脉冲末修弹落点预测导引方法研究

在分析剩余射程影响因素的基础上,以弹道特征参数弹道高y及速度矢量分量Vx和Vy为解释变量,以回归分析方法为数学工具,建立脉冲末修弹剩余射程预测模型。以目标点与弹丸预测落点之间的差值为广义弹道偏差,结合数值仿真,对落点预测导引进行深入研究,验证了回归分析模型的可行性。     

高重频模式下的海杂波仿真方法

机载脉冲多普勒雷达在高重频模式下的海杂波仿真精确度是影响整个雷达系统仿真的先决因素。在分析基于网格法的杂波功率谱模型的前提下,设计了一种利用杂波功率谱进行时域重构,产生幅度分布服从对数-正态分布海杂波的仿真模型。仿真结果与理论值吻合较好,说明仿真开发模式是可行的,仿真模型是正确、有效的。     

信息熵与TOPSIS装备保障力量部署方案优化

针对装备保障力量部署方案复杂性和模糊性特点,在分析装备保障力量部署的内容、影响因素及方案优化目的基础上,建立了装备保障力量部署方案评估指标体系,采用信息熵理论来确定评估指标的权重,并提出了基于熵权TOPS IS的装备保障力量部署方案优选方法,使装备保障力量部署方案决策更加科学合理,具有一定的实用性。     

考虑腐蚀因素的船体结构寿命预测方法

为建立考虑腐蚀因素的船体结构寿命预测方法,在分析现有常用的船体结构腐蚀损伤时变模型的基础上,根据舰船维修保障实际情况建立了考虑腐蚀防护系统作用时间和维修时间等因素的腐蚀时变模型。根据相关规范选择了船体结构腐蚀寿命标准,并建立了一种计算船体结构腐蚀寿命的方法。该方法建立了船体结构腐蚀寿命与腐蚀防护系统作用时间和修理时间等因素之间的量化关系,可以用于预测均匀腐蚀条件下船体结构寿命,也可以反过来指导腐蚀防护系统设计指标的选择和船体结构维修策略的确定。     

Storage life prediction under pre-strained thermally-accelerated aging of HTPB coating using the change of crosslinking density

In order to predict the storage life of a certain type of HTPB (hydroyl-terminated polybutadiene) coating at 25 C and analyze the influence of pre-strain on the storage life, the accelerated aging tests of HTPB coating at 40 C, 50 C, 60 C, 70 C with the pre-strain of 0%, 3%, 6%, 9%, respectively were carried out. The variation regularity of the change of crosslinking density was analyzed and the aging model of HTPB coating under pre-strained thermally-accelerated aging was proposed. The storage life of HTPB coating at 25 C was estimated by using the Berthelot equation as the end point of the aging life with a 30% decrease in maximum elongation. The results showed that the change of crosslinking density of HTPB coating increased with the increase of aging temperature and aging time, and decreased with the in-crease of pre-strain. Under 0% pre-strain, the relationship between the change of crosslinking density of HTPB coating and the aging time can be described by the logarithmic model with the confidence probability greater than 99%.The stress relaxation phenomenon existed under 3%, 6% and 9% pre-strained aging. The aging model considering chemical aging and pre-strain was established with the confidence probability greater than 90%. The storage life of HTPB coating was 15.2935 years at 25 C under 0% pre-strain, which was reduced by 13.9007%, 75.6949% and 89.7859% under 3%, 6% and 9% pre-strain, respectively. The existence of pre-strain has a serious impact on the storage life of HTPB coating, therefore, the pre-strain should be avoided as much as possible during the actual storage.     

未来30年太空安全发展趋势及影响

“太空安全战略”专题编者按 组稿专家：杨乐平（国防科技大学空天科学学院教授、博士生导师） 近年来,以美国重建太空司令部与天军独立为标志,国际太空领域战略竞争与军事对抗日益加剧,太空前所未有地应用于军事与安全,太空安全也受到了前所未有的挑战。为了解未来太空安全发展和主要国家太空安全战略动向,深化太空安全战略研究,《国防科技》编辑部于2021年6月启动“太空安全战略”专题征文活动,国内相关学者积极投稿,经专家遴选,本期发表入选稿件6篇。来稿内容涵盖未来30年太空安全发展预测、美国太空安全最新发展、俄罗斯太空安全政策、欧盟太空安全政策、日本太空安全战略以及印度太空力量发展等主题,较为全面地反映了当前国际太空安全领域的最新发展与战略动向。从长远看,随着地球以外人类活动的增加、太空新经济蓬勃发展和太空创造财富规模不断扩大,水平大幅提升,太空将超越陆、海、空成为国家安全最重要的领域。从这个意义上讲,太空安全战略研究学术价值与影响较大,值得高度关注。     

基于MSP430单片机的海浪水压场自动测量系统

提出了基于MSP430单片机的水压场自动测量系统的设计方案和实现方法并进行了实际测量.解决了自动测量系统中的低噪声、低功耗、高分辨率、大容量存储等关键技术.实验结果表明:该系统具有自动运行、电池供电、记录时间长等特点.适于高海况条件下的海浪水压场的测量.     

具有热阻、热漏和内不可逆性的联合卡诺热机生态学优化

用有限时间热力学的方法分析具有热阻、热漏、内不可逆性的定常流联合卡诺型热机循环.导出了在傅立叶导热定律下联合循环功率、效率和生态学指标的性能,并进行优化;得到功率、效率和生态学指标之间的优化关系,并由数值计算分析了功率、效率和循环熵产率之间的关系.所得的结果表明,最大生态学指标下的效率十分接近于联合循环可以达到的最大效率;相应的熵产率也要低于以输出功率为优化目标时的熵产率.     

基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的剩余使用寿命预测框架

毋庸置疑,剩余使用寿命预测对于设备的健康管理越来越重要。近年来粒子滤波方法被越来越多地应用到设备寿命预测技术当中,这是因为粒子滤波方法能更好的解决非线性非高斯系统滤波问题,而且能够获得不确定度信息。但该方法的预测性能却过度依赖于预测模型,并且对于模型参数的初始分布也比较敏感,这在一定程度上限制了粒子滤波预测方法的进一步发展。本文针对基本粒子滤波预测方法的不足,提出了一种基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的通用预测框架,以历史观测数据的退化速率统计规律作为指导来跟踪目标数据的退化速率,实现对粒子滤波预测方法的简化。并将该方法用于轴承和锂离子电池的剩余使用寿命预测,验证了方法的有效性。     

NONPROLIFERATION POLICY CROSSROADS:

On October 1, 2008, Congress enacted a proposal that originated with President George W. Bush in 2005 to approve an unprecedented nuclear trade pact with India by removing a central pillar of US nonproliferation policy. Despite the numerous political challenges confronting the Bush administration, the initiative won strong bipartisan support, including votes from Democratic Senators Joseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. The four-year struggle to pass the controversial US-India nuclear trade agreement offers an exceptionally valuable case study. It demonstrates a classic tradeoff between the pursuit of broad multilateral goals such as nuclear nonproliferation and advancement of a specific bilateral relationship. It reveals enduring fault lines in executive branch relations with Congress. It vividly portrays challenges confronting proponents of a strong nonproliferation regime. This article is based on an analysis of the negotiating record and congressional deliberations, including interviews with key participants. It assesses the lessons learned and focuses on three principal questions: how did the agreement seek to advance US national security interests?; what were the essential elements of the prolonged state-of-the-art lobbying campaign to win approval from skeptics in Congress?; and what are the agreement's actual benefits—and costs—to future US nonproliferation efforts?