基于兰彻斯特型方程的网络攻防行动分析

互联网的高速发展在带来社会发展与文明进步的同时，也让世界对网络更加依赖，随之而来的网络空间军备竞赛、网络犯罪和网络恐怖主义，使网络空间的攻防行动变得愈加频繁，网络空间安全形势愈发严峻。本文利用兰彻斯特型方程建立网络攻防模型来分析网络攻防行动，证明网络攻防行动是非对称的作战手段和新时代的游击战争，并得出对我国网络空间国防力量建设的启示。      

弹道导弹攻防效果评估仿真研究

针对典型的弹道导弹攻防过程,将其从雷达对抗的角度进行建模分层,建立了适用于弹道导弹攻防的评估指标体系.由于影响攻防效果的诸多因素大多具有模糊性,故将模糊综合评估引入到弹道导弹攻防对抗领域.从评估仿真结果可以看出,改进后的模糊方法应用在弹道导弹攻防评估上是可行的,对弹道导弹作战体系有一定的指导意义.     

The case of Donald Rumsfeld: leadership traps in national security

Taking its point of departure in Donald Rumsfeld’s second term as US Secretary of Defense (2001–2006), this article analyses the crisis of strategic leadership in Western national security. Three “traps” are identified that explain why Donald Rumsfeld ultimately was a failure as defence secretary and demonstrate the perils of national security governance. These traps are termed the inquisitor trap, the strong leader trap and the delegation trap. It is argued that our understanding of strategic leadership in national security, particularly in defence, can benefit from insights gained from the study of strategic leadership in business. As such, this article engages the recent trend of merging insights from business and military strategy.     

基于模糊AHP评判的舰艇编队防空队形优化研究

针对队形变化给编队防空能力带来的五个方面的影响,建立了编队防空队形综合评判的指标体系,并应用模糊层次分析法建立了编队防空队形优选模型。以驱逐舰艇为例,求出了在一定条件下的最佳防空队形——菱形队形。该模型简单易行,容易在计算机上实现,初步解决了编队防空队形优选问题。     

Explaining the security paradigm shift: strategic culture,epistemic communities,and Israel’s changing national security policy

The paper’s main argument is that Israel’s security policy, which traditionally focused on defending its territorial integrity against regular Arab armed forces, was, by the 2010s, transformed into one that focuses on facing a variety of state- and non-state-based threats. Neo-realist explanations could neither account for the contested nature of the security debate during this period, nor the inconsistent evolution of the policy. The present study aims to solve this conundrum by introducing an alternative approach known as 4th generation strategic culture research. The paper is comprised of four parts. First, the origins and evolution of strategic culture are reviewed, with emphasis placed on the commonly accepted weaknesses that, to date, have prevented it from being used as a testable theoretical concept, and subsequently as an explanatory factor for security policy changes. The second part presents the “modernist constructivism” approach that bridges the gap between traditional constructivism and hypothesis-driven research design. Next, the paper introduces the emerging fourth generation in strategic culture literature, followed by a conceptual framework designed to resolve the inherent weaknesses of the more traditional approaches. Finally, this conceptual framework is applied to analyse the transformation of Israel’s security policy between 1982 and 2014.     

群体决策与个人决策的选择

决策对于管理者来说至关重要,因为它关系到人们能否顺利实现目标.何时采用群体决策或个人决策,取决于三个方面的问题:群体决策和个人决策的效率,群体决策和个人决策的冒险倾向,以及小团体意识.