面向决策的一体化建模方法及其在兵力筹划中的应用

在对军事决策问题的主要特点进行分析的基础上,提出从军事概念模型到数学模型再到定性推理模型的一体化建模思想.以空军航空兵遂行直接航空火力支援任务为想定背景,根据EATI模板,利用基于UML的Rose工具依次对想定任务的实体、任务、交互等进行分析;对于兵力筹划中的结构化问题建立了机会约束多目标规划数学模型;对于非结构化问题则构造了推理机,推理机体现了定量与定性相结合的决策分析思想.最后,以一个实例验证文章思路的可行性.     

How old is too old? An economic approach to replacing military aircraft

The US Air Force is asking when to replace its aging aircraft. We develop a framework to identify economically optimal replacement strategies that recognizes cost trade-offs and incorporates age effects. We also preview a stochastic methodology. We use the framework to identify an optimal strategy, defined by the replacement age, for a generic fleet and conduct a sensitivity analysis. Quantitative illustrations show that the range of strategies that provides close-to-optimal outcomes widens as the operating and support (O&S) cost growth rate decreases and the ratio of the acquisition price to the initial O&S cost increases. A wider range implies more decision-making leeway.     

Estimating defence budget saving from disarmament: the United States’ case

Probing the technology in the production of US national defence by using a dynamic cost‐function model with adjustment costs, this paper evaluates the effect of reducing the level of national defence on the defence budget saving. Our inquiry involves estimating the defence production structure without output data for non‐market goods that are normally unavailable. Our findings include: (i) the United States behaves rationally to minimize cost in the production of national defence; (ii) the adjustment costs are larger in disarmament than in military build‐up; (iii) due to the adjustment costs peculiar to disarmament, the defence budget saving from disarmament appears small, but cutbacks allow great savings on the defence budget.     

Do Military Expenditures Crowd-out Health Expenditures? Evidence from around the World, 2000–2013

Abstract

The paper examines the relationship between health and military expenditures using pooled cross-sectional (197 countries) and time series (2000–2013) data. Simultaneous equation models were employed to estimate the relationship between an array of public sector expenditures in order to address potential endogeneity. Our empirical findings strongly support the crowding-out hypothesis whereby increased military expenditures reduce the capacity of government to direct expenditures to health expenditures. These findings were robust to alternative specifications explored in the sensitivity analyses. Compared with upper-middle-income countries, the crowding-out effect became more pronounced among lower-middle-income countries. Consequently, this study shows that increased military expenditures negatively impacts health expenditures, and therefore poses as an important risk factor for population health and individual well-being. Moreover, it is the poorest of nations that are most sensitive to the negative effects of increased military expenditures.     

A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL FOR ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND GOVERNMENT DEBT IN THE EU

This paper examines the impact of military spending on general government debt in the enlarged European Union (EU) countries. For this purpose, we use panel data analysis and provide estimates from a dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) panel model. The dynamics are found to be important and the results suggest that military expenditures do have a large positive impact on the share of general government debt in the EU.     

战时装备调配保障决策模型构建研究

分析了战时装备调配保障决策的特点,运用模糊聚类分析法对装备调配保障对象进行了分组和优先级排序,以此为基础,运用目标规划法构建了战时装备调配保障决策模型,最后,通过实例验证了模型的可行性和有效性．     

基于效能的舰艇电子对抗训练效果评估方法

摘 要：为解决舰艇电子对抗专业训练缺乏统一评估标准与方法体系等实际评估难题;采用系统分析方法结合舰艇电子对抗专业训练实际;研究提出了基于“任务要求分解”的作战效能量化指标体系构建方法、训练效果表达方法及实用评估指标体系、定量指标评估模型、评估标准等舰艇电子对抗训练效果评估方法体系;能够满足专业训练效果评估所需,对其它专业军事训练效果评估工作亦具有借鉴意义。     

内编队地球重力场测量性能数值分析

内编队系统通过实现内卫星纯引力轨道环境和内卫星精密定轨,完成高精度地球重力场测量,实现了不依赖于加速度计的重力卫星实施新途径。针对内编队重力场测量性能难以解析分析的情况,基于MATLAB并行程序设计进行了重力场测量数值模拟,获得了内编队重力场测量的有效阶数及其精度。在内编队轨道高度为300km、内卫星干扰力为1.0×10-10m/s2、外卫星定轨精度为3cm、内外卫星相对状态测量精度为1mm的条件下,计算得到内编队测量重力场的有效阶数为72,相应的大地水准面累积误差为44cm,重力异常累积误差为4.5mGal,由此可知内编队测量重力场的有效阶数主要分布在低阶部分。     

基于组合赋权雷达图实现电网电能质量综合评估

将改进的组合赋权雷达图方法用于电网电能质量综合评估。对主观、客观赋权法组合,基于组合权重与原权重之间的偏差尽可能小的优化思想,求取雷达图中各项指标的组合权值。利用各指标对应的扇形区域的对角线作为指标轴绘制雷达图,不仅最大限度体现各指标的独立权重,也反映了各指标之间的相互影响。利用雷达图的面积和周长两个变量完成对电能质量的综合评估。最后通过应用实例,验证了论文方法的合理性和在电能质量综合评估中的有效性。     

基于联合相似测度的SAR图像边缘点特征配准方法

针对SAR图像配准过程中几何变换影响特征匹配稳健性和适应性的问题,提出了一种在特征匹配过程中直接解算几何变换模型的边缘点特征配准方法。利用SAR图像边缘点的梯度和方向特征,基于像素迁移思想,定义了图像匹配的联合相似度——联合特征均方和(SSJF),并建立了SAR图像边缘点集相似性匹配准则;基于方向模板提出了改进的ROEWA算子;利用改进的遗传算法(GA)来进行相似度的全局优化搜索,获取配准模型参数;利用多幅SAR图像的配准试验,对本文方法的性能进行了验证。