基于熵权多目标决策的雷达网战损装备抢修排序方法

分析了熵权的理论基础，给出了一种基于熵权多目标决策的雷达网战损装备抢修排序方法。其中，采用熵权与决策者的主观权重相结合的方法确定综合权重，使权重的确定更加合理。最后通过实例对该方法的可行性和实用性进行了说明。     

基于SD方法的作战指挥决策系统效能分析模型

指挥决策系统是一个非线性的复杂系统,用一般的解析方法难以对其进行效能评估。在分析指挥决策系统构成的基础上,根据指挥决策的4个要素,建立了指挥决策系统的评估指标体系;综合考虑战术和技术指标,从指挥员影响度,指挥机关影响度,指挥信息系统影响度和决策信息影响度4个方面建立了指挥决策系统效能分析模型,前两项指标可以采用层次分析法等方法确定其效能值,后两项指标利用系统动力学方法,结合实际作战的具体战术指标建模,实现了效能值的动态评估分析。     

混合多属性决策投影算法的装甲分队目标价值评估

科学评价混合多属性目标价值是装甲分队作战决策的基础,为提高信息化装甲分队作战辅助决策水平,建立了混合多属性评估矩阵并运用投影算法完成目标价值评估与排序。实例分析表明,基于混合多属性决策投影算法可合理有效地评估多目标价值,为分队指挥员科学决策提供重要数据支持。     

基于可视化交互的国动指挥所设计

国防动员的指挥控制中大量的信息数据(如部队需求、地方资源)和错综复杂的多方关系,使得指挥员难以在短时间内从浩如烟海的信息中提取有用的决策信息和作出快速准确地指挥协调。为此,着眼未来指挥所的发展趋势,提出基于可视化交互的国动指挥所设计方法:通过分析国动指挥任务的关键路径,提取重要的决策信息,利用可视化交互技术,实现对国动任务的信息化指挥控制。以某部演习的国防动员指挥为例,验证了方法的可行性和有效性。     

准则权重信息不完全的证据推理多属性决策算法

针对准则权重信息不完全情况下的多属性决策问题,提出了一种新的证据推理多属性决策算法,它通过建立基于证据信息熵的决策模型来求解准则的最优权重系数,利用求解得到的权重系数和递归ER算法求出各方案的效用值,进而得到各方案的优劣次序。最后,通过算例分析验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。     

Balancing stability and efficiency in team formation as a generalized roommate problem

The assignment of personnel to teams is a fundamental managerial function typically involving several objectives and a variety of idiosyncratic practical constraints. Despite the prevalence of this task in practice, the process is seldom approached as an optimization problem over the reported preferences of all agents. This is due in part to the underlying computational complexity that occurs when intra-team interpersonal interactions are taken into consideration, and also due to game-theoretic considerations, when those taking part in the process are self-interested agents. Variants of this fundamental decision problem arise in a number of settings, including, for example, human resources and project management, military platooning, ride sharing, data clustering, and in assigning students to group projects. In this article, we study an analytical approach to “team formation” focused on the interplay between two of the most common objectives considered in the related literature: economic efficiency (i.e., the maximization of social welfare) and game-theoretic stability (e.g., finding a core solution when one exists). With a weighted objective across these two goals, the problem is modeled as a bi-level binary optimization problem, and transformed into a single-level, exponentially sized binary integer program. We then devise a branch-cut-and-price algorithm and demonstrate its efficacy through an extensive set of simulations, with favorable comparisons to other algorithms from the literature.     

针对无人机集群对抗的规则与智能耦合约束训练方法

基于无人机集群智能攻防对抗构想,建立了无人机集群智能攻防对抗仿真环境。针对传统强化学习算法中难以通过奖励信号精准控制对抗过程中无人机的速度和攻击角度等问题,提出一种规则与智能耦合约束训练的多智能体深度确定性策略梯度(rule and intelligence coupling constrained multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient, RIC-MADDPG)算法,该算法采用规则对强化学习中无人机的动作进行约束。实验结果显示,基于RIC-MADDPG方法训练的无人机集群对抗模型能使得红方无人机集群在对抗中的胜率从53%提高至79%,表明采用“智能体训练—发现问题—编写规则—再次智能体训练—再次发现问题—再次编写规则”的方式对优化智能体对抗策略是有效的。研究结果对建立无人机集群智能攻防策略训练体系、开展规则与智能相耦合的集群战法研究具有一定参考意义。     

Scheduling combat logistics force replenishments at sea for the US Navy

The Replenishment at Sea Planner (RASP) is saving the U.S. Navy millions of dollars a year by reducing fuel consumption of its Combat Logistics Force (CLF). CLF shuttle supply ships deploy from ports to rendezvous with underway U.S. combatants and those of coalition partners. The overwhelming commodity transferred is fuel, ship‐to‐ship by hoses, while other important packaged goods and spare parts are high‐lined, or helicoptered between ships. The U.S. Navy is organized in large areas of responsibility called numbered fleets, and within each of these a scheduler must promulgate a daily forecast of CLF shuttle operations. The operational planning horizon extends out several weeks, or as far into the future as we can forecast demand. We solve RASP with integer linear optimization and a purpose‐built heuristic. RASP plans Replenishment‐at‐Sea (RAS) events with 4‐hour (Navy watch) time fidelity. For five years, RASP has served two purposes: (1) it helps schedulers generate a daily schedule and animates it using Google Earth, and (2) it automates reports command‐to‐ship messages that are essential to keep this complex logistics system operating.     

From Nationalism to Factionalism: Faultlines in the Naga Insurgency

Do ceasefires or peace talks create fragmentation in the insurgent groups? Rather than proposing claims that can offer predictions about armed groups behaviour under ceasefires or peace processes, the analysts tend to focus largely on the dynamics between state and non-state actor. The experts pay little attention to overtime changes in social and local political context which might contribute to propelling a rebel group towards fragmentation and factionalism. The present study intends to fill this gap by exploring the shifting role of public opinion and ethnic support for the peace talks to ascertain whether it can increase the likelihood of factionalism in rebel groups or not. This article applies this approach to the case of Naga National Movement (1947–2015) in India, and finds that the proposed variable appears to have increased the frequency of factionalism in the movement.     

Explaining Cohesion in an Insurgent Organization: The Case of the Mizo National Front

Despite the prevalence of violent uprisings against the states, existing literature has produced a generalized explanation of the causes and onset of such uprisings ignoring crucial aspects of (non-state) armed group cohesion, such as their capabilities to manage intra-group tensions and rivalries. In this paper, I examine recent research in the field of civil conflict to understand the importance of investigating underlying constraints which can cause serious impediments to the capabilities of a state during the course of a war. The paper then focuses on the importance of internal strategic resources, such as pre-war and wartime sociopolitical networks in which insurgents mobilize, recruit new cadres and maintain intra-group cooperation, to suggest how it can contain the consequences of counterinsurgency operations and other state strategies on the internal cohesion of an insurgent group. A detailed case study of the Mizo National Front (MNF) in India demonstrates the argument’s plausibility.