基于BP和Hopfield神经网络的航空肼燃料保障安全评价

针对航空肼燃料保障安全评价的复杂性和非线性,提出并建立了基于BP和Hopfield神经网络的动态安全评价模型。在综合分析国内外肼燃料保障安全评价的基础上,针对航空肼燃料保障过程中出现的问题,构建并优化了指标体系,选取前馈神经网络中的BP网络和反馈神经网络中的Hopfield网络建立评价模型。在详细说明了BP和Hopfield神经网络的构建方法后,进行实例验证,并对预测效果进行了比较分析。仿真表明,两种模型都能正确评价安全保障状态。但在收敛速度、联想记忆功能方面Hopfield神经网络优于BP神经网络。将BP和Hopfield神经网络用于肼燃料保障安全评价过程中,具有适用性和可行性,对于航空肼燃料保障的安全建设与安全管理研究具有重要意义。     

基于“综合赋权”模糊物元模型的机场运行安全评价

为了保证机场运行安全,防止事故的发生,依据模糊物元分析理论,结合机场运行安全评价指标体系,构建了基于综合赋权的机场系统模糊物元安全评价模型。在该模型中,通过层次分析法和熵值法主客观综合所确定的权重,为指标体系进行线性加权,实现综合赋权,从而将计算得到的综合权重用于模糊物元建模与评价。实例分析结果表明,该模型步骤简单,过程科学合理,并兼顾了主客观因素的影响,评价结果总体反映了机场的真实安全水平,也为机场安全的科学评价提供了新思路。     

Nuclear deterrence and cyber warfare: coexistence or competition?

Nuclear deterrence and cyber war seem almost antithetical in their respective intellectual pedigrees. Nuclear weapons are unique in their ability to create mass destruction in a short time. Information or “cyber” weapons, at least for the most part, aim at sowing confusion or mass disruption instead of widespread physical destruction. Nevertheless, there are some intersections between cyber and nuclear matters, and these have the potential to become troublesome for the future of nuclear deterrence. For example, cyber attacks might complicate the management of a nuclear crisis. As well, information attacks on command-control and communications systems might lead to a mistaken nuclear launch based on false warnings, to erroneous interpretations of data or to panic on account of feared information blackout. It is not inconceivable that future nuclear strike planning will include a preliminary wave of cyber strikes or at least a more protracted “preparation of the battlefield” by roaming through enemy networks to plant malware or map vulnerabilities.     

Reconsidering minimum deterrence in South Asia: Indian responses to Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons

India’s nuclear doctrine and posture has traditionally been shaped by minimum deterrence logic. This logic includes assumptions that possession of only a small retaliatory nuclear force generates sufficient deterrent effect against adversaries, and accordingly that development of limited nuclear warfighting concepts and platforms are unnecessary for national security. The recent emergence of Pakistan’s Nasr tactical nuclear missile platform has generated pressures on Indian minimum deterrence. This article analyzes Indian official and strategic elite responses to the Nasr challenge, including policy recommendations and attendant implications. It argues that India should continue to adhere to minimum deterrence, which serves as the most appropriate concept for Indian nuclear policy and best supports broader foreign and security policy objectives. However, the form through which Indian minimum deterrence is delivered must be rethought in light of this new stage of regional nuclear competition.     

Research on design and firing performance of Si-based detonator

For the chip integration of MEMS (micro-electromechanical system) safety and arming device, a miniature detonator needs to be developed to reduce the weight and volume of explosive train. A Si-based micro-detonator is designed and fabricated, which meets the requirement of MEMS safety and arming device. The firing sensitivity of micro-detonator is tested according to GJB/z377A-94 sensitivity test methods: Langlie. The function time of micro-detonator is measured using wire probe and photoelectric transducer. The result shows the average firing voltage is 6.4 V when the discharge capacitance of firing electro-circuit is 33 μF. And the average function time is 5.48 μs. The firing energy actually utilized by Si-based micro-detonator is explored.     

大型商业综合体内影院消防设计探讨

重点介绍了某大型商业综合体内影院的消防设计方案,并进行烟气流动和人员疏散的数值模拟分析,得出该影院消防设计是安全可行的.为确保此类影院的消防安全,建议其疏散楼梯设计不受商场营业与否的影响,且应定期维护保养消防系统.     

中庭式建筑防火设计探讨

根据消防实际工作经验,以某星级饭店为工程研究对象,就中庭式建筑的火灾危险性以及规范中关于中庭防火设计问题存在的不明确之处进行探讨,并提出了一些建议和解决对策.     

小型旅馆消防安全现状及管理对策探讨

近年来,各地小型旅馆发展迅速,但由于其小而散使消防安全监管难度增大,从业人员消防安全意识淡薄,自身消防安全隐患较多,极易发生群死群伤火灾事故.介绍了小型旅馆的特点,分析了小型旅馆存在的消防安全隐患及消防监督管理工作存在的问题,探讨了加强小型旅馆消防安全管理的措施.     

消防部队作战训练安全问题及对策分析

随着公安消防部队灭火救援职能的不断拓展和训练内容的改革变化,官兵作战训练安全风险日益增大,伤亡事故逐年上升.分析案例、总结教训,虽有灾害事故复杂性等客观原因,但也暴露出作战训练中安全意识不强、制度不落实、组织指挥不当等内在因素,结合部队作战训练工作实际,深入剖析作战训练安全隐患、成因及对策,系统地研究作战训练安全管理的理论和方法,并提出实践中的可行性对策.     

大型超市火灾危险性及消防安全对策探析

随着大型超市的不断涌现,其消防安全问题越来越受到人们的关注。介绍了大型超市的概念,重点分析了大型超市的火灾危险性,从审验关口、安全疏散、消防设施、消防安全管理、灭火救援预案等方面提出了有针对性的消防安全对策。