基于自适应二阶终端滑模的航天器有限时间姿态机动算法

针对航天器有限时间姿态机动问题,提出一种自适应二阶终端滑模控制算法。设计一种终端滑模面,保证系统状态能够在有限时间内沿滑模面收敛到系统原点;为克服系统抖振,设计了二阶终端滑模控制器,并采用参数自适应估计项补偿系统中的外部干扰力矩。基于Lyapunov函数法证明了二阶自适应终端滑模控制器能够保证闭环系统实际有限时间稳定。仿真结果表明,提出的姿态机动算法响应速度快、精度高,能够有效实现对系统抖振和外部干扰的抑制,具有重要的科学意义和工程应用价值。     

Empirical Investigation into the Determinants of Terrorism: Evidence from Fragile States

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of terrorism in countries that are in the top category of the Fragile States Index (FSI), and are also prone to terrorism. Panel data for 38 countries mainly from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia for the years 2005–2014 are used. Findings from the negative binomial and fixed effects estimation show that fragile state, number of refugees and youth unemployment have positive and significant impacts on terrorism. Military spending is positive but less robust across models. Conversely, FDI and remittances have a negative impact on terrorism with the former less robust. Governance and foreign aid are negative and insignificantly related to terrorism. Policy implications follow from the findings.     

EDITOR'S NOTE

The Nonproliferation Review (NPR) recently interviewed Ambassador Sergio de Queiroz Duarte of Brazil, who presided over the 2005 Seventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Ambassador Duarte discussed his views on the outcome of the conference and the future of the treaty. He provided NPR with valuable insights into the outcome of the conference and also shared his thoughts on some of the most pressing issues confronting the NPT today, including the Middle East, nuclear terrorism, elimination of the threat of highly enriched uranium in the civilian nuclear sector, proposals to limit access to the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear disarmament, and negative security assurances. Blaming the failed conference on a general lack of political commitment among states parties and their unwillingness to negotiate common solutions, Ambassador Duarte stressed that “the conference should face squarely its own failure without my attempting to disguise or sugarcoat the deep differences of view, which must be resolved with courage and determination by the states parties if they want the treaty to remain effective.”?He emphasized that if states fail to act on their overriding interest in upholding the NPT, especially if states parties continue to ignore or disregard their nonproliferation and nuclear disarmament obligations, some states might come to believe that their security interests are no longer served by the treaty. The future prospects of the NPT would then “look dire indeed.”     

MONGOLIA

Formed according to broad principles laid out by the United Nations, nuclear-weapon-free zones (NWFZs) play an important role in promoting nuclear nonproliferation, paralleling and complementing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. But the traditional regional treaty-based path to establishing NWFZs is not open to all states. Owing to various factors, some countries cannot realistically follow the path of states that have established traditional NWFZs. Mongolia, having declared itself a single-state NWFZ in 1992 and gained UN General Assembly recognition of this status in 1998, may provide an example for other countries to follow. This viewpoint presents Mongolia's case as a state seeking to acquire a nontraditional nuclear-weapon-free status despite unfavorable geopolitical circumstances. The case of Mongolia clearly demonstrates that the creation of a credible, single-state NWFZ status is possible, but demands the support and flexibility of both neighboring states and the nuclear weapon states.     

高性能互连网络中端口阻塞故障预测方法

随着系统规模、芯片功耗和链路速率的提升,高性能互连网络的整体故障率也不断上升,传统运维方式将难以为继,给高性能计算系统整体可靠性和可用性带来了巨大挑战。针对网络端口阻塞这类严重网络故障,提出无监督算法的预测模型。该模型从历史信息中挖掘征兆性规律并形成新的特征向量,应用K-means聚类算法对特征向量进行学习归类。在预测时,结合端口当前状态,利用二次指数平滑算法对未来状态进行预测,将得到的新特征向量使用K-means算法预判是否会发生阻塞故障。利用拓扑结构信息,分别对叶交换机和根交换机构建预测子模型,进而提升预测的精确率。结果表明,该预测模型能保持在召回率为88.2%的前提下,达到65.2%的准确率,可为运维人员提供有效的辅助。     

用于有限体积法的中心WENO混合格式

通过理论推导得到6阶中心格式与5阶WENO格式相结合的混合格式(CWENO6格式),为了提高有限体积法中高精度格式的计算效率,引入3阶MUSCL反卷积方法以取代传统有限体积法中的反卷积方法。通过不同的算例比较了CWENO6格式与WENO5格式的数值表现。结果表明,相比于传统的WENO5格式,在网格量相同的前提下,由于数值耗散较小,CWENO6格式对流动细节的描述更为准确,为有限体积法模拟三维多尺度复杂提供了一种更为有效的方法。     

弹道导弹关机点状态估计的指数加权递归最小二乘方法

在双星预警条件下,将指数加权递归最小二乘算法应用于目标关机点状态估计问题中。通过引入加权因子对目标助推段运动的局部拟线性特性进行描述,从而在一定程度上克服了一般的线性多项式模型难以准确刻画整个助推段运动的难题。通过对助推段目标动力学特性的分析,考察了目标在垂直射面方向上的运动特性。在此基础上,提出了一种更为准确的助推段运动模型。仿真算例表明,所提出的关机点状态估计方法相对于传统的方法具有一定的优越性。     

高精度有限体积法与间断有限元法的比较研究

本文通过数值算例,比较了高精度有限体积法以及间断有限元法在求解不同问题时表现。研究发现：在精度相同的条件下,间断有限元法的计算误差要明显小于有限体积法;间断有限元法的重构过程与高精度有限体积法相比较为简单,但高阶情形下解多项式的自由度较多并且需要计算体积分,因此整个求解时间较长;在同样精度条件下,高精度有限体积法的计算效率要明显高于间断有限元法。降低时间积分时解多项式的自由度数目是实现高精度算法在实际问题中应用的重要手段。     

局部状态检测的GPS/INS组合导航转发式干扰检验方法

针对GPS/INS(Global Positioning System/Inertial Navigation System)组合导航中GPS转发式干扰问题,在分析故障变化特性与故障诊断函数特性之间关系的基础上,提出了一种基于局部状态χ2检验的方法。通过观测值的变化、观测模型的变化和χ2检验中x赞1k的变化论证了方法的可行性,并得出组合导航受到转发式干扰是判断系统发生故障的充分而非必要条件的结论。最后通过在仿真轨迹中加入诱偏来模拟转发式干扰,仿真实验证明该方法能够以较高的灵敏度和较高的准确性判断转发式干扰的发生。     

某新型大口径机枪浮动技术研究

为研究大口径机枪的浮动技术,在深入分析的基础上针对某新型大口径机枪,设计方便可行且结构合理的弹簧式浮动机构.通过设置独特的复进打断装置,实现了浮动过程中稳定的前冲击发.建立机枪枪身的虚拟样机模型,通过与试验结果进行对比,验证了其可信性.利用所建立的虚拟样机模型对浮动与不浮动状态下的浮动自动机进行运动分析,并对2种状态下的后坐力进行对比.结果表明,该机枪浮动自动机能实现稳定的浮动,并且减后坐力效果明显.