Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with interval censored samples

This article studies the problem of designing Bayesian sampling plans (BSP) with interval censored samples. First, an algorithm for deriving the conventional BSP is proposed. The BSP is shown to possess some monotonicity. Based on the BSP and using the property of monotonicity, a new sampling plan modified by the curtailment procedure is proposed. The resulting curtailed Bayesian sampling plan (CBSP) can reduce the duration time of life test experiment, and it is optimal in the sense that its associated Bayes risk is smaller than the Bayes risk of the BSP if the cost of the duration time of life test experiment is considered. A numerical example to compute the Bayes risks of BSP and CBSP and related quantities is given. Also, a Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to illustrate the performance of the CBSP compared with the BSP. The simulation results demonstrate that our proposed CBSP has better performance because it has smaller risk. The CBSP is recommended. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 604–616, 2015     

基于时间切片的通信计划合规性评估模型

针对体系作战背景下通信计划规划任务多线性和关系复杂的问题,提出了一种通信计划合规性评估模型。该模型通过构建计划时间切片,描述了多个通信保障任务主线在各阶段的全局关系视图,并定义了通信链路连接矩阵、电磁频谱三级规划和指控系统命名类量化,描述了通信计划的基本内容,同时定义了3类评估规则和3种评估运算法则,形成了完整的合规性评估体系。最后,通过实例分析验证了模型有效性,结果表明,评估模型能够较好地区分不同信息需求下的通信计划合理程度。     

紧固件用钢复验的动态抽验方案

本文针对现行紧固件原材料进厂抽样复验方法的不足,套改《ISO2859计数抽查程序和图表》,提出动态抽样方案,并对新旧方案实际应用进行了比较。以比较科学的决策,取得提高效益、降低消耗的结果.     

应急物资保障计划辅助决策模型

提出了一个制定应急物资保障计划的流程,构建了制定应急物资保障计划的数学模型,并应用运筹学的方法对其进行了优化.该模型为制定应急物资保障计划提供了有效的途径.     

现代战争计划的设计

现代战争的战争形态和作战样式发生了巨大改变,传统战争计划的制定难以适应新的作战指挥方式。为提高作战指挥的时效性和作战决策的正确性,对现代战争的战争计划的设计要求和设计流程进行了分析,总结了需要解决的关键技术,对深入开展战争计划的设计研究具有一定的启示。     

Statistical equivalency and optimality of simple step‐stress accelerated test plans for the exponential distribution

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is commonly used to obtain reliability information about a product in a timely manner. Several stress loading designs have been proposed and recent research interests have emerged concerning the development of equivalent ALT plans. Step‐stress ALT (SSALT) is one of the most commonly used stress loadings because it usually shortens the test duration and reduces the number of required test units. This article considers two fundamental questions when designing a SSALT and provides formal proofs in answer to each. Namely: (1) can a simple SSALT be designed so that it is equivalent to other stress loading designs? (2) when optimizing a multilevel SSALT, does it degenerate to a simple SSALT plan? The answers to both queries, under certain reasonable model assumptions, are shown to be a qualified YES. In addition, we provide an argument to support the rationale of a common practice in designing a SSALT, that is, setting the higher stress level as high as possible in a SSALT plan. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

基于生存能力的作战方案评估仿真模型

导弹武器系统的生存能力是反映作战方案好坏的定量依据之一。给出了基于生存能力的导弹作战方案评估系统的模型体系和构成,通过对该系统评估模型中的指标分析,建立了伪装生存能力、防护生存能力、机动生存能力等多个模型,并将其综合为对作战方案的生存能力评估模型。经过一定的仿真试验证明,模型正确,运行结果符合实际。     

装备保障计划规范化建模方法研究

采用UML对装备保障计划从静态和动态两个框架进行建模,直观形象地描述了装备保障计划的内容,为装备保障计划的自动生成提供了理论基础,并且以陆军师弹药保障计划为例进行说明。     

美国“深绿”计划对指挥控制的影响

“深绿”计划是美国国防部高级研究计划署为满足现代战争对快速决策的需求而提出的.“深绿”计划的目的是将仿真嵌入指挥控制系统,利用仿真支持正在进行的军事行动.通过对深绿体系结构、实现深绿的关键技术以及深绿实施方案的分析,重点研究了深绿计划对指挥控制的影响.该研究力图为我军作战指挥决策支持系统的建设提供方法和技术上的启发及借鉴.     

汶川地震灾后重建住房规划环境制约因素及对策

汶川特大地震发生,四川省共有153个县（市、区）不同程度受灾,全省灾区需完成城乡住房重建49131．22万m^2（445．4万套）,重建城乡住房规划受到资源、环境的制约。通过对其制约因素分析,提出了对环境保护、资源保护有针对性的措施和对策,并对住房选址和建设生态人居环境提出了建议,有利于灾后重建城乡住房规划向建设生态人居环境方向发展。