Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

A note on “resource flexibility with responsive pricing”

We revisit the capacity investment decision problem studied in the article “Resource Flexibility with Responsive Pricing” by Chod and Rudi [Operations Research 53, (2005) 532–548]. A monopolist firm producing two dependent (substitutable or complementary) products needs to determine the capacity of one flexible resource under demand risk so as to maximize its expected profit. Product demands are linear functions of the prices of both products, and the market potentials are random and correlated. We perform a comparative statics analysis on how demand variability and correlation impact the optimal capacity and the resulting expected profit. In particular, C&R study this problem under the following assumptions/approximations: (i) demand intercepts follow a bivariate Normal distribution; (ii) demand uncertainty is of an additive form; (iii) and under approximate expressions for the optimal capacity and optimal expected profit. We revisit Propositions 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10 of C&R without these assumptions and approximations, and show that these results continue to hold (i) for the exact expressions for the optimal expected profit and optimal capacity, and (ii) under any arbitrary continuous distribution of demand intercepts. However, we also show that the additive demand uncertainty is a critical assumption for the C&R results to hold. In particular, we provide a case of multiplicative uncertainty under which the C&R results (Propositions 2 and 3) fail. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010     

多功能复杂信号侦察可配置计算模型

复杂信号侦察处理是多功能数字阵列雷达(MFDAR)的重要组成部分,可以服务于MFDAR的雷达与通信信号侦察以及电子战等多种用途,其中信号侦察的实时性与功能的灵活适应性是MFDAR的关键。在详细研究MFDAR信号侦察处理特点基础上,提出了两阶段可配置的信号处理流程,构建了基于混合结构的宽带信号侦察可配置计算模型BSRRCM。BSRRCM对"非确定、非单向"的信号流进行了描述,利用"固化典型流程、设置有限配置点"的思想,BSRRCM将应用分解成可完全重配置的典型处理流程和可局部重配置的功能任务序列,快速映射到合适的计算平台上,在确保信号处理实时性前提下使系统获得了动态的灵活配置能力与可扩展性。     

Potential impact of recharging plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles on locational marginal prices

Plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), upon market penetration, will create additional recharging loads to the electric power systems. This article considers different recharging scenarios and uses game theoretic models to study the potential impact of the recharging loads on locational marginal prices (wholesale electricity prices). Computational results from a Pennsylvania‐New Jersey‐Maryland Interconnection case study show that, under the existing recharging infrastructures, even a small magnitude of load increase caused by PHEV recharging could have a significant undesirable impact on locational marginal prices. The impact could be mitigated to a varying extent by the availability of possible future recharging infrastructures, including realtime pricing recharging meters, battery stations, or vehicle‐to‐grid technology.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

基于Monte-Carlo方法的火炮瞄准校验系统精度评定

基于双经纬仪的火炮瞄准校验系统需要给出其校验精度,但传统的测量不确定度传递公式需要大量微分运算,校验精度计算很复杂,为此,提出了基于Monte-Carlo方法的火炮瞄准校验系统测量不确定度的评定。以调炮精度校验为例分析了校验系统的原理,结合调炮精度校验过程设计了基于Monte-Carlo方法的测量不确定度评定过程,分析比较了计算量的大小,并将评定结果与传统评定方法的结果进行比较。结果表明:二者一致性良好,Monte-Carlo方法能够完成对瞄准校验系统各校验项目的校验精度评定,并且简化了计算,节省了时间。     

基于改进蚁群算法的战时不确定性路径规划模型求解

战时路径规划的不确定性包括参数、约束条件和决策目标等的不确定性。以基本蚁群算法为基础,结合随机模拟和模糊模拟技术,提出了一种改进蚁群算法来求解战时不确定性路径规划问题,并通过仿真示例与其他算法进行了比较。结果表明：该算法求解效率更高,求解过程更为直观,能够满足战时不确定性路径规划问题的研究。     

激光——等离子弧复合焊铝锂合金熔化过程的分析

为了研究激光-等离子弧复合焊熔化过程中的传热和流动特性,建立了针对1420铝锂合金的数值分析模型。在同时考虑表面张力、电磁力和热浮力作用的情况下,利用有限控制容积法求解该模型,得到熔池流场和温度场的数值解,从而直观地反映熔池形状的变化过程,并采用无量纲分析法对不同作用力对熔池传热和流动过程的影响进行定量化研究。分析结果表明：熔深的增长快于熔宽,因为熔深增加的主要机理是小孔效应,而熔宽增加的机理为对流传热作用;表面张力对熔池流动的影响最大,比电磁力的作用大1个数量级,比热浮力的作用大3个数量级;在熔化过程中,对流传热的作用大于热传导作用,心数最大值达7．6。     

基于遗传算法优化网络权值的装箱问题研究

通过对Hopfield网络模型的研究,把一种类型的装箱问题转化成Hopfield网络模型,再利用遗传算法优化Hopfield网络中的连接权值,形成混合优化算法求解装箱问题,最后通过实例验证了该算法的有效性。     

基于证据熵对不确定性度量的决策表约简

知识约简是粗糙集理论的核心内容之一,产生的粗糙决策规则往往具有一定的不确定性.在变精度粗糙集的基础上,本文构造了符合证据理论框架的一组焦元,利用基本概率分配函数计算了证据的总体信息熵,度量了决策表的不确定性;以该度量作为启发信息,给出了决策表的启发式知识约简算法.计算实例表明了本文方法的有效性.     

基于多时刻目标运动模式分布的多模型算法

在机动目标跟踪过程中,传感器在利用量测数据计算目标状态的同时,需要完成对目标运动模式的估计,并根据估计结果对传感器滤波方程的参数或结构进行调整,以减小滤波方程与目标运动模式之间的差异,提高对机动目标的跟踪精度.针对已有多模型算法的不足,利用多个时刻的目标运动模式分布来解决混合估计问题,提出一种新的次优多模型(MTMM)算法.仿真结果证明了MTMM算法的有效性.