一种改进的证据理论合成规则

随着证据理论在信息融合领域中的广泛应用,对冲突证据的处理成为证据理论和应用研究热点。提出了一种基于证据重要度和聚焦度的新的合成规则,首先根据各个证据的重要度对冲突证据进行修正,再对冲突进行细化并考虑证据焦元的基数对D-S合成法则的影响,将冲突信息提取后加入组合规则中。通过实验比较和分析,结果说明该方法不仅能够处理一般性冲突问题,也能处理"一票否决"和"鲁棒性"问题。     

Conflict management in the Central African Republic: making genocide prevention work

This commentary analyses the international response to the crisis that struck the Central African Republic (CAR) in early December 2013. It examines three intertwined dimensions defining the courses of action available to policymakers dealing with pre-genocidal crises: the politics and institutional manoeuvring shaping the United Nations (UN) Security Council's decision to authorise an enforcement mission without deploying ‘blue helmets’ on the ground; the operational complexities involved in launching rapid reaction forces; and the interdependent logics between peacebuilding and atrocity prevention. The author argues that there are three ways for the UN Secretariat to ensure a more effective response to CAR-type situations: generating political will to respond swiftly to deteriorating crises leading to widespread abuses of human rights by advancing the concept of Responsibility to Protect as a core component of states' national interests; developing strategic frameworks for the deployment of multi-plural missions equipped to avert the actual or potential threat of atrocities; and developing joint early warning and scenario planning between peacebuilding and atrocity prevention agencies.     

2015 and the survival of the Nigerian State

Nigeria is currently faced with serious domestic challenges. While the state is not officially at war, it is standing on the precipice, especially with the eruption of violence occasioned by the emergence of the Boko Haram sect and the tenuous peace in the Niger Delta. With the 2015 general elections on the horizon, fears of further violence and disintegration are rife, more so because of the debate over who occupies the Presidential Villa at Abuja. President Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, seems poised for a comeback even amidst the vociferous challenge posed by the political elites of northern Nigeria. This article looks at the different scenarios that might play out in 2015. It analyses the challenges of the survival of the Nigerian state, and makes some policy recommendations that Nigeria and its people need to put into place in order to ensure its survival beyond 2015.     

Understanding the ‘failure’ of the Séléka rebellion

This paper examines the downfall of the Séléka rebellion, which staged a coup in the Central African Republic in March 2013. The coup plunged the country into violence and chaos, and there has been an uneasy quest for peace ever since. This article explains why the leader of the rebellion lost control over his troops and was finally pushed by regional actors to leave power. The article concludes that the Séléka rebellion was already fragile and, together with the poor leadership demonstrated by the coalition leader, the rebellion was unable to hold on to power.     

Counterinsurgency or irregular warfare? Historiography and the study of ‘small wars’

This article argues that the history of irregular warfare provides a valuable analytical and critical perspective for the study of counterinsurgency campaigns and counterinsurgency doctrine. A focus on the history of irregular warfare highlights the close relationship between warfare in Europe and in the colonies. Moreover, it enables us to identify more exactly the intersection of multiple factors that lead to an escalation of violence in small wars. Finally, it also sheds light on the lack of strategic reflection on the use of irregular auxiliaries that is characteristic for many counterinsurgency campaigns.     

现代反恐怖作战反游击战理论初探

世纪之交 ,美俄等军队进行的几场反恐怖战争 ,其对手在处于劣势时 ,通常以游击战术与之对抗。因此 ,美俄军队在反恐怖作战中 ,也运用反游击战手段反制恐怖武装 ,其高技术条件下的反游击战战略战术对取得战争胜利起到了至关重要的作用。     

火灾微量物证的发现与提取方法研究

针对基层火灾调查人员在发现与提取火灾微量物证中存在的实际问题,从火灾微量物证的概念、特点和种类出发,归纳总结了火灾现场不同火灾微量物证的发现、提取与包装方法,给出了发现与提取火灾微量物证的基本要求和应注意的问题。     

Weakest‐link attacker‐defender games with multiple attack technologies

In this article, we examine a model of terrorism that focuses on the tradeoffs facing a terrorist organization that has two qualitatively different attack modes at its disposal. The terrorist organization's objective is to successfully attack at least one target. Success for the target government is defined as defending all targets from any and all attacks. In this context, we examine how terrorist entities strategically utilize an efficient but discrete attack technology — e.g., suicide attacks — when a more conventional mode of attack is available, and the optimal anti‐terrorism measures.© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

基于证据理论的战时军械维修器材供应链性能评价

在一般供应链性能评价指标体系的基础上,结合现代战争中军械维修器材供应链的特点,从资源、输出和柔性三个角度构建了战时军械维修器材供应链性能评价的指标体系.考虑到战争环境下信息的模糊性和不确定性,建立了战时军械维修器材供应链性能评价的证据理论模型.以某战时军械维修器材供应链为例,基于构建的战时军械维修器材供应链性能评价指标体系和模型进行案例研究.结果表明,基于证据理论构建的战时军械维修器材供应链性能评价模型是可行的,有效的.     

基于竞赛图的海上编队协同作战冲突排序方法

海上编队协同作战中的冲突消解顺序问题能影响编队作战效能。为了确定冲突消解的顺序问题,采用基于综合集成权重的竞赛图方法来表示多种冲突的有序关系,定量化给出了各冲突严重程度的排序结论,不仅为指挥员的决策提供了依据,而且提出了一种有序替代具体数值的定量化分析方法。结果证明,该方法简单、有效。