潜艇动力抗沉运动特性分析

采用潜艇垂直面操纵性运动方程、破损舱进水方程和压载水舱排水方程联立构成的潜艇动力抗沉运动方程,研究了2艘不同吨位潜艇的损管特性和动力抗沉运动,其中动力抗沉运动计算包括单独高压气吹除和高压气吹除加操上浮舵2种情况,并讨论了单独高压气吹除、高压气吹除与操舵联合作用的抗沉效能,从而明确了操舵在动力抗沉中的作用。通过对两艇的仿真计算结果的讨论与分析,并用动力不沉性指数Ka定量地评估了转舵在潜艇动力抗沉中的作用。计算结果表明,潜艇中、首部隔舱破损时,转舵在动力抗沉中效能显著,尾部隔舱破损时效能不明显,甚至作用相反。     

消防部队处置生物突发事件辅助决策系统构建

阐述了生物突发事件的重大危害性和建立生物突发事件辅助决策系统的主要目的和意义。从生物突发事件应急救援工作的实际需求出发，对辅助决策系统软件的设计进行了研究，应用Access数据库和VB6．0，编制出消防部队处置生物突发事件辅助决策系统，并对该软件的相关功能进行了必要的说明。     

‘Responsibility to protect’ and the African Union: Assessing the AU’s capacity to respond to regional complex humanitarian and political emergencies

Despite its many institutional and political weaknesses and limitations, the African Union (AU) has been developing a variety of tools and mechanisms to respond effectively to complex disasters and emergencies (both natural and manmade) by building up a comprehensive regional security architecture. Furthermore, it has become the first and only regional or international organisation to enshrine the principle of ‘responsibility to protect’ (R2P) in its Constitutive Act. This regional approach to and formal endorsement of the R2P principle allowed it to assume a particular place in the promotion of peace and security in its area. This article aims to critically assess the effectiveness of the AU on the African continent by exploring its real capacity in preventing and responding to emergencies and violent conflicts, and therefore in rendering the principle of R2P operational. The article argues that the formalisation of principles does not necessarily mean their effective implementation. The organisation's use of the R2P principle is also greatly conditioned by internal and external factors.     

一种调节阀式气体炮建模与分析

为研究气体炮各调整参数对其模拟性能的影响 ,笔者利用气体动力学相似理论的有关知识对双活塞调节阀式气体炮进行了数学建模与分析 ,采用四阶龙格—库塔法的思想进行计算 ,并利用MATLAB语言对其进行编程 ,通过在计算机上运行计算程序 ,得出模拟弹丸的加速度—时间模拟曲线。在对模拟曲线特征进行分析的基础上 ,指出了气体炮各调整参数对弹丸加速度—时间曲线的影响。     

大气层内复合控制拦截弹切换时间的探讨

大气层内拦截弹采用空气动力与燃气动力的复合控制方式是当今世界防空导弹的发展方向之一。复合控制技术的分析研究是当前急需解决的重要问题。在考虑目标机动加速度大小、目标机动时刻以及目标角闪烁的条件下 ,确定了拦截弹的控制方式由空气动力切换到复合控制时的切换时间。     

一类装甲车辆对不平路面的激励响应模型

研究内容为(轮式、履带)车辆在不平路面行驶和通过障碍时的平顺性问题。利用状态方程法建立了包括随机和确定路面轮廓、3维车体等较为通用的车辆行驶平顺性模型。并针对行驶振动中车轮与悬架的碰撞建立了专门模型。对某型装甲车辆进行了计算机仿真和验证,对模型的精度和有效性进行检验和评估。结果表明所建立的车辆-地面系统模型是有效的。该模型和建模采用的方法为装甲车辆的系统设计和动力学分析提供了一条途径。     

Designing and pricing menus of extended warranty contracts

Extended warranties provide “piece of mind” to a consumer in that product failures which occur after the base warranty expires are rectified at little or no cost. They also provide an additional source of revenue for manufacturers or third‐party providers, such as retailers or insurance providers, and help cultivate consumer loyalty. In this article, we analyze a number of extended warranty contracts which differ in design, including restrictions on deferrals and renewals. With the use of dynamic programming, we compute the optimal strategy for a consumer with perfect information and determine the optimal pricing policy for the provider given the consumer's risk characterization. We also provide insight into when different contracts should be issued. Finally, we illustrate how profits can be dramatically increased by offering menus of warranty contracts, as opposed to stand alone contracts, with the use of integer programming. Surprisingly, risk‐taking consumers provide the greatest benefit to offering menus. These insights can help a company develop a comprehensive warranty planning strategy for given products or product lines. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

消防部队火灾扑救和应急救援心理训练实践与探索

消防部队承担着复杂而危险的火灾扑救和应急救援任务，战斗中常会出现各种不良心理，心理素质是影响部队战斗力的重要因素。开展心理素质训练，提高消防官兵心理素质和心理适应能力是一个亟待解决的问题。阐述了消防部队火灾扑救和应急救援工作实际以及有关心理学知识，研究如何开展火灾扑救和应急救援心理训练，提高消防官兵的心理素质和心理适应能力。     

基于系统动力学的协同决策模型性能分析

为探索信息化作战中指挥控制关键因素，提出改进作战指挥体制的对策措施，采用系统动力学理论，对协同决策的结构、参与者和信息反馈关系等关键因素进行了分析，在此基础上构建了基于系统动力学的协同决策模型并进行了模拟仿真。结果表明，增加指挥控制机构之间的信息共享可以有效提升协同决策的效率，为建立协同决策指挥控制体制提供了借鉴意义。     

Dynamic institutionalization: the foundations of Japan’s radioactive problem

Many have suggested that the true purpose behind Japan’s development of a closed nuclear-fuel cycle is to maintain the technical potential to develop nuclear weapons. However, closer examination of the development of Japan’s nuclear industry shows that, although Japan possesses advanced nuclear technologies, there has been no deliberate strategy to create a nuclear-weapon option. There is no “nuclear hedge.” To illustrate this point, this article presents a framework called “dynamic institutionalization” to explain the origins of Japan’s nuclear policies and the different sets of institutionalized pressures and constraints that have perpetuated these policies over time. Japan’s continued development of closed fuel-cycle technologies is primarily driven by domestic politics and the lack of a permanent spent-fuel management solution. On the other hand, Japan’s institutionalized nuclear forbearance is driven by the calculation that, as long as US extended deterrence remains credible, Japan’s security is best guaranteed through reliance on the US nuclear umbrella. By analytically untangling the policy of closed fuel-cycle development from the rationale for nuclear forbearance, this article provides a more nuanced view of the relationships between the domestic and international variables shaping Japan’s nuclear policies.