基于兰彻斯特型方程的网络攻防行动分析

互联网的高速发展在带来社会发展与文明进步的同时，也让世界对网络更加依赖，随之而来的网络空间军备竞赛、网络犯罪和网络恐怖主义，使网络空间的攻防行动变得愈加频繁，网络空间安全形势愈发严峻。本文利用兰彻斯特型方程建立网络攻防模型来分析网络攻防行动，证明网络攻防行动是非对称的作战手段和新时代的游击战争，并得出对我国网络空间国防力量建设的启示。      

Explaining the security paradigm shift: strategic culture,epistemic communities,and Israel’s changing national security policy

The paper’s main argument is that Israel’s security policy, which traditionally focused on defending its territorial integrity against regular Arab armed forces, was, by the 2010s, transformed into one that focuses on facing a variety of state- and non-state-based threats. Neo-realist explanations could neither account for the contested nature of the security debate during this period, nor the inconsistent evolution of the policy. The present study aims to solve this conundrum by introducing an alternative approach known as 4th generation strategic culture research. The paper is comprised of four parts. First, the origins and evolution of strategic culture are reviewed, with emphasis placed on the commonly accepted weaknesses that, to date, have prevented it from being used as a testable theoretical concept, and subsequently as an explanatory factor for security policy changes. The second part presents the “modernist constructivism” approach that bridges the gap between traditional constructivism and hypothesis-driven research design. Next, the paper introduces the emerging fourth generation in strategic culture literature, followed by a conceptual framework designed to resolve the inherent weaknesses of the more traditional approaches. Finally, this conceptual framework is applied to analyse the transformation of Israel’s security policy between 1982 and 2014.