Capacity investment decisions under risk aversion

This article studies the optimal capacity investment problem for a risk‐averse decision maker. The capacity can be either purchased or salvaged, whereas both involve a fixed cost and a proportional cost/revenue. We incorporate risk preference and use a consumption model to capture the decision maker's risk sensitivity in a multiperiod capacity investment model. We show that, in each period, capacity and consumption decisions can be separately determined. In addition, we characterize the structure of the optimal capacity strategy. When the parameters are stationary, we present certain conditions under which the optimal capacity strategy could be easily characterized by a static two‐sided (s, S) policy, whereby, the capacity is determined only at the beginning of period one, and held constant during the entire planning horizon. It is purchased up to B when the initial capacity is below b, salvaged down to Σ when it is above σ, and remains constant otherwise. Numerical tests are presented to investigate the impact of demand volatility on the optimal capacity strategy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 218–235, 2016     

论大型客车火灾危险性及其技术防范措施

近年来,汽车火灾形势日益严峻,严重威胁着人们的生命财产安全。因此,如何对大型客车火灾进行有效地风险防范,最大限度减少人员的伤亡和财产的损失有着非常重要的现实意义。针对大型客车自身结构的特点进行研究,就如何通过技术手段提高大型客车防火性能提出看法。     

高陡度非球面磨削亚表面损伤深度规律

具有高陡度非球面特性的光学元件可以明显改善光学系统的空气动力学性能,从而提升和优化系统综合性能。磨削加工方法可以作为此类元件的前期加工工序,而磨削难免会造成零件的亚表面损伤,且在这种高陡度非球面磨削加工中磨削参数是实时变化的,造成整个工件亚表面损伤深度不一致。针对这种情况,建立亚表面损伤预测模型,并结合半球形砂轮磨削的特点,通过理论计算预测非球面磨削亚表面损伤深度分布规律。在此基础上,以热压多晶氟化镁平面为对象进行模拟参数实验,通过磁流变抛斑点法得到各组参数下亚表面损伤深度情况,结果显示损伤深度范围在12.79μm~20.96μm之间,且沿试件半径方向由内向外呈增大趋势,结果与预测模型相吻合。     

使用图像优化方法估计水体调制传递函数

针对水体属性的变化使图像复原困难的问题,提出了一种从退化的水下图像中估计自然水体调制传递函数的方法。该方法首先建立了自然水体的调制传递函数与其固有光学特性参数之间的关系,然后采用图像复原技术对图像进行复原,最后使用粒子群优化算法来优化调制传递函数的相关参数。仿真实验表明:该方法能有效对水下图像进行复原,且不需测量水体的光学参数就能估计出自然水体的调制传递函数。该方法用于水下激光成像系统的图像复原可取得明显效果。     

CFO条件下的OFDM子载波调制样式识别方法

提出了一种基于信号幅度分布特征与多次方谱线特征相结合的调制样式识别算法。该算法主要基于正交解调后的正交频分复用子载波信号的幅度分布特征,采用直方图统计的方法实现多进制相移键控和多进制正交幅度调制识别,用多方次谱特征实现多进制相移键控类的调制识别。相比基于经典的高阶累积量的调制识别算法,具有更好的载波频率残留偏差适应能力,在载波频率偏差条件下,提高了调制识别率;相比循环平稳方法,具有更好的信噪比适应能力。仿真实验结果表明了该方法的有效性,相同的识别率下能适应更低的信噪比。     

The Production and Deposition of the Guisborough Helmet

In September 1878 the British Museum received a donation of a folded metal plate which had been embossed and gilded. Restoration of the object revealed that the folded plate was in fact the outer casing of a Roman copper alloy cavalry sports type helmet which dates to the late second or third century AD. The story of what became known as the Guisborough helmet began 14 years earlier in what was then the North Riding of Yorkshire when workers employed by the Cleveland Railway Company discovered a ‘very curious plate of metal’ during road construction. It appears that the helmet was deliberately prepared for deposition and buried at a depth of c30 cm close to a stream. Examination by the authors suggests that this was a high value item that had been repaired many times. Experimental evidence suggests that the decoration alone required approximately 16 h to fashion.     

风载荷对某发射装置待发射状态的影响

应用冯.卡门功率谱和谐波合成法生成了考虑脉动效应的瞬时风速时程曲线;计算了发射筒各段的等效风压及等效力矩,给出了作用于发射筒迎风面的风压总值及等效力矩;最后将载荷作为输入条件,进行动力学分析,获得了风载荷作用下发射装置的动态响应。通过分析可知:由于发射装置具有刚度强、质量大的特点,风载荷作用下发射装置的速度、加速度响应均较低,因此,风载荷主要影响发射筒的倾斜程度。     

COSMIC 掩星反演的水汽廓线质量分析

利用2006—2012年北半球冬季低纬度地区(30°S~30°N)无线电探空站数据及全球大气成分和气候监测再分析数据对1000 h Pa~200 h Pa高度层的气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统全球定位系统掩星反演的比湿廓线进行了精度和可靠性验证。结果表明,水汽对气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统掩星反演影响较大,尤其在中、低对流层及热带地区等水汽含量比较大的地区,且气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统掩星数据在850 hpa以下可能并不太适用于评估其他数据。     

不同干扰对QSPK解调性能的影响分析

随着数字卫星通信的快速发展,QPSK作为数字卫星通信系统中一种重要的调制方式,其解调性能也受到越来越多的关注。主要分析QPSK信号在已调干扰信号下的解调性能,并推导出使得QPSK调制信号解调性能最差的干扰信号的统计分布,而且此时统计分布符合QPSK调制方式干扰信号的特征。最后通过实验仿真分析得出信噪比未超过一定值时QPSK调制信号在QPSK调制干扰信号下解调性能最差,并与不同已调制干扰和AWGN干扰下的解调性能作比较。     

From Nationalism to Factionalism: Faultlines in the Naga Insurgency

Do ceasefires or peace talks create fragmentation in the insurgent groups? Rather than proposing claims that can offer predictions about armed groups behaviour under ceasefires or peace processes, the analysts tend to focus largely on the dynamics between state and non-state actor. The experts pay little attention to overtime changes in social and local political context which might contribute to propelling a rebel group towards fragmentation and factionalism. The present study intends to fill this gap by exploring the shifting role of public opinion and ethnic support for the peace talks to ascertain whether it can increase the likelihood of factionalism in rebel groups or not. This article applies this approach to the case of Naga National Movement (1947–2015) in India, and finds that the proposed variable appears to have increased the frequency of factionalism in the movement.