A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation

Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 489–500, 2014     

多层次信息融合技术在燃气轮机故障诊断中的应用

探讨了信息融合技术在燃气轮机故障诊断中的应用,构建出一种燃气轮机多层次信息融合故障诊断模型.在模型的数据融合层,采用了自适应加权融合算法,以最小化传感器测量不确定度为目标对同源测量数据进行了融合,其结果再经特征层进行故障特征的提取和融合,最终通过决策层给出诊断判定.数值实验结果证明,该故障模型能有效减小传感器测量不确定度对于诊断的不良影响,所得诊断结果的合理性和精度均得到了提高.     

Designing acceptance sampling schemes for life testing with mixed censoring

Mixed censoring is useful extension of Type I and Type II censoring and combines some advantages of both types of censoring. This paper proposes a general Bayesian framework for designing a variable acceptance sampling scheme with mixed censoring. A general loss function which includes the sampling cost, the time‐consuming cost, the salvage value, and the decision loss is employed to determine the Bayes risk and the corresponding optimal sampling plan. An explicit expression of the Bayes risk is derived. The new model can easily be adapted to create life testing models for different distributions. Specifically, two commonly used distributions including the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution are considered with a special decision loss function. We demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to models with Type I or Type II censoring. Numerical examples are reported to illustrate the effectiveness of the method proposed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

离散型随机BAM神经网络时滞分布依赖全局指数稳定性

研究一类具有随机时滞与随机干扰的离散型BAM神经网络的全局指数稳定性,所建模型同时考虑离散时滞变化区间与分布概率对稳定性的影响．通过构造新的Lyapunov泛函并结合线性矩阵不等式（LMI）方法,得到了均方意义下依赖于时滞分布的全局指数稳定性条件．     

基于神经网络的舰船目标识别研究

为了实现对水下目标的识别,在现有特征提取方法的基础上,提出了一种从DEMON谱线谱和DEMON谱连续谱提取的特征方法,并设计了一个基于BP神经网络和多神经网络分类识别器的舰船目标识别系统。通过对实际舰船噪声目标进行识别,识别效果比较满意。这对舰船目标识别的发展具有一定的参考价值。     

装甲车辆使用与保障费用的指数回归模型

运用逐步回归和主成分分析的方法,选取了装甲车辆诸多战技性能指标集合中的自变量子集,建立了该子集与使用与保障费用之间指数回归方程组.该模型也可推广应用于装甲车辆综合性能的评估.     

GM(1，1)模型与指数回归模型的比较与研究

GM(1,1)模型与指数回归模型都是对具有指数或近似指数规律的系列数据建立的数学模型。通过对两种模型进行比较与研究,发现一方面,利用数据列的灰指数特性建立指数回归模型,可以简单地实现数据列的预测过程;另一方面,利用指数回归模型可以对灰色理论的GM(1,1)模型进行控制和优化。     

The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect

An important phenomenon often observed in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, implies that demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, i.e., as one moves away from customer demand. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two‐stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. We demonstrate that the use of an exponential smoothing forecast by the retailer can cause the bullwhip effect and contrast these results with the increase in variability due to the use of a moving average forecast. We consider two types of demand processes, a correlated demand process and a demand process with a linear trend. We then discuss several important managerial insights that can be drawn from this research. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 269–286, 2000     

基于指数平滑法的装备维修器材需求量预测

准确地预测维修器材需求量是制定装备保障计划的重要依据.针对装备维修器材需求量预测相对不够准确的问题,通过对两种预测方法进行比较,引入了适用于准确预测的指数平滑方法,建立了基于指数平滑法的装备维修器材需求量预测模型,介绍了确定初始值的方法,并以某种维修器材需求量预测为例进行了分析,为准确预测装备维修器材需求量提供了一种较为科学合理的方法.     

混合指数分布模型的Bayes分析

针对截尾试验数据的情况,给出了二元混合指数分布模型的平均寿命和可靠性函数的严格的Ｂａｙｅｓ点估计,并运用最大熵准则给出了可靠性函数的近似的Ｂａｙｅｓ置信下限估计。