REFLECTIONS ON THE INTEGRATION OF THE MILITARY IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper explores the contribution of the African Union (AU) to human security promotion in Africa. It contends that human security concerns informed the formation of the AU. Through the efforts of the AU Commission, the African ruling elite and policy-makers have become aware of human security doctrines. Human security ideas have been integrated into AU binding agreements, declarations, decisions and policies. The commission is now in the difficult, yet most important, phase of trying to persuade significant numbers of the African ruling elite and civil society to accept human security as a guiding principle and the desirable norm. Through the African Citizens' Directorate (CIDO), the commission is using indigenous African civil society groups to institutionalise human security doctrines in Africa. The commission faces serious challenges in its efforts to make human security the only security norm. While member states of the AU that have never been comfortable with the introduction of human security doctrines into the continental integration project are tacitly undermining the CIDO's ability to work with civil society groups to institutionalise the doctrines in Africa, the leaders who enthusiastically supported the integration of human security doctrines into the documents and work of the AU have seemed in recent times to be less resolute in their support of AU Commission's human security work.     

Warning whom,for which response?

In June 2000, the Conference of Heads of State and Government of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) adopted the Protocol on the establishment of the Peace and Security Council for Central Africa (COPAX), with its two technical structures, namely the Central African Multinational Force (FOMAC) and the Central African Early Warning Mechanism (MARAC). MARAC is tasked with collecting and analysing data for the early detection and prevention of conflicts and crises. It currently consists of the Central Structure located at the ECCAS Executive Secretariat in Libreville (Gabon) and 31 Decentralised Correspondents spread throughout the ten member states of ECCAS. This article assesses the performance of MARAC in the light of its assigned objectives. Bearing in mind the peace and security challenges facing the central African sub-region, the central argument of this article is that while the establishment of MARAC is commendable, it flowed more from the logic and context of the establishment of similar mechanisms on the African continent during the same period than from any displayed capacity and/or readiness on the part of ECCAS to implement the recommendations due to emanate from such a structure.     

基本作战样式下航母编队兵力配置方法

航母编队兵力配置是航母编队作战运用的基础内容,从作战任务的角度来研究航母编队兵力配置问题。航母编队基本作战样式可分为对空作战、对海作战、对潜作战和对岸作战4种,航母编队通过基本作战样式的组合来达成作战任务。基于每种作战样式下航母编队兵力执行的作战任务,确定了兵力配置的原则和方法。为研究航母编队兵力配置问题提供了一种可借鉴的思路。     

基于BP神经网络的防空预警雷达阵地选址决策方法

防空预警雷达阵地选址的优劣直接影响到雷达本身及防空武器作战效能的发挥。为了在雷达阵地选址中快速处理繁多的数据和进行定量分析,减少人为主观因素,给出了防空预警雷达阵地选址决策指标体系,并构建了基于BP神经网络的防空预警雷达阵地选址决策模型。最后通过实例验证了该模型对优选防空预警雷达阵地选址具有可行性和实用性。     

面向反导预警作战的雷达交接班时机选择方法

针对反导预警作战过程中远程预警相控阵雷达(early-warning radar,EWR)和多功能地基相控阵雷达(ground-based radar,GBR)探测跟踪弹道导弹的交接班问题,提出了一种可行的雷达交接班时机选择方法.该方法通过卡尔曼滤波对弹道目标进行滤波定轨,基于目标瞬时运动状态估算目标剩余飞行距离,并依据GBR对目标的探测定位精度(geometrical dilution of precision,GDOP)进行接班时机优选,以支持反导预警作战雷达交接班决策.最后,通过一个实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.     

军用飞机采购价格的RBF神经网络预测

分析了现代军用飞机采购价格估算中存在的问题.应用基于k-均值聚类算法的RBF神经网络建立了军用飞机采购价格预测模型,并采用该模型对某型军用飞机采购价格进行了预测.与多元线性回归和BP神经网络的预测结果对比,建立的新型军用飞机采购价格预测模型具有更高的预测精度,为军用飞机采购价格预测提供了一种新的有效方法.     

以数据为中心的天基预警系统视图模型研究

借鉴美国国防部体系结构框架思想(Department of Defense Architecture Framework,DoDAF),从核心体系结构实体、体系结构建模集和建模步骤几方面研究了以数据为中心的体系结建模方法,针对天基预警系统的特点和在反导中的应用,采用体系结构工具System Architect（SA）从系统层面建立了典型的天基预警系统的系统视图模型,对理解天基预警系统体系结构、开展天基预警系统顶层设计研究具有一定的参考价值。     

反辐射导弹告警技术效能分析

基于反辐射导弹告警技术的原理,分析了反辐射导弹雷达告警技术和光电告警技术的可行性。定义了告警设备的抗电子摧毁因子,并给出了分析过程和计算模型。以命中概率为指标,对反辐射导弹告警技术的作战效能进行了分析研究。仿真得出反辐射导弹命中概率与告警设备告警距离、发现概率等参数的关系,可为反辐射导弹告警技术的研究提供一定的参考。     

改进熵系数法的预警机探测引导能力评估

引入欧氏距离来度量基于离差最大化法与熵系数法确定的两个权重向量的相似度,在相似度最大约束条件下,确定了熵系数法中参数ρ值,解决了参数ρ取值人为主观性的问题。采用区间数来表示专家对指标间的相对重要性,克服了实际中难于得到准确决策信息的问题。将区间数特征向量法确定的主观权重和改进的熵系数法确定的客观权重集成得到组合权重,采用加权算术平均算子对4种预警机的探测引导能力进行了计算。     

高空长航时太阳能飞机研究进展与技术挑战

高空长航时太阳能飞机是当前的前沿热点方向,可实现月量级的长期驻空,并形成“时间持久+区域保持”的新型应用能力。系统总结了高空长航时太阳能飞机三阶段发展历程,包括初期探索阶段、快速发展阶段、实用能力验证与应用示范阶段,重点阐述国外典型发展计划,深入分析气动布局设计、储能电池、高空推进、大尺度结构、飞行控制等面临的主要技术挑战,并提出重点攻关方向建议,为高空长航时太阳能飞机创新发展提供参考。