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The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role. 相似文献
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针对船摇扰动引起的机械谐振和视轴不稳定的问题,舰载条件下通过安装多个陀螺来实现船摇扰动的复合补偿,在原有等效闭环系统中串入高通滤波器,消除谐振环节带来的影响。从仿真结果看,复合补偿控制具有良好船摇隔离效果,有利于高精度跟踪系统的实现。 相似文献
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情景分析法在军事情报领域和竞争情报领域中已得到广泛应用。结合群体性事件情报预警工作的现状,适当借鉴该方法的合理因素,结合具体操作,力求为群体性事件情报预警系统提供科学的方法和策略。 相似文献
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引入自挤压工艺辅助超重力下燃烧合成制备Al2O3-ZrO2(4Y)共晶复合陶瓷,可有效地消除陶瓷制品的缩孔、缩松组织等缺陷,陶瓷致密性得到明显提高,同时又有效地抑制陶瓷裂纹萌生。XRD分析显示共晶陶瓷由α-Al2O3,t-ZrO2及少量的m-ZrO2三相组成,且随自挤压力增大,陶瓷中可相变的t-ZrO2的体积分数增加。SEM观察发现陶瓷的显微组织中的棒状共晶团随自挤压力的增大而细化,体积分数增加,且分布其上的t-ZrO2纤维直径变小,共晶团组织边缘处的ZrO2枝晶逐渐转变为细小的球晶,共晶团边界组织厚度逐渐减小,从而使陶瓷力学性能得以提升。 相似文献
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This paper empirically analyses the effect of terror on internal migration between Israeli subdistricts. Using a unique data-set comprising migration flows for the period 1999–2012 and the number of rocket and non-rocket attacks, we test the hypotheses that terror reduces migration into an affected subdistrict and increases migration out of it. According to our results, the effect of terror on migration is asymmetric as we only find evidence for the first hypothesis. This result remains when we use an instrumental variables strategy that corrects for underreporting of the number of rocket attacks. The largest effects of rocket attacks are found for migration into the Southern subdistrict of Ashqelon as well as into other border regions in Northern Israel, while non-rocket attacks also have substantial effects in the more populous centres of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. 相似文献
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挤压铸造ZA27合金阻尼性能研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对比研究了ZA27合金挤压铸造和重力铸造时的阻尼性能,结果表明:挤压铸造试样内耗高于重力铸造,是重力铸造的1.2倍;挤压铸造试样传递函数低于重力铸造;在频率高于25 Hz时,ZA27合金的阻尼作用效果明显,且挤压铸造成型的机件振动衰减效果比重力铸造强. 相似文献
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水下航行器精确导航在海洋利用和开发过程中发挥了重要作用。关于抑制水下导航误差随时间累积的问题,进行了详细阐述和分析:简述了惯性器件的发展历程;详细对比了各导航系统的优劣性,着重介绍了国内外重力辅助导航研究现状,分析了针对目前水下航行器高精度导航的需求,以及全球海洋重力基准图空间分辨率不足的科学难题;提出了通过GNSS-R测高星座获得高空间分辨率和高精度全球海洋重力基准图的思路及技术路线,以期提高水下重力辅助导航精度。 相似文献