South Africa's threat environment: a guide for the National Planning Commission

Abstract

The mandate of South Africa's recently appointed National Planning Commission includes addressing ‘defence and security matters’. This article seeks to outline the central elements of the threat environment facing South Africa in the foreseeable future. It is argued that South Africa faces no meaningful existential threat from conventional military forces but that its security forces will need to be prepared to address possible raids and attacks by conventional military forces both on home soil and on vital interests beyond the nation's borders. Other threats highlighted include the threats posed by potential insurgencies, by terrorism, and by crime, social unrest and banditry. Also addressed is the danger of so-called hybrid threats, in which two or more of the single threat types outlined here are combined. Finally, the article challenges the National Planning Commission to rethink South Africa's policy on peace operations in the light of the need to ensure the safety and security of the nation's citizenry.     

‘Fighting for peace’

In Africa, most of the present conflicts are civil, intra-state wars where belligerent groups use guerrilla tactics to achieve various political, economic or ideological objectives. The atrocities and the effect of these on-going wars on innocent civilians, human suffering, poverty and development are beyond comprehension. Not surprisingly, the majority of current peace operations are in Africa, with more than 70 countries contributing forces to these conflict zones. On the continent, South Africa has come to assume a leading role in peace operations and is now a major troop-contributing country to UN and AU missions. In the past 11 years, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) has taken part in no fewer than 14 peace missions. This article provides a brief background of the conflicts in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan, the different United Nations (UN) and African Union (AU) mandates under which peacekeepers had to operate as well as their objectives, and the extent of South Africa's involvement in the various missions. In the last section, the major challenges, that these operations have posed are highlighted.     

Jihad or qatal? Examining Al Qaeda's modus operandi

There is widespread acknowledgment that the modus operandi of jihadis affiliated with Al Qaeda and associated movements (AQAM) relies on brutal terror-inducing tactics which, more often than not, target Muslim and non-Muslim non-combatants. This article comparatively analyzes the AQAM modus operandi within the traditional stipulations of Islamic precepts with respect to waging jihad al saghir. The purpose is to glean whether or not such tactics such as suicide bombings, declaring fellow Muslim apostates in order to kill them, use of IEDs and EFPs to target civilians, constitute legitimate rules of engagement in jihad al saghir.     

‘Immediate redress’: USS Potomac and the pirates of Quallah Batoo

Maritime interests in the twenty-first century are not immune to the growing number of irregular challenges and hybrid threats that have come to dominate land warfare. In order to better understand these challenges a study of naval history can help provide a vital foundation. In the early 1830s the United States Navy dispatched the frigate USS Potomac to Sumatra to investigate a pirate attack on the spice trader Friendship. Potomac's crew of sailors and Marines conducted a landing at the village Quallah Batoo and fought a pitched battle. As the navies of the world approach naval irregular warfare in the new century, studying past examples like Potomac's mission can help illuminate the principles of successful naval irregular warfare.     

建筑材料燃烧性能分级新变革

介绍我国建筑材料燃烧性能分级的现状和未来的发展方向,提出引进欧盟的分级体系形成新的分级方法,并进行分析比较。     

战时营房保障资源动员能力模糊综合评判

战时营房保障资源动员是战时国民经济动员的重要组成部分。提高战时营房保障资源动员能力是做好战时营房保障资源动员工作的关键。由于影响营房保障资源动员能力的因素较多,既有定性的,又有定量的,且各因素又难以精确地描述,所以其评判过程具有模糊性。通过建立评判指标体系,应用模糊综合评判方法对战时营房保障资源动员能力作出评判,该方法具有较强的应用价值。最后,给出了一个应用实例。     

层次分析法在潜艇作战能力评估中的应用

本文采用层次分析法（AHP：Analysis Hierarchy Process）与Delphi相结合的方法对潜艇的作战能力进行了科学评估,不仅可以为潜艇的作战使用提供指导,也可为潜艇的改进和发展提供量化依据。     

基于网络分析法的弹药生产响应能力影响因素

针对未来战场对弹药需求动态、突发、受任务冲击影响等特点,提出弹药生产响应能力概念,建立了任务冲击条件下弹药生产响应能力影响因素的指标体系。运用网络分析法,建立典型结构的弹药生产响应能力影响因素的网络模型,得出弹药生产响应能力的关键影响因素,为弹药生产响应能力分析与提高提供了科学研究方法。     

Turbo均衡的误码率性能分析及应用

对Turbo均衡系统中的分量编码器、约束长度、交织长度、迭代次数、码率等参数进行了系统分析,在log-MAP算法基础上,仿真出了这些参数与误码率之间的定量关系,并分析了Turbo均衡在高斯白噪声信道和瑞利信道中的不同表现,为Turbo均衡的具体应用提供了可靠的参数选择依据。针对短波信道不稳定,短波电台数传误码率高的情况,设计了以Turbo均衡为核心的无线增强解决方案,并通过仿真验证了其在不同信噪比条件下降低误码率的效果。     

军民融合框架下非战争军事行动应急防疫保障体系建设的思考

2020年初发生的"新冠肺炎"疫情是新中国成立以来防控难度最大的重大突发公共卫生事件,也是对军队应急防疫保障体系的实际检验。军队应立足于军民融合战略思想的大背景,着眼非战争军事行动应急防疫保障体系建设的实际,完善重大疫情防控体制机制,进一步健全公共卫生体系,以全面提升防控和救治能力。本文结合当前新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情和以往非战争军事行动应急防疫保障的实践经验,分析了非战争军事行动卫生防疫保障的特点,阐述了其经验做法和存在的不足,从防疫指挥救治、应急物资保障、卫勤保障法律、心理危机干预以及防疫研发攻关等五个方面给出了对策措施,希翼随着军民融合不断深入推进,军地救治经验的相互交流和科研技术的协助攻关,本研究能够为非战争军事行动应急防疫保障体系建设提供一些参考。