Gas,power, and norms: competing logics for the declining use of chemical warfare

ABSTRACT

What restrains states from employing chemical weapons during modern war? Despite widespread and consistent efforts by the international community to outlaw chemical weapons in the twentieth century, major deviations from this goal occur. Two of the strongest explanations that exist for this trend are the logics of deterrence and norms that consider the use of chemical weapons to be a taboo. We test these theories using factor analysis and find that norms provide a better explanation of non-use in the twentieth century among states with a chemical-weapon capability. We then conclude with avenues for future research in this burgeoning field of study, which includes closer qualitative examination of norms, as well as the expansion of the dataset to include intrastate warfare and non-state warfare.     

一种新的基于二阶统计量的信道盲辨识与均衡算法

通过对接收信号进行过采样,应用过采样接收信号产生的循环平稳特性,给出单输入单输出系统的等效单输入多输出系统模型,据此模型给出了一种新的基于二阶统计量的盲辨识与均衡算法,给出的算法只需要接收信号的二阶统计量即可以辨识与均衡信道。     

射击精度小样本检验理论和方法应用研究初探

给出了多维正态分布与x2分布的概率性质,讨论了在小样本检验中如何检验同方差的二维正态分布的方差问题.给出了检验中所涉及到的拒真和纳伪概率的重要物理参数和OC曲线.该结论在武器装备小样本检验中具有重要的意义.     

初相未知信号联合检测与估计的序贯实现

在未知参数的充分统计量和再生概率密度函数的基础上,引入了联合检测与估计的序贯算法,给出了算法的实现框图,并将该算法应用于高斯噪声中初相位未知信号的联合检测与估计当中.仿真实验表明,新算法较传统算法有一定的性能改善.     

武警学院学术论文统计系统开发及功能实现

针对目前手工学术论文统计工作量大、效率不高的问题,开发计算机学术论文统计系统。通过该系统,可方便实现论文录入、论文统计、论文学术分值自动打分、统计结果保存等主要功能。该系统利用pb8.0开发建立,后台数据库选用的是pb自带的数据库管理系统AdaptiveServerAnywhere7.0(ASA7.0)。     

神经网络集成方法在火灾分析中的应用

采用神经网络集成方法对我国31个地区的经济总量、消防基本投入、火灾损失之间的关系进行定量分析,研究发现神经网络集成方法能有效地反应各地区经济发展水平、消防基本投入与火灾损失之间的内在联系。     

Estimating reliability of components with increasing failure rate using series system data

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a distribution function with increasing failure rate is derived, based on a collection of series system data. Applications can arise in industries where operating environments make available only such system-level data, due to system configuration or type-II censoring. The estimator can be solved using isotonic regression. For the special case in which systems contain one component, the estimator is equivalent to the restricted maximum likelihood estimator of Marshall and Proschan [9]. The MLE is illustrated using emergency diesel generator failure data from the nuclear industry. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 115–123, 1998     

Technical note – operational statistics: Properties and the risk‐averse case

Consider a repeated newsvendor problem for managing the inventory of perishable products. When the parameter of the demand distribution is unknown, it has been shown that the traditional separated estimation and optimization (SEO) approach could lead to suboptimality. To address this issue, an integrated approach called operational statistics (OS) was developed by Chu et al., Oper Res Lett 36 (2008) 110–116. In this note, we first study the properties of this approach and compare its performance with that of the traditional SEO approach. It is shown that OS is consistent and superior to SEO. The benefit of using OS is larger when the demand variability is higher. We then generalize OS to the risk‐averse case under the conditional value‐at‐risk (CVaR) criterion. To model risk from both demand sampling and future demand uncertainty, we introduce a new criterion, called the total CVaR, and find the optimal OS under this new criterion. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 206–214, 2015     

对单兵火箭提前修正量的分析研究

为了实现某型单兵火箭的射击在陆军分队作战模拟仿真系统中的仿真模拟,运用数理统计理论对单兵火箭提前修正量进行分析研究,论证了单兵火箭的射程与提前修正量的一元线性回归分析的统计规律,给出了一元线性回归方程和提前修正量的置信区间,论证了在置信区间中的实际提前修正量的射击的弹着点符合正态分布的射击规律和散布律公式。根据得到的理论结果,指导模拟仿真系统对单兵火箭的射击进行仿真模拟。     

On the application and extension of system signatures in engineering reliability

Following a review of the basic ideas in structural reliability, including signature‐based representation and preservation theorems for systems whose components have independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) lifetimes, extensions that apply to the comparison of coherent systems of different sizes, and stochastic mixtures of them, are obtained. It is then shown that these results may be extended to vectors of exchangeable random lifetimes. In particular, for arbitrary systems of sizes m < n with exchangeable component lifetimes, it is shown that the distribution of an m‐component system's lifetime can be written as a mixture of the distributions of k‐out‐of‐n systems. When the system has n components, the vector of coefficients in this mixture representation is precisely the signature of the system defined in Samaniego, IEEE Trans Reliabil R–34 (1985) 69–72. These mixture representations are then used to obtain new stochastic ordering properties for coherent or mixed systems of different sizes. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008