When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

基于三角模糊熵的装备维修合同商评价与选择

装备维修合同商保障能力评价是军民融合装备维修招投标过程中合理选择最优合同商的基础.通过对招投标过程及以往资料的研究,在考虑部队装备维修保障特殊性的基础上,从合同商资质、技术能力、管理水平和价格成本4个方面构建装备维修合同商评价指标体系,并运用基于三角模糊熵的综合评价法进行评价.综合运用三角模糊法和熵值法,针对评价指标的模糊性和不确定性,采用三角模糊数对定性指标量化处理,又用熵权反映出指标竞争的相对激烈程度,计算出评价对象与理想点的贴近度和距离,据此对评价对象进行优劣排序,最后通过实例进行了验证.     

3D laser scanning strategy based on cascaded deep neural network

A 3D laser scanning strategy based on cascaded deep neural network is proposed for the scanning system converted from 2D Lidar with a pitching motion device. The strategy is aimed at moving target detection and monitoring. Combining the device characteristics, the strategy first proposes a cascaded deep neural network, which inputs 2D point cloud, color image and pitching angle. The outputs are target distance and speed classification. And the cross-entropy loss function of network is modified by using focal loss and uniform distribution to improve the recognition accuracy. Then a pitching range and speed model are proposed to determine pitching motion parameters. Finally, the adaptive scanning is realized by integral separate speed PID. The experimental results show that the accuracies of the improved network target detection box, distance and speed classification are 90.17%, 96.87% and 96.97%, respectively. The average speed error of the improved PID is 0.4239°/s, and the average strategy execution time is 0.1521 s. The range and speed model can effectively reduce the collection of useless information and the deformation of the target point cloud. Conclusively, the experimental of overall scanning strategy show that it can improve target point cloud integrity and density while ensuring the capture of target.     

灰色关联投影法的威胁排序算法

威胁评估与排序是作战系统和C4I系统必须具备的重要功能.结合多指标决策理论和灰色系统理论,提出了基于多指标决策灰色关联投影法的威胁排序算法.首先通过建立灰色关联判断矩阵将威胁排序转化为多指标决策问题;其次为缩小极端值的影响提出了基于信息熵的威胁指标权重算法;最后从矢量投影角度应用灰色关联投影值进行威胁排序;并分别研究了分辨系数和指标权重对威胁排序的影响.通过现代防空作战实例验证了算法的有效性和工程实用性.     

改进熵系数法的预警机探测引导能力评估

引入欧氏距离来度量基于离差最大化法与熵系数法确定的两个权重向量的相似度,在相似度最大约束条件下,确定了熵系数法中参数ρ值,解决了参数ρ取值人为主观性的问题。采用区间数来表示专家对指标间的相对重要性,克服了实际中难于得到准确决策信息的问题。将区间数特征向量法确定的主观权重和改进的熵系数法确定的客观权重集成得到组合权重,采用加权算术平均算子对4种预警机的探测引导能力进行了计算。     

基于熵权多目标决策的战时物资运输方案优选研究

提出了战时物资运输方案优选问题,分析战时运输的影响因素,提出了评估战时物资运输方案的较有代表性的指标,并给出了具体计算方法.在没有指标权重的情况下,应用熵权多目标决策方法对多个合理方案进行优选评估,得出了可信度较高的优选方案.     

基于粗集和最大熵的模式识别方法

用基于属性约简的粗集理论找出条件属性的最小属性集。对属性间为不确定因果关系的模式,计算在最大熵情况下发生的概率,通过比较概率来进行模式识别,实例分析和结论部分说明这种方法是有效的。     

基于熵权-双基点法的战时野战维修装备编配方案优选研究

为解决战时野战维修装备编配多方案优选困难问题,实现编配方案的合理化选择;首先在分析优选编配方案的数据基础上,构建了多方案优选指标体系;然后利用熵权方法计算了优选指标的权重和标准化数据;最后利用双基点法构建了优选模型,并计算了各方案的优属度,确定了最优编配方案．     

粗糙集理论在装备保障训练效果评估中的应用

装备维修保障训练效果评估中最关键的步骤就是评估指标体系的构建及优化,为了克服传统评价方法中存在指标关联性大和权重确定主观性强的问题,将粗糙集和信息熵理论引入装备维修保障训练效果评估领域。采用信息熵的算法对连续指标离散化,基于粗糙集区分矩阵的方法对指标体系进行属性约简,降低了模型的复杂性;在此基础上提出了粗糙集属性重要度和AHP法相结合确定指标权重的方法,进而通过专家评议应用于训练效果评估实例,得到了较好的评估效果,为装备维修保障训练评估提供了新的参考方法。     

基于小波包分解和样本熵的电磁干扰分析方法

为了定量分析不同状态下电磁环境的变化,并有效提取电磁环境变化的干扰特征,提出了基于小波包分解和样本熵的电磁干扰分析方法.首先,时电磁环境的样本信号进行小波包分解,然后分别计算分解后备频带信号的能量谱系数和样本熵,通过能量谱系数和样本熵这两个指标的对比,综合判断电磁环境是否发生变化.仿真分析表明:样本熵可以弥补能量谱系数...