Transient analysis of Markov models of fault‐tolerant systems with deferred repair using split regenerative randomization

The (standard) randomization method is an attractive alternative for the transient analysis of continuous time Markov models. The main advantages of the method are numerical stability, well‐controlled computation error, and ability to specify the computation error in advance. However, the fact that the method can be computationally very expensive limits its applicability. In this paper, we develop a new method called split regenerative randomization, which, having the same good properties as standard randomization, can be significantly more efficient. The method covers reliability‐like models with a particular but quite general structure and requires the selection of a subset of states and a regenerative state satisfying some conditions. For a class of continuous time Markov models, model class C₂, including typical failure/repair reliability‐like models with exponential failure and repair time distributions and deferred repair, natural selections are available for both the subset of states and the regenerative state and, for those natural selections, theoretical results are available assessing the efficiency of the method in terms of “visible” model characteristics. Those results can be used to anticipate when the method can be expected to be competitive. We illustrate the application of the method using a large class C₂ model and show that for models in that class the method can indeed be significantly more efficient than previously available randomization‐based methods. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

基于OLS算法的导弹气动系数模型优选

针对导弹控制系统中的气动力建模问题,将正交最小二乘法用于模型结构优选,并提出一种候选模型集预处理方法,用以剔除模型中的相关项在此基础上建立了导弹气动力模型优选方法。将其应用于一种导弹滚转力矩系数模型,进行了仿真计算,取得了与风洞试验数据一致的计算结果。结果显示该方法在导弹气动力建模中有效可行,为构建最优化的模型结构提供指导。     

基于复杂排队系统的TOC服务模型与性能分析

三值光学计算机的运算请求处理过程缺乏合理、系统的性能评价标准与体系。基于M/M/1、M/M/n、MX/M/1和M/MB/1构成的复杂排队系统,构建了三值光学计算机的四阶段服务模型,同时建立了立即调度和结束时调度两种不同策略与算法。基于不同排队系统讨论了运算请求的接收时间、预处理时间、运算时间和发送时间的计算方法,进而得到最终响应时间。最后,通过仿真实验对两种策略的模型进行验证,结果表明结束时调度策略明显优于立即调度策略。     

基于瞬态冲击法的方钢管混凝土柱脱空检测试验

通过对有脱空缺陷的方钢管混凝土柱试件进行瞬态冲击作用下的检测试验,提出了根据振动信号频率变化、频谱峰值和WVD时频分布中频率的时间连续性等特征来进行脱空检测的新方法。基于WVD时频分布特性,提出了使用平均频率作为脱空判别指标。结果表明：当方钢管混凝土柱存在脱空,振动信号的平均频率发生明显降低,频谱图中频率成分简单,归一化频谱峰值高,在WVD时频分布三维图上呈现沿时间轴连续的偏平峰。说明该方法对检测方钢管混凝土柱脱空具有一定的有效性。     

Theoretical and numerical investigations on the headspace of cartridge cases considering axial deformation and movement

The cartridge case headspace is the axial clearance between the cartridge and bolt of an automatic weapon, and influences the reliability and security of the weapon. Accordingly, theoretical and numerical studies were conducted to analyze the dynamic response of cartridge cases during internal impact considering the initial radial clearances between the cartridge case and chamber. A theoretical model was proposed to predict the cartridge case headspace considering both the deformation and movement of the cartridge case and confirmed by the results of nonlinear finite element simulations. The differences between the results of the conventional static model and the dynamic model were then comprehensively evaluated. The effects of the angle between the cartridge and chamber, the cartridge case material, and the internal impact pressure on the predicted headspace value were also analyzed. The dynamic response of the cartridge case predicted by the dynamic model was more accurate than that predicted by the conventional static model. The internal impact pressure, pressure change rate, and cartridge material were all found to affect the predicted headspace.     

‘Responsibility to protect’ and the African Union: Assessing the AU’s capacity to respond to regional complex humanitarian and political emergencies

Despite its many institutional and political weaknesses and limitations, the African Union (AU) has been developing a variety of tools and mechanisms to respond effectively to complex disasters and emergencies (both natural and manmade) by building up a comprehensive regional security architecture. Furthermore, it has become the first and only regional or international organisation to enshrine the principle of ‘responsibility to protect’ (R2P) in its Constitutive Act. This regional approach to and formal endorsement of the R2P principle allowed it to assume a particular place in the promotion of peace and security in its area. This article aims to critically assess the effectiveness of the AU on the African continent by exploring its real capacity in preventing and responding to emergencies and violent conflicts, and therefore in rendering the principle of R2P operational. The article argues that the formalisation of principles does not necessarily mean their effective implementation. The organisation's use of the R2P principle is also greatly conditioned by internal and external factors.     

消防部队火灾扑救和应急救援心理训练实践与探索

消防部队承担着复杂而危险的火灾扑救和应急救援任务,战斗中常会出现各种不良心理,心理素质是影响部队战斗力的重要因素。开展心理素质训练,提高消防官兵心理素质和心理适应能力是一个亟待解决的问题。阐述了消防部队火灾扑救和应急救援工作实际以及有关心理学知识,研究如何开展火灾扑救和应急救援心理训练,提高消防官兵的心理素质和心理适应能力。     

论岛屿应急救援体系的构建

为全面提高海南省岛屿应急救援能力,有效防范和应对灾害事故和突发事件,保护人民生命财产安全,提出建立岛屿应急救援体系的思路,构建岛屿应急救援专业队伍和多种形式消防队伍有效联动的综合性应急救援力量体系。     

无人直升机辨识的一种新方法

针对无人直升机的辨识建模问题,提出了把频率响应辨识法和遗传算法相结合的一种新的辨识方法.该方法充分结合了频率响应辨识法抗噪声能力强、对输入信号通用性强、以及遗传算法的全局寻优特性的优点,极大地提高了辨识的准确性.与最小二乘法、Levy方法的对比仿真结果表明,这种方法辨识精度更高,具有重要的工程使用价值.     

固体发动机尾部点火性能影响因素分析

采用准一维非定常数值模型,对某小型固体发动机尾部点火瞬态过程进行性能预示;以预示结果为基础,对尾部点火性能主要影响因素进行了参数研究.研究结果可为尾部点火器和喷管堵盖的点火匹配性设计提供有益指导.