Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

存在工作历程产品的加速寿命试验统计分析

加速寿命试验(ALT)可在较短时间内获得产品的寿命及可靠性信息.利用ALT对产品的剩余寿命进行评估时,常常将已工作过的产品进行抽样并投入试验,在这一类样本的ALT数据统计分析时如何处理初始工作时间,成为ALT应用中的一个重要问题.工程实际中评估此类样本的剩余寿命时常常忽略初始工作时间,将其视为"用后如新"或"无记忆性"产品.但此假设必须以产品寿命服从指数分布为前提,而大部分机电产品的寿命服从Weibull分布,因而该方法在应用时必然会产生较大误差.针对这一问题提出了一种新的基于时间折算的ALT数据统计分析方法,并利用Monte Carlo仿真对其估计特性进行对比研究,结果表明此方法能有效评估存在初始工作历程产品的剩余寿命,估计精度优于原方法.     

一种新的基于粗糙集的连续属性离散化算法

粗糙集理论作为一种新的处理含糊和不确定性问题的数学工具,已成为国际学术界的一个前沿的研究领域.传统的粗糙集理论只能对数据库中的离散属性进行处理,而绝大多数现实的数据库既包含了离散属性,又包含了连续属性.针对传统粗糙集理论的这一缺陷,提出了一种改进的基于断点重要性的属性离散化方法.最后,通过实例分析说明该方法是有效的.     

Optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans for log‐location‐scale distributions

This article presents new tools and methods for finding optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans. First, we present an approach to calculate the large‐sample approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a quantile of the failure time distribution at use conditions from a step‐stress accelerated life test. The approach allows for multistep stress changes and censoring for general log‐location‐scale distributions based on a cumulative exposure model. As an application of this approach, the optimum variance is studied as a function of shape parameter for both Weibull and lognormal distributions. Graphical comparisons among test plans using step‐up, step‐down, and constant‐stress patterns are also presented. The results show that depending on the values of the model parameters and quantile of interest, each of the three test plans can be preferable in terms of optimum variance. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

计算机控制发动机喷油量的分析

分析了在计算机控制下的喷油量调控原理,阐述了基本喷油量、校正喷油量、开环控制喷油量和最终闭环喷油量的数学模型.     

稳像式火控系统实车训练装置的研制

该训练装置可以在安装稳像式火控系统的坦克上完成射击基础练习的训练与考核.它以单片机为核心,在射击操作与实车相同的条件下,具有自动检靶,自动记录发射数、命中数,自动变换目标,自动报警,自动评定和显示成绩等功能.射手可独自在坦克内操作,自行开始练习,自我检查操作结果.     

基于D-S理论的综合故障诊断决策方法

从解决综合诊断中多诊断方法诊断结果的综合问题出发,介绍了D-S理论的有关概念和公式以及组合规则,提出了D-S理论在综合故障诊断决策中的应用方法,解决了综合诊断系统中多诊断方法诊断输出结果的综合问题,减少了系统输出不确定性,提高系统诊断可靠性和准确性。     

空战关键信息与战术规则提取算法

将粗糙集理论引入到空战研究中 ,提出了一种通过属性约简提取空战决策的关键信息和战术规则的算法 ,以便对空战过程中的冗余信息进行约简 ,提高决策实时性。通过一个空战战术选择示例对该算法进行了验证 ,结果表明 :在保证空战战术分类结果不变的情况下 ,该算法可提取出对空战决策起关键作用的信息以及最小简化战术规则。     

一种灰色模糊多属性决策模型

实际中的决策问题常常具有不确定性和灰色性。根据灰色系统和模糊数学的一些理论,同时考虑一个问题中的模糊性——隶属度与灰色性——灰度,将其综合起来表示为灰色模糊数的概念。在原有多属性决策(MADM)方法的基础上提出了一种灰色模糊多属性决策模型,并给出了模型的求解方法。待决策的各方案的排序是依据其到灰色模糊理想解的灰色模糊距离大小而进行的。     

防空作战指挥队决策建模

对战术级防空作战实施过程进行了分析研究,着重研究了各种指挥方式下,防空体系整体效能的变化情况。运用队决策理论对战术决策过程进行了详细分析,提出基于分布式队决策的防空作战指挥模型,对防空C4ISR系统构建以及防空作战指挥的实践有很强的指导意义。