Directional change‐point detection for process control with multivariate categorical data

Most modern processes involve multiple quality characteristics that are all measured on attribute levels, and their overall quality is determined by these characteristics simultaneously. The characteristic factors usually correlate with each other, making multivariate categorical control techniques a must. We study Phase I analysis of multivariate categorical processes (MCPs) to identify the presence of change‐points in the reference dataset. A directional change‐point detection method based on log‐linear models is proposed. The method exploits directional shift information and integrates MCPs into the unified framework of multivariate binomial and multivariate multinomial distributions. A diagnostic scheme for identifying the change‐point location and the shift direction is also suggested. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate the detection effectiveness and the diagnostic accuracy.© 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

4点弯曲载荷作用下残余应力与弹性模量比对涂层/基体材料界面能量释放率的影响

采用有限元计算方法研究了在4点弯曲载荷作用下,残余应力、涂层与基体的弹性模量比(简称弹性模量比)对涂层/基体材料界面能量释放率及其相角的影响。结果表明:能量释放率随着残余拉应力、弹性模量比的增大而增大;能量释放率中的相角也随着残余拉应力的增大而增大,但并不敏感,其随着弹性模量比的增大而减小。研究结果可为评价涂层/基体材料界面结合性能提供理论依据,有助于深化对涂层/基体材料界面结合性能的认识。     

全长和埋入式组合抗滑桩在挖断村滑坡中的应用

重庆市奉节县挖断村滑坡规模巨大,滑坡体长180~250m,滑坡体厚15~35m,剩余下滑力达5 337 kN/m,采用了前排全长后排埋入式的新型组合抗滑支挡技术,大大节省了工程投资。介绍了这种新型组合抗滑结构的设计方法,重点介绍了桩的长度计算、各桩承担滑坡推力计算、治理后的监测数据。工程竣工2年的监测数据表明滑坡变形趋于稳定,说明采用全长和埋入式组合抗滑桩治理该滑坡是有效的。     

炮兵对有生力量压制比的仿真计算方法

为了评估炮兵对有生力量压制效果,应用离散事件仿真方法建立了炮兵射击有生力量仿真模型,提出一种炮兵对有生力量压制比的仿真计算方法。首先,给出了压制比的概念与模型。然后,建立了基于离散事件仿真的炮兵射击有生力量模型。最后,结合实例验证了仿真计算方法的正确性。     

雷达调频编码脉冲信号的设计与处理

现代雷达为获得较高的距离分辨力通常采用编码频率脉冲串信号和步进频率脉冲串信号,但都存在数据率低和较为严重的距离-多普勒耦合问题。在研究这两种信号特点的基础上,提出了调频编码脉冲信号形式并给出了相应的信号处理方法。经仿真对比可见,该信号形式及其处理方法能同时解决步进调频信号高距离-多普勒耦合、低数据率两大问题,具有较好的联合分辨力。     

试件水灰比和胶砂比对混凝土硫酸盐侵蚀速度影响

通过大量试验,采用强度指标研究了试件水灰比和胶砂比对硫酸盐侵蚀速度的影响.结果表明:试件的水灰比越大,胶砂比越小,侵蚀速度越快;为了加快硫酸盐侵蚀速度,宜采用大水灰比、小胶砂比的试件.在各种条件下,硫酸钠侵蚀破坏的速度比硫酸镁侵蚀快.对硫酸钠型侵蚀,采用抗折抗蚀系数作为判定指标较为合理,而对硫酸镁型侵蚀,应该综合考虑抗折抗蚀系数和抗压抗蚀系数.     

Monitoring censored lifetime data with a weighted‐likelihood scheme

Lifetime experiments are common in many research areas and industrial applications. Recently, process monitoring for lifetime observations has received increasing attention. However, some existing methods are inadequate as neither their in control (IC) nor out of control (OC) performance is satisfactory. In addition, the challenges associated with designing robust and flexible control schemes have yet to be fully addressed. To overcome these limitations, this article utilizes a newly developed weighted likelihood ratio test, and proposes a novel monitoring strategy that automatically combines the likelihood of past samples with the exponential weighted sum average scheme. The proposed Censored Observation‐based Weighted‐Likelihood (COWL) control chart gives desirable IC and OC performances and is robust under various scenarios. In addition, a self‐starting control chart is introduced to cope with the problem of insufficient reference samples. Our simulation shows a stronger power in detecting changes in the censored lifetime data using our scheme than using other alternatives. A real industrial example based on the breaking strength of carbon fiber also demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 631–646, 2017     

空对地攻击武器选用方法

空对地攻击中能否正确选用空对地武器,将直接影响空对地攻击的效果.讨论了一般的空对地武器选用原则和依据,并用概率论的方法建立了选用空地武器的效损比模型,最后给出具体算例说明模型在实际作战任务中的应用.     

装药长径比对EFP成型作用效果影响分析

针对装药长径比对EFP成型的影响,基于一种球缺型药型罩EFP,利用ANSYS／LS-DYNA仿真软件对其成型过程进行建模仿真,研究EFP成型过程及其各项参数．在该基础上,改变装药高度得到不同的装药长径比数据,并对不同长径比EFP形成过程进行仿真,得到不同装药长径比EFP的速度、速度增长率及炸药能量利用率等数据,为选择最佳装药长径比提供依据．     

Discriminating between the Weibull and log‐normal distributions

Log‐normal and Weibull distributions are the most popular distributions for modeling skewed data. In this paper, we consider the ratio of the maximized likelihood in choosing between the two distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the logarithm of the maximized likelihood ratio has been obtained. It is observed that the asymptotic distribution is independent of the unknown parameters. The asymptotic distribution has been used to determine the minimum sample size required to discriminate between two families of distributions for a user specified probability of correct selection. We perform some numerical experiments to observe how the asymptotic methods work for different sample sizes. It is observed that the asymptotic results work quite well even for small samples also. Two real data sets have been analyzed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004