基于D-S证据理论的机载雷达模糊识别方法

针对机载雷达信号的复杂性和模糊性等特点,提出一种D-S(登普斯特-谢弗)证据理论和模糊理论组合应用的方法用于对机载雷达的识别。通过对信号的积累和对信任度(模糊隶属度)的重新分配,有效地解决了机载雷达信号的不确定性问题以及如何利用信号在时间上的冗余信息问题,提高了信号的正确识别率。仿真实验和正确识别率的统计结果验证了这种方法十分有效。     

基于黑板模型的空袭目标识别专家系统

在对空袭目标信息进行综合利用的基础上,建立了基于黑板模型的多传感器空袭目标识别融合专家系统模型,模拟专家识别思维.给出了知识库的构造方法和知识的表示方法;推理机的设计结合了问题求解的黑板模型和D-S证据推理方法.该模型对目标的综合应用识别具有很好的借鉴作用,测试表明该系统具有很强的推理能力,融合模型有较高的识别准确性和可靠性.     

地面防空火力单元基于D-S理论选择反导防御手段

在现代战争中,飞航导弹发挥了重要作用,取得了巨大的作战效能。地面防空火力单元面临着如何合理使用防御措施、正确选择干扰手段加强对飞航导弹防御的问题。提出一种把基于D-S理论的数据融合技术应用于地面防空火力单元选择干扰手段进行反导防御的方法。结果表明,利用D-S理论可以较好地选择对飞航导弹的干扰手段。     

利用时间谱信息融合的空中目标分类算法

时间谱信息(目标的航迹、速度、机动性、空间坐标信息)揭示了目标空间状态随时间的变化特性,从而可利用目标的时谱简化(或缩小)待识别目标的范围。将低分辨雷达测量得到的高度、速度、加速度作为目标特征,建立典型空中目标对各特征的模糊隶属函数,进而采用改进的证据推理进行分类判决。结果表明利用时间谱信息可为雷达空中目标识别提供有效辅助手段。     

接敌前基于D-S理论的空战意图预测

接敌前是指敌机刚进入我方预警系统的探测范围(一般为400 km),并截获敌机,获得了敌机的运动参数,对敌机进行实时跟踪。为了完成对敌机目标意图的预测,为接敌前的自主决策打下基础,在D-S证据理论的基础上,选取合适的态势元素,分析各态势元素对敌机意图的影响,建立了目标意图预测模型,该模型具有一定的表达性和准确性。仿真实验表明,使用该模型能在敌机相距较远时以一定的准确性判断敌机的意图,实用性强,为接敌前基于意图预测的自主决策留出足够的时间。     

基于模型诊断的集合逻辑运算法计算最小碰集

在基于模型的故障诊断仿真系统的诊断流程中,由最小冲突集计算最小碰集是整个流程中的关键步骤。针对现有计算最小碰集方法中存在的缺陷,提出了运用集合逻辑运算法计算最小碰集,将冲突集表示为集合的逻辑"与"、逻辑"或"运算,通过其运算法则进行运算简化,可得到全部的最小碰集。该方法具有简单有效、数据结构简单、计算简便快捷和易于程序实现等优点。最后通过实例计算,验证了该算法的正确性、简单性和高效性。     

Securitising humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction in Africa: A critical review of South Africa's new defence policy

The South African Defence Review 2014 is the country's new defence policy. The Review, which is expected to steer South African defence policymaking for the next few decades, discusses in detail the role of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) in peace missions in Africa and proposes the direct involvement of the country's soldiers in both military and civilian tasks, from peacekeeping to humanitarian assistance, post-conflict reconstruction and development. This paper contains a critical review of the Review with regard to South Africa's envisaged contribution to regional and continental peace and stability. It is argued that humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction should not be securitised and that the SANDF should only be tasked with peacekeeping and the establishment of stability and security in fragile in-conflict and post-conflict settings. The humanitarian work should be left to humanitarian and aid agencies, while reconstruction and development should be left to organisations such as the New Partnership for Africa's Development, continental and international development organisations, and local actors.     

Dynamics in pastoral resource management and conflict in the Borana rangelands of southern Ethiopia

Based on primary and secondary data, this paper provides a qualitative account of current changes in the pattern of natural resource management as a result of resource degradation and conflict in the Borana rangelands of southern Ethiopia. Population pressure, recurrent drought and the depleted carrying capacity of pastoral resources, as well as the encroachment of neighbouring ethnic groups, present the Borana community with a significant challenge. The diminishing resilience of traditional politico-judicial institutions under the famous Gada system often result in the rise of new forms of land use such as farming and private enclosures, which compete with the traditional communal tenure system. The gradual collapse of traditional norms and value systems and the apparent inefficiency in the formal administrative structures have exacerbated the problems of resource degradation and conflict between multiple resource-users.     

一种新的基本概率函数构建方法及应用

针对Dempster-Shafer(D-S)证据推理中基本概率赋值函数的构造问题,基于模糊聚类分析给出了一种新的构建方法.将它应用到雷达目标识别的仿真实验中,并与灰关联法相比较,结果表明该方法切实可行,不仅提高了基本概率赋值的准确性和稳定性,而且利用了数据的结构信息,有效缓解了证据的冲突.     

Building peace from the margins in Somalia: The case for political settlement with Al-Shabaab

The prevailing discourse in Mogadishu among the federal government of Somalia and the international community is that Al-Shabaab is no longer relevant in contemporary Somali political landscape. In the language of the government, Al-Shabaab is like a lost crocodile thrown out from the river. In the lexicon of the international community, Al-Shabaab is gradually receding. In fact, Al-Shabaab is actually puissant and potent in terms of social, political and military capabilities; not just in Somalia, but also in the wider East Africa region. Why is Al-Shabaab resilient and resistant? Why is it even more effective than the federal government? To answer these questions, this article reveals how Al-Shabaab is increasingly more legitimate than the federal government. In conclusion, the article proposes that negotiated settlement with the insurgency movement could lead to peace in war-torn southern Somalia.