A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation

Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 489–500, 2014     

库存照明弹药照明炬照明时间研究

照明弹药经过长期贮存后，照明炬中照明剂的理化性能可能已发生变化从而影响其照明效应。通过抽取库存照明弹药样品，分解出弹丸中的照明炬进行静态燃烧试验，测定其光学性能。由测得的数据可以绘制出照明炬发光强度和时间的曲线，分析得出照明弹药经过长期贮存后其照明时间仍符合设计要求。     

On the (S − 1, S) lost sales inventory model with priority demand classes

In this paper an inventory model with several demand classes, prioritised according to importance, is analysed. We consider a lot‐for‐lot or (S ? 1, S) inventory model with lost sales. For each demand class there is a critical stock level at and below which demand from that class is not satisfied from stock on hand. In this way stock is retained to meet demand from higher priority demand classes. A set of such critical levels determines the stocking policy. For Poisson demand and a generally distributed lead time, we derive expressions for the service levels for each demand class and the average total cost per unit time. Efficient solution methods for obtaining optimal policies, with and without service level constraints, are presented. Numerical experiments in which the solution methods are tested demonstrate that significant cost reductions can be achieved by distinguishing between demand classes. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 593–610, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10032     

Stochastic production capacity: A bane or a boon for quick response supply chains?

The quick response (QR) system that can cope with demand volatility by shortening lead time has been well studied in the literature. Much of the existing literature assumes implicitly or explicitly that the manufacturers under QR can always meet the demand because the production capacity is always sufficient. However, when the order comes with a short lead time under QR, availability of the manufacturer's production capacity is not guaranteed. This motivates us to explore QR in supply chains with stochastic production capacity. Specifically, we study QR in a two-echelon supply chain with Bayesian demand information updating. We consider the situation where the manufacturer's production capacity under QR is uncertain. We first explore how stochastic production capacity affects supply chain decisions and QR implementation. We then incorporate the manufacturer's ability to expand capacity into the model. We explore how the manufacturer determines the optimal capacity expansion decision, and the value of such an ability to the supply chain and its agents. Finally, we extend the model to the two-stage two-ordering case and derive the optimal ordering policy by dynamic programming. We compare the single-ordering and two-ordering cases to generate additional managerial insights about how ordering flexibility affects QR when production capacity is stochastic. We also explore the transparent supply chain and find that our main results still hold.     

炮射盘旋侦察弹气动特性研究

通过对炮射侦察弹盘旋飞行质点弹道方程组的模型仿真,依据侦察弹战术、技术指标的要求,计算、分析和比较了不同升力系数下弹丸盘旋飞行时的弹道图形,结果表明在升阻比为3 8442时,侦察弹的气动布局最为理想。     

面向仿真的C4ISR系统领域分析与需求复用研究

面向C4ISR系统需求开发中的仿真支持问题,将复用作为一种的C4ISR系统需求模型的构建方法,可以快速形成一个有效的领域需求模型支持系统仿真验证。本文研究了C4ISR系统需求的领域性与领域需求共性问题,在此基础上研究了C4ISR系统需求工程中的需求框架、需求本体以及需求组件等不同粒度的复用方法,分别对上述三种方法在领域应用中的不同作用进行了对比分析。     

弹药装填机器人作业平台仿真系统设计与实现

针对弹药装填机器人作业过程复杂的问题,基于作业任务实用性和可操作性的要求,设计了一种作业平台仿真系统。在深入分析弹药装填机器人作业任务和工作过程的基础上,构建了总体设计方案,研究了仿真系统的稳定性技术,进行了运动控制、数据采集以及传感器精度等硬件部分设计和模块化技术的软件设计,建立了弹药装填机器人仿真系统。仿真结果表明：该设计能够实现对弹药装填机器人的控制和实时作业。     

装备保障需求开发方法

为解决装备保障需求开发规范化的问题,界定了装备保障需求的内涵,分析了装备保障需求开发的目标,提出了＂元任务＂的概念,阐述了＂任务确认-能力集成-能力开发＂的装备保障需求开发方法,并通过实例分析验证了方法的有效性,对于规范装备保障需求描述形式和完善装备保障需求开发机制具有一定的参考价值。     

灰色模糊理论在弹药安全管理系统评价中的应用

弹药安全管理系统评价是综合运用安全系统工程的方法对系统的安全性进行度量和预测。将灰色模糊数学理论应用于弹药安全管理系统评价,通过分析影响安全管理水平的因素,建立了系统综合评价指标体系,在此基础上进行了系统综合评价并得到了满意的效果。     

人机工程学在弹药包装箱设计中的应用

在对我军弹药包装箱统计分析的基础上,阐述了弹药包装设计中运用安全人机工程学的重要意义。系统分析了现役弹药包装箱的现状,并且提出了符合我军人体特征的包装箱设计方法与要求,为弹药包装箱的改进提供了参考。