South Asia's Missile Expansion

ABSTRACT

Over the past decade, contrary to declarations that they are pursuing “minimum” deterrence, India and Pakistan have considerably expanded their missile forces. India has developed eleven types of missiles while Pakistan has fielded nine. These missile forces have a mixed impact on deterrence stability. Both states' medium-range missiles strengthen their countervalue deterrent capabilities against the other, though India's China-specific missiles still have limitations. India's and Pakistan's short-range missiles and first-generation naval systems raise concerns about nuclear ambiguity, command and control, and escalation across the nuclear threshold, ultimately undermining deterrence stability on the subcontinent.     

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON LOW NUCLEAR NUMBERS

President Barack Obama has outlined a course toward lower numbers of US nuclear weapons. Much attention has been paid to the US-Russian context, where deterrence is believed to be basically stable and conditions ripe for gradually reducing arsenals on both sides. But considerably less attention has been paid to the possible implications of lower nuclear numbers on other regions of the world and the reactions of both adversaries and US allies. If nuclear reductions are to be stabilizing and beneficial to security, reassurance and strengthened nonproliferation efforts in various regions need to accompany nuclear cuts. But the specific problems and remedies across regions vary. This article summarizes the results of a multi-author study. It concludes that regions with US allies and formal extended deterrence pledges may pose more vexing problems than those areas of the world without such close allies or commitments.     

NUCLEAR STABILITY AT LOW NUMBERS

Chinese writings on the workings of nuclear stability, deterrence, and coercion are thin and politicized. Nevertheless, it is possible to glean, from direct and inferential evidence, rather pessimistic conclusions regarding Chinese views of nuclear stability at low numbers. While China has been living with low numbers in its own arsenal for decades, today it views missile defense and advanced conventional weapons as the primary threat to nuclear stability. More generally, China views nuclear stability as wedded to political amity. Because none of these would be directly addressed through further US and Russian arsenal reductions, China is unlikely to view such reductions as particularly stabilizing. While there is little in Chinese writing to suggest lower US and Russian numbers would encourage a “race to parity,” there are grounds to worry about China becoming more assertive as it gains confidence in Beijing's own increasingly secure second-strike forces.     

一类具有免疫时滞和病毒颗粒的HIV模型的动力学性态分析

考虑感染细胞的治愈和未感染细胞吸收作用的影响,研究一类具有免疫时滞和病毒颗粒的HIV模型,通过分析特征方程研究平衡点的局部稳定性,利用规范型理论和中心流行定理得到确定Hopl分支方向和分支周期解稳定性的计算公式,并通过构造Lyapunov泛函,讨论未感染平衡点的全局稳定性．     

反舰导弹大空域变轨的三维扩展比例导引律

为了使大空域变轨弹道的理论研究更符合反舰导弹的实际运动状态,建立了反舰导弹追踪虚拟目标的三维空间相对运动模型。同时,为了保证反舰导弹大空域变轨弹道的四段弹道平滑过渡,在导引律设计时同时考虑了脱靶量要求和末端落角要求。应用Lyapunov稳定性理论求解出满足要求的三维扩展比例导引律,对大空域变轨弹道的四段弹道设计了相应的过载控制指令,并进行了仿真研究。仿真结果表明:所提出的三维扩展比例导引律可以使反舰导弹顺利完成大空域飞行任务,而且保证了反舰导弹的所有性能指标均满足要求。     

Local defence forces and counterinsurgency in Afghanistan: learning from the CIA's Village Defense Program in South Vietnam

Some scholars would have us believe that the distinctions between military and policing roles, methods and objectives have become increasingly blurred by the security demands of a post-Cold War and post-11 September global and domestic order. This article explores the current state of the police–military divide through a conceptual and case study analysis. It concludes that, in this case, there is some conflation occurring at a macro-level as international and domestic affairs have become increasingly indistinct, but the article also demonstrates that the actual ethos and practice of these agencies still differs strongly. Most importantly, the article argues that this distinction is in fact a very useful one in planning for future peace support operations     

无人飞行器静稳定性问题的研究

从飞行器静稳定性的定义出发,介绍了3种不同的静稳定性,即纵向静稳定性、横向静稳定性和航向静稳定性。分别讨论了3种静稳定性的判据,进一步分析了影响静稳定性的部件和因素,说明了采用放宽静稳定性对无人飞行器产生的影响。     

用混合有限元模型分析船体振动问题研究

对混合有限元模型应用于船体振动分析的方法进行了讨论,并建立了某船的混合有限元模型,分别对其船体总振动和局部振动进行了计算.计算结果表明,混合有限元模型的总振动计算结果略小于迁移矩阵法,而局部振动计算结果与孤立模型存在较大差异.     

具有变时滞的离散型随机BAM神经网络的稳定性

研究一类具有变时滞的离散型随机BAM神经网络。通过构造Lyapunov泛函以及线性矩阵不等式（LMI）,得出了离散系统全局渐近稳定的充分条件。     

一类具免疫时滞的HIV模型的动力学性态分析

研究一类具有时滞和免疫反应的HIV模型。首先通过分析特征方程研究了平衡点的局部稳定性以及Hopf分支的存在性。然后利用规范型理论和中心流行理论得到了确定Hopf分支方向和分支周期解稳定性的计算公式。接着讨论了无病平衡点的全局稳定性。最后通过数值模拟说明了所得理论结果。