系统动力学炮兵侦察感知系统能力生成建模与仿真

信息化作战,侦察感知能力是炮兵获取决策优势与行动优势的基础。依据炮兵侦察感知系统的功能与构成,分析炮兵侦察感知信息流程,运用系统动力学分析侦察感知系统的各要素及影响关系,进而建立炮兵侦察感知系统作战能力生成的系统动力学模型。依据设定作战背景,仿真分析了传感器性能、网络性能等对炮兵侦察感知系统能力生成影响问题,得出了较为可靠的结论,为炮兵基于信息系统体系作战能力要素建设提供决策依据。     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Generalized orienteering problem with resource dependent rewards

We introduce a generalized orienteering problem (OP) where, as usual, a vehicle is routed from a prescribed start node, through a directed network, to a prescribed destination node, collecting rewards at each node visited, to maximize the total reward along the path. In our generalization, transit on arcs in the network and reward collection at nodes both consume a variable amount of the same limited resource. We exploit this resource trade‐off through a specialized branch‐and‐bound algorithm that relies on partial path relaxation problems that often yield tight bounds and lead to substantial pruning in the enumeration tree. We present the smuggler search problem (SSP) as an important real‐world application of our generalized OP. Numerical results show that our algorithm applied to the SSP outperforms standard mixed‐integer nonlinear programming solvers for moderate to large problem instances. We demonstrate model enhancements that allow practitioners to represent realistic search planning scenarios by accounting for multiple heterogeneous searchers and complex smuggler motion. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Lost in transition: the South African military and counterinsurgency

Washington's growing reliance upon international private security companies (PSCs) will lead to these firms becoming prominent vehicles in the prosecution of the counterinsurgency in Iraq. This shift, however, risks labeling PSCs as mercenaries and presents considerable challenges regarding the control of non-state violence. Moreover, tradeoffs exist regarding the different nationalities of PSC personnel. Utilization of personnel from the developed world risks compromising the capabilities of Special Operations Forces. Additionally, shifts in casualty recognition amongst US policymakers and the media suggest that the private option is becoming politically salient and thus less useful. Many developing world states are increasingly concerned about how the global outsourcing of security sector expertise risks their stability and ability to execute coherent policy. Finally, the employment of Iraqis in PSCs sends mixed messages to the Iraqi populace about the need for and the effectiveness of a cohesive and responsible indigenous security sector.

Frankly, I'd like to see the government get out of war altogether and leave the whole feud to private industry.

[Catch-22 – Major Milo Minderbinder]     

Maritime interdiction in Sri Lanka's counterinsurgency

A comprehensive maritime interdiction strategy to attack the insurgent's logistic system was a key element in the defeat of the Tamil Tigers. The campaign of maritime interdiction required the Sri Lankan Navy (SLN) to attack LTTE arms smuggling, sea piracy, and maritime terrorism. The SLN degraded the insurgency's robust maritime logistical network while also devising tactics to engage the maritime insurgents who reacted with swarm and suicide boat tactics. The efforts of the SLN forced the Tamil Tigers to confront the government's final land offensives with diminished resources, thus collapsing a three decades’ old insurgency in a matter of months.     

At war with social theory: Instrumental and communicative action in US military doctrine during the War on Terror

As US counterinsurgency campaigns draw to a close, doctrine for asymmetric warfare written during the War on Terror has come under heavy criticism. While many have argued that this shift to ‘winning hearts and minds’ is evidence that the United States is taking humanitarianism and nation-building seriously, others argue that a wide gap exists between US counterinsurgency doctrine and the protection of civilians afflicted by conflict. In this article, I show that the latter is true by comparing theories of instrumental and communicative action to US doctrine for operational design, stability operations, and counterinsurgency. I argue that these texts treat the people as an object to be manipulated for the achievement of pre-determined self-interested strategic goals rather than members of a community that jointly designs operations to fulfill shared objectives. However, US doctrine does contain communicative elements that, if prioritized, would better support humanitarian and state-building objectives otherwise subordinated in the War on Terror.     

Comprehensive approaches,diverse coherences: the different levels of policy coherence in the Dutch 3D approach in Afghanistan

Since 2000, international organisations such as the UN, NATO and the EU, but also countries, have started to apply what has been called the comprehensive approach to crisis management. This article unpacks this comprehensive approach implemented by the Dutch in Uruzgan province, Afghanistan. It first borrows and expands a conceptual framework developed by De Coning and Friis. Subsequently, it maps the different sorts of coherence in the mission by applying the framework. It shows how in practice there was not one single comprehensive approach, but many different forms of interaction between a number of organisational units. Each interaction had its own distinct issues and its own level of coherence. The level of coherence differed depending on the level at which the interaction took place – strategic at headquarters level versus operational at field level – and at what point in the mission it happened – in most cases it moved towards more cohesion.     

预警机伴随支援下的飞机整体作战能力评估

为定量研究预警机伴随支援下的飞机整体作战能力,把预警机和战斗机看作一个整体,建立层次分析模型;充分考虑预警机对战斗机作战的影响,提出综合对数法飞机整体作战能力评估模型.针对在预警机伴随支援下飞机作战参数发生的变化,合理求解模型.通过算例得出预警机提升作战能力的定量结果,证明了综合对数法评估模型较好地完成了预警机伴随支援下的飞机整体作战能力评估.     

论有效提高体育课堂教学质量的途径

体育教师课堂组织管理能力的高低直接决定着课堂教学的效果与质量,最大限度地调动学生课堂学习的自主性,有效地维持学生的适宜行为,保持良好的课堂秩序,科学地组织教学内容,创造良好的教学环境,不断提高教师的自身素质,才能促进教学改革,达到提高教学质量的效果和目的。     

基于效果的装备保障指挥决策与体系控制研究

以探索装备保障的信息化决策与控制方法为目的,从基于效果作战的观点出发,利用概念模型,从OODA环的相互作用、混沌现象和自同步及蜂群效应3个方面,研究了网络中心条件下装备保障指挥决策与体系控制的激励与响应模式,并得出了相关结论,以此为基础提出了装备保障指挥决策与体系控制的3项建议.