When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

气缸张开式尾翼弹气缸压力数值仿真研究

为研究气缸张开式尾翼工作原理,分析某型滑膛反坦克炮榴弹气缸充放气过程,建立尾翼弹在炮膛内的气缸压力模型,将其与炮弹底部气体压力、密度、温度等参量的变化规律相耦合,并对气缸压力模型进行可解性分析,得到一种求解气缸气体压力、密度等参数随时间变化的数值方法．     

内腐蚀缺陷尺寸对DN150承插管线承压能力的影响

为了科学地指导DN150承插管线的使用与管理,采用非线性有限元法对带内腐蚀缺陷的DN150承插管线进行了剩余强度的评估。通过分析和计算,研究了腐蚀缺陷宽度、长度和深度对管线极限承载能力的影响。结果表明：腐蚀缺陷宽度对DN150承插管线的承载能力影响很小,可忽略不计;随着腐蚀缺陷长度的增加,管线的承载能力略微减小,当缺陷长度达到150mm,管道失效压力基本不变;随着腐蚀缺陷深度的增加,管道失效压力呈线性递减,其对管道失效压力的影响程度远远大于腐蚀缺陷长度。     

甲B类液体全压力储罐消防设计问题研究

对沸点低于45℃的甲B类液体全压力储罐消防设计、审查过程中存在的问题进行了较为全面的分析,并针对这些问题提出了解决的方法,为进一步完善相关工程设计规范和有效地执行这些规范提供了实例,以期给同类工程提供有益借鉴.     

The properties of Sn–Zn–Al–La fusible alloy for mitigation devices of solid propellant rocket motors

The Al and La elements are added to the Sn9Zn alloy to obtain the fusible alloy for the mitigation devices of solid propellant rocket motors. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), metallographic analysis, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), tensile testing and fracture analysis were used to study the effect of Al and La elements on the microstructure, melting characteristics, and mechanical properties of the Sn9Zn alloy. Whether the fusible diaphragm can effectively relieve pressure was investigated by the hydrostatic pressure at high-temperature test. Experimental results show that the melting point of the Sn9Zn-0.8Al0·2La and Sn9Zn–3Al0·2La fusible alloys can meet the predetermined working temperature of ventilation. The mechanical properties of those are more than 35% higher than that of the Sn9Zn alloy at −50 °C–70 °C, and the mechanical strength is reduced by 80% at 175 °C. It is proven by the hydrostatic pressure at high-temperature test that the fusible diaphragm can relieve pressure effectively and can be used for the design of the mitigation devices of solid propellant rocket motors.     

Numerical investigation of the failure mechanism of cubic concrete specimens in SHPB tests

Cylindrical specimens are commonly used in Split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) tests to study the uniaxial dynamic properties of concrete-like materials.In recent years,true tri-axial SHPB equipment has also been developed or is under development to investigate the material dynamic properties under tri-axial impact loads.For such tests,cubic specimens are needed.It is well understood that static material strength obtained from cylinder and cube specimens are different.Conversion factors are obtained and adopted in some guidelines to convert the material strength obtained from the two types of specimens.Previous uniaxial impact tests have also demonstrated that the failure mode and the strain rate effect of cubic specimens are very different from that of cylindrical ones.However,the mechanical background of these findings is unclear.As an extension of the previous laboratory study,this study performs numerical SHPB tests of cubic and cylindrical concrete specimens subjected to uniaxial impact load with the validated numerical model.The stress states of cubic specimens in relation to its failure mode under different strain rates is analyzed and compared with cylindrical specimens.The detailed analyses of the numerical simulation results show that the lateral inertial confinement of the cylindrical specimen is higher than that of the cubic specimen under the same strain rates.For cubic specimen,the corners are more severely damaged because of the lower lateral confinement and the occurrence of the tensile radial stress which is not observed in cylindrical specimens.These results explain why the dynamic material strengths obtained from the two types of specimens are different and are strain rate dependent.Based on the simulation results,an empirical formula of conversion factor as a function of strain rate is proposed,which supplements the traditional conversion factor for quasi-static material strength.It can be used for transforming the dynamic compressive strength from cylinders to cubes obtained from impact tests at different strain rates.     

Experimental study on the cavity evolution and liquid spurt of hydrodynamic ram

In research of the characteristics of the cavity evolution, the pressure, and the liquid spurt in hydrodynamic ram, the experiment of the high-velocity fragment impacting the water-filled container had been conducted. The relationships between the above three characteristics have been researched. The evolution of the cavity can be divided into three processes according to its shape characteristics. The first liquid spurt occurred in Process Ⅱ and the rest of it occurred in Process Ⅲ. The duration of the second liquid spurt is longer than the first liquid spurt. When the impact velocity of the fragment is less than 996 m/s, the velocity of the second liquid spurt is the highest. When the velocity of the fragment is greater than 996 m/s, the velocity of the first liquid spurt is the highest. The maximum velocities of the first and second liquid spurt are 111 m/s and 94 m/s respectively. The pressure fluctuated sharply in Processes Ⅰ and Ⅲ. The maximum peak pressures in the shock and the cavity oscillation phases are 15.51 MPa and 7.96 MPa respectively. The time interval of the two adjacent pressure pulses increases with the increase of the fragment velocity.     

钢框架梁柱焊接连接抗震性能试验研究

以梁端腹板的扇形孔形状为主要参数,进行了4个足尺钢框架梁柱焊接节点往复加载下的破坏试验。通过对弯矩—塑性转角和弯矩—累积塑性变形倍率试验曲线对比分析表明,扇形孔是节点变形能力和破坏形式的主要影响因素。改进扇形孔构造是一种有效措施,既可提高节点的抗震性能,又能保持制作工艺与传统节点基本相同。     

Some probability functions in reliability and their applications

There has been much research on the general failure model recently. In the general failure model, when the unit fails at its age t, Type I failure (minor failure) occurs with probability 1 ? p(t) and Type II failure (catastrophic failure) occurs with probability p(t). In the previous research, some specific shapes (constant, non‐decreasing, or bathtub‐shape) on the probability function p(t) are assumed. In this article, general results on some probability functions are obtained and applied to study the shapes of p(t). The results are also applied to determining the optimal inspection and allocation policies in maintenance problems. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

高亚声速时叶尖小翼对压气机叶栅泄漏流动的影响

为了探索跨声速来流条件时,不同安装位置、不同宽度的叶尖小翼对压气机叶栅气动特性的影响,对Ma=0.8时包括原型叶栅在内的7种扩压叶栅的流场进行了数值研究.结果表明:在多种因素的共同影响下,不同来流冲角的吸力面叶尖小翼在流场中都为负效果,增加了流场复杂性;压力面叶尖小翼则改善了泄漏流动,减小了流动损失.两种安装位置的叶尖...