封装对螺旋线圈发射器互感梯度的影响

互感梯度是决定线圈炮加速力的主要因素。本文以螺旋线圈炮为例,建立了计算互感梯度的二维有限元模型,对四种不同属性的封装材料和封装尺寸对互感梯度的影响做出了分析和比较,并给出了不同的封装材料及尺寸下封装的电流密度和磁场分布图。分析表明,互感梯度受到封装材料电导率和磁导率的双重制约。电导率决定了封装中感应涡流的大小;磁导率决定了对磁场的加强程度。减小封装与线圈的间距,导磁材料的磁场加强效果更好,而导电材料的涡流效应也更明显;增加封装的厚度,导磁材料可以更好地增强磁场,但导电材料由于电阻更小涡流效应更明显。为了实现互感梯度的最大化,可以在减小封装与驱动线圈间距并增加封装厚度的情况下使用高磁导率的硅钢片制作封装,硅钢片的厚度应该尽量小从而削弱涡流效应。     

基于改进广义成本函数的可靠性分配优化

可靠性分配优化问题的难点在于影响分配的各类因素与可靠性指标间关系的描述与表达.从可靠性成本与各类影响因素的内在关系人手,通过改进广义成本函数进行各类影响因素的融合处理,构建得出新的可靠性分配优化模型实现可靠性指标的综合求解.     

半预制破片PELE弹丸对武装直升机毁伤效能

为研究半预制破片PELE弹丸对武装直升机的毁伤效能,选取代表性的阿帕奇武装直升机为研究对象,建立了阿帕奇武装直升机关键部件驾驶舱和发动机舱的等效模型,在此基础上应用ANSYS/LS-DYNA就半预制破片PELE弹丸对阿帕奇武装直升机的毁伤效能进行了数值分析.结果表明:半预制破片PELE弹丸能有效穿透阿帕奇武装直升机的防护装甲,在穿透防护靶后弹丸壳体大面积碎裂,产生大量具有较高轴向剩余速度和一定径向飞散速度的破片,形成一个大面积的破片场,这些破片及弹丸剩余部分可对武装直升机内部人员及仪器设备造成有效毁伤,极大地增强了PELE弹丸的毁伤效能.     

熵权灰色关联分析法的坦克夜间射击目标选择

针对夜间战场上坦克目标威胁评估问题,结合多目标决策问题,将熵权和灰色关联分析法相结合,提出一种基于熵权灰色关联分析的坦克夜间射击目标选择模型,并详细给出了该算法的思想、算法.该方法克服了传统评估算法中主观赋值的缺陷,最后利用实例证明了该方法的有效性.     

空气/煤油/水燃气发生器点火特性试验研究

燃气发生器是超燃冲压发动机地面试验系统中的关键设备,为提高系统安全性和经济性设计了空气/煤油/水燃气发生器,在富燃状态下进行了一系列点火试验,试验结果表明：该型燃气发生器,实现可靠点火的余氧系数下限为0.51;水的加入使得化学反应速率和火焰传播速度降低,燃气发生器点火和火焰稳定困难,提高余氧系数可以提高点火可靠性。同时水的加入容易引起燃烧不稳定,通过提高余氧系数可消除低频不稳定燃烧。     

Investigating optimal replacement of aging air force systems

An availability‐oriented approach has been developed to decide when to replace an aging system. For an existing system, it is optimal to operate another year if and only if the incremental cost per available year is less than the lifetime average cost per available year of a new aircraft. We illustrate our approach using United States Air Force KC‐135 tanker data. In demonstrating our approach, we find it will be optimal to replace the KC‐135 by the end of the decade.     

A LONG‐RUN ANALYSIS OF DEFENCE SPENDING IN THE NATO COUNTRIES (1960–99)

This paper analyses the long‐run demand for defence output through a homogeneous treatment of 15 NATO member countries between 1960 and 1999. We carry out a progressive study of the interactions between either defence spending or defence burden and their main determinants: income, external threat and allied military spending. To that end, we use time‐series analysis with endogenously determined structural breaks. We further consider individual country functions related to one another through a common correlated effects method, in order to take into account explicitly the connections between members of an alliance.     

Military Spending and Income Inequality:Evidence on Cointegration and Causality for Turkey,1963–2007

This paper investigates a series of unit root, cointegration and causality tests to ascertain the direction of causality between the growth of GNP and defence expenditure in Turkey for the years 1955–2000. The main conclusion is that there is a long‐run equilibrium relationship between GNP and defence expenditures. Furthermore, the short run causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional causality between variables, from defence expenditure to economic growth. In order to see the effect of a shock, we employed impulse response analyses. The results show that GNP decreased during the period then output finally recovered from the initial shock to defence expenditures.     

TERRORISM AND TOURISM: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Using a time series method called ‘transfer function’, this paper examines the effect of terrorism on tourism in Turkey. The results indicate that there exists a negative but small impact of terrorism, which is observed within approximately one year. However, terrorist attacks in Turkey have accounted for a reduction of six million foreign tourists over the last nine years. Moreover, the economic cost of terrorism in the tourism industry was more than $700 million in 2006. However, terrorist attacks in continental Europe and America, and an active war involving a neighboring country, had no effects on tourism in Turkey.     

9/11: WHAT DID WE KNOW AND WHEN DID WE KNOW IT?

In February 1998, Osama Bin Laden published a signed statement calling for a fatwa against the United States for its having ‘declared war against God’. As we now know, the fatwa resulted in the unprecedented attack of 9/11. The issue of whether or not 9/11 was in any way predictable culminated in the public debate between Richard Clarke, former CIA Director George Tenet and the White House. This paper examines whether there was any evidence of a structural change in the terrorism data at or after February 1998 but prior to June 2001, controlling for the possibility of other breaks in earlier periods. In doing so, we use the standard Bai–Perron procedure and our sequential importance sampling (SIS) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for identifying an unknown number of breaks at unknown dates. We conclude that sophisticated statistical time‐series analysis would not have predicted 9/11.