Warning whom,for which response?

In June 2000, the Conference of Heads of State and Government of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) adopted the Protocol on the establishment of the Peace and Security Council for Central Africa (COPAX), with its two technical structures, namely the Central African Multinational Force (FOMAC) and the Central African Early Warning Mechanism (MARAC). MARAC is tasked with collecting and analysing data for the early detection and prevention of conflicts and crises. It currently consists of the Central Structure located at the ECCAS Executive Secretariat in Libreville (Gabon) and 31 Decentralised Correspondents spread throughout the ten member states of ECCAS. This article assesses the performance of MARAC in the light of its assigned objectives. Bearing in mind the peace and security challenges facing the central African sub-region, the central argument of this article is that while the establishment of MARAC is commendable, it flowed more from the logic and context of the establishment of similar mechanisms on the African continent during the same period than from any displayed capacity and/or readiness on the part of ECCAS to implement the recommendations due to emanate from such a structure.     

Revisiting money-laundering legislation in Zimbabwe and the role of international organisations

ABSTRACT

International Organisations (IOs) are crucial actors in spearheading the global adoption of anti-money-laundering (AML) legislation. However, the extent to which AML legislation has been implemented in Zimbabwe under the aegis of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and East Africa and Southern Africa Money Laundering Group (ESSAMALG) may put the efficacy of legislation passed at the behest of IOs into question. This article suggests that glocalisation may enhance the international fight against money-laundering. That is to say, international standards should be applied domestically with due regard for local legislative environment.     

动态液-液旋流分离器油滴运动轨迹模拟

针对动态液-液旋流分离器油、水两相过程,从流体力学基本方程出发,采用雷诺应力模型、QUICK差分格式和SIMPLE算法模拟分析动态液-液旋流分离器内的流场;并以此为基础,采用离散相模型和多相流模型,模拟油、水两相分离过程和油滴运动轨迹.模拟结果表明:油滴粒径决定其在旋流分离器中的运动轨迹、速度及分离特性,大粒径油滴更易于向中心聚集形成油芯,油芯的形状与油滴的大小直接相关;动态液-液旋流分离器的主要分离过程在转筒内完成,油相分离效率随着油滴粒径的增大而提高.     

基于无标度网络的防空反导系统构建

构建高效的防空反导系统是防空反导作战的基础。运用复杂网络理论,建立基于无标度网络防空反导系统模型,并将其统计特征同基于WS小世界网络的模型进行了比较,得出基于无标度网络的防空反导系统有更好鲁棒性和抗毁性,对网络化防空反导系统的构建有一定参考价值。     

The future of the defence firm in small and medium countries

The Western European defence industry used to be characterized by numerous constraints, especially in the small countries, subject to uneconomic defence production policies. It faces, since the end of the Cold War, a succession of new challenges such as budget restrictions, armament reductions and geopolitical upheavals. The EU is pushing in the direction of a cohesive foreign policy, including security and defence. Today, the emergence of a more consolidated European defence industry and the presence of oligopolistic European companies imply the definition of new roles for the EU and for its European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The solution is not protectionism, but more co‐operation to ensure effective defence production at a socially acceptable cost. In the framework of this co‐operation, defence companies in small and medium countries have a role to play as part of the supply chain to major weapon system integrators.     

BUTTER,GUNS AND ICE‐CREAM THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA

This paper is intended to complement the existing literature on civil wars. First, it presents a simple theoretical model of conflict that defines a two‐sector economy. In a contested sector, two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice‐cream’. Following the theoretical insights the empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between civil wars and different sectors of the economy. In particular, a panel probit specification shows that the incidence of a civil war decreases in the size of manufacturing sector.     

Country survey XII: South Africa

This article examines the relationship between defence expenditure and economic performance in South Africa, both prior to and after that country's first fully democratic election in 1994. Prior to 1994 defence expenditure decisions were largely dominated by non‐economic factors; since then defence spending has declined in reaction to, inter alia, the need to address a number of socio‐economic inequities.

After 1975 in particular, military industrialisation in South Africa placed a disproportionately high burden on the country's industrial resources and natural economic and technical capabilities. However, although this suggests that the opportunity cost of domestic arms production has been fairly high, the country's poor economic and development performance since the mid‐1970s is a function of underlying structural deficiencies and institutional constraints rather than the consequence of inordinately high defence spending levels.     

The causal nexus between military spending and unemployment in the G7: a bootstrap panel causality test

We revisit the causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in the G7 countries applying a bootstrap panel causality analysis that accounts for both cross-sectional dependence and for heterogeneity across countries. Using per capita real GDP as a controlled variable, we found a unidirectional causality running from military spending to unemployment for Canada, Japan, and the US, one-way causality running from unemployment to military spending for France and Germany, and bidirectional causality for Italy and the UK. The empirical evidence does not seem to provide consistent results regarding the causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in G7 countries.     

吊放声纳主动工作模式探测域建模与仿真

水声环境对于吊放声纳搜潜效果影响很大,以往的水声环境对吊声探测影响建模尚未涉及吊声立体探测域,不能为吊声搜潜战术研究提供有效支撑。在对声传播损失、海洋环境噪声和混响进行深入分析和建模的基础上,根据吊声探测机理建立了主动探测概率模型,仿真分析了吊声主动探测概率的三维空间分布,并提出了吊声搜潜战术应以三维非连续探测域为基础,结合战法实验等新手段进行不确定性研究的建议。     

近炸引信预制破片弹射击效能仿真

提出了利用动态精度试验数据,预测近炸引信预制破片弹射击效能的思路,建立了动态精度预测射击效能的数学模型,在较接近实战条件下模拟计算了近炸引信预制破片弹的射击效能.计算结果与实弹射击结果接近,表明该方法能有效预测近炸引信预制破片弹的射击效能,能为射击试验提供高可信度的验前信息,有助于优化射击试验方案的制定,减少试验样本量,降低试验消耗.