Democracy and peace: Reply to oneal and russett

The criticism of James, Solberg and Wolfson (JSW) (1999) by Oneal and Russett (OR) is not responsive to the methodologica] issues at stake. JSW argued that war is an endogenous feature of the world political and economic system. If its causes are to be measured, it must be as a structural equation in a simultaneous system. Wedded to the idea that “democracies never fight each other,” OR rely on a single equation to justify their view. JSW claim that such an equation may be an ad hoc reduced form with no causal implications unless the equation is explicitly identified as a structural equation. JSW expand the model to explain democracy and conflict as two endogenous variables. JSW do not claim to have discovered the true relationships between these variables by their minimal expansion of the structural relation. They do show that unless these (and other) variables are treated as part of a system, the results are unstable, contradictory, of minimal size and not a reliable guide to public policy.     

The economic effects of international trade in armaments in the major western industrialized and developing countries†

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the impact of exports and imports of armaments (based on 1980 data) on sectoral trade and employment and other economic variables in the major Western trading countries. If the United States were to place a unilateral embargo on its arms exports and imports, we calculate that it would experience a comparatively small amount of employment displacement in the aggregate and that most of this displacement would occur in the transport equipment and electric machinery sectors. If all the major Western countries were to place a multilateral embargo on their arms trade, the sectoral effects on the United States would be similarly small. But the sectoral effects in several other industrialized and developing countries measured as a percentage of sectoral employment, would be larger, indicating potential short‐run adjustment problems in labor markets in some cases.     

France and its allies: A comparative study of defence spending trends since 1985*

Within the EU France devotes to defence the largest financial and human resources although it is not the richest country, nor has it the largest population or labour force. The cost of nuclear weapons accounts for only a small fraction of this abnormally high French defence effort. If France had restructured its military capabilities at the same rate as its principal Allies during the 1985–1994 period, then French defence outlays would be about 20% less than at present. The fundamental reasons for France's excess defence outlay comprise virtual total dependence on French sources for equipment, produced in very small numbers; a military presence outside of Europe; and too many personnel. These deficiencies, and the consequent absence hitherto of a “peace dividend”, indicate a failure to identify the country's real strategic requirements, and a lack of will to reorganise efficiently French defence. The recently announced reform towards an all‐professional force is unlikely to achieve the potential and desirable improvement in cost‐effectiveness.     

Introduction

ABSTRACT

The new nuclear history can make a critical contribution by forcing us to reconsider or reframe the theoretical premises of the concepts we apply to our understanding of the present – and with which we try to navigate the future. It bears on fundamental questions, such as: How should the US manage its alliances? Should it establish a multilateral nuclear policy dialogue in Asia? In what depth should it discuss issues of doctrine and targeting with its Asian allies? What capabilities might reassure European allies in light of current Russian revisionism? Could nuclear war be limited and controlled in an East Asian maritime arena? Do nuclear weapons strengthen an alliance, or do they introduce a divisive bone of contention? Is extended nuclear deterrence (END) stabilizing or is it on the contrary pushing the allies to ask for more? What is the relationship between nuclear and conventional forces in END credibility? How do nuclear alliances contribute to international security and international order? The lessons and insights from these papers, which look at five historical cases of US extended deterrence during the Cold War, should help us think about crucial current issues, and be of use both to historians who want to have a better understanding of the Cold War past and to policymakers who are currently grappling with these issues.     

俄罗斯特种部队解救人质的经验教训及启示

1995年以来,俄罗斯多次发生大规模人质被劫事件。俄政府采取了各种有效的解救措施,在强行解救、特种武器的使用等方面获取了一定经验。但也存在行动迟缓、情报不准等问题,并造成了一些不必要的人员伤亡和损失。认真研究俄罗斯近几年解救人质的方法及经验教训,对我们公安武警边防部队未来解救人质,具有一定的启示作用。     

精神困境·救赎之路·孤独之旅—谈鲁迅与史铁生

史铁生是当代著名作家,他的作品思想深邃,精神探索超前,艺术方面也达到一定高度,鲁迅对他的影响很深刻,二人的创作无论在内容方面还是在艺术方面都有异曲同工之妙,二人共同关注着精神困境和生命本真,共同寻找和思考救赎之路,并且用三种相同的方式表达孤独。     

别斯兰事件后俄罗斯反恐机制的重建

随着苏联的解体,本来著称于世的强效反恐机制一夜之间分崩离析,反恐部门权责不清,协调不畅,反恐不力,恐怖势力乘虚而入,俄罗斯频频处于恐怖事件威胁之下。别斯兰事件给俄罗斯敲响了警钟。通过实施一系列有效措施,俄罗斯重建反恐机制,并取得明显效果。     

模糊偏序关系的一种信息集成方法

以模糊超过关系、模糊不协调关系为例,就模糊偏序关系给出了一种基于分组加权极大(极小)算子的信息集成方法,讨论了该方法的一致性、非独裁性等性质.     

关于联合国维和警察公共关系工作的几点思考

阐述了开展联合国维和警察公共关系工作的必要性与紧迫性,分析了开展联合国维和警察公共关系工作的原则与步骤,从加强联合国维和警察与各种传播媒体之间的公共关系工作;加强联合国维和警察与任务区民众之间的公共关系工作;加强联合国维和警察机构与联合国其他机构、各国驻维和任务区外交代表机构以及当地政府之间的公共关系工作;加强联合国维和警察内部派遣国警队之间的公共关系工作;重视发挥维和警察个体的公关作用;及时处理突发事件引起的公关危机等6个方面提出了开展维和警察公共关系工作的具体措施。     

美军维修改革发展研究

维修保障是武器装备形成战斗力的关键要素。随着国际形势和美国国内经济、科技等方面的发展变化,美军的维修策略、维修技术以及维修保障信息化等方面也在不断变革。总结了2000年前后至今,美军在维修保障方面的重大变革,对其发展趋势进行了预测,并结合我军装备保障实际,积极探索切实可行的有效对策。