不确定信息下反导拦截效果评估

针对不确定信息下反导拦截效果评估过程中指标信息和权重信息都不确定,传统评估方法很难加以解决的问题,使用区间数和随机多属性可接受性分析(SMAA)相结合的方法对反导拦截效果进行了评估。首先,根据来袭弹道导弹目标的毁伤程度划分了拦截效果等级;然后,针对观测信息的不确定性,采用区间数和隶属函数对特征指标进行了表示;在此基础上,通过引入SMAA方法,计算和比较拦截效果为各拦截等级的可接受性指标和信任因子,对不确定信息下反导拦截效果进行了评估。实例计算结果表明所介绍的不确定信息下反导拦截效果评估方法是可行的。     

Statistical analysis for masked system life data from Marshall‐Olkin Weibull distribution under progressive hybrid censoring

This paper considers the statistical analysis of masked data in a series system, where the components are assumed to have Marshall‐Olkin Weibull distribution. Based on type‐I progressive hybrid censored and masked data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimates, approximate confidence intervals, and bootstrap confidence intervals of unknown parameters. As the maximum likelihood estimate does not exist for small sample size, Gibbs sampling is used to obtain the Bayesian estimates and Monte Carlo method is employed to construct the credible intervals based on Jefferys prior with partial information. Numerical simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed methods and one data set is analyzed.     

改进IAHP-CIM模型的雷达组网探测能力评估方法

针对雷达组网探测能力的评估问题,采用鱼骨图法对影响雷达组网探测能力的多种因素进行梳理,得到结构层次清晰的指标评价体系。采用改进的区间层次分析—控制区间和记忆模型对该指标体系进行评估,具体方法是:运用区间层次分析法构造区间判断矩阵;利用蛙跳算法求解区间判断矩阵中满足最小一致性的确定性矩阵;利用控制区间和记忆模型来确定各指标的风险概率,实现指标体系的评估。以具体的案例为对象进行仿真实验,结果表明,所提评估方法有效,评估结论相对客观、可信,对雷达组网探测能力评估具有一定参考价值,从而为雷达组网的优化部署奠定良好基础。     

反潜机采用阿基米德螺旋线搜潜问题研究

反潜机是重要的反潜力量,根据反潜机搜潜情况,建立了反潜飞机采用阿基米德螺旋线样式搜潜的数学模型和目标运动模型,讨论了螺旋线采用的三种轨迹间隔,通过仿真验证,确立了反潜机搜潜最优轨迹间隔,以达到提高发现目标潜艇概率、优化反潜效能的目的,为反潜飞机采用阿基米德巡逻线搜潜样式搜潜时提供战术参考。     

对成像雷达的脉冲分段排序转发干扰

多假目标图像欺骗是目前宽带雷达干扰的难点。针对宽带雷达中常用的线性调频(Linear Frequency Modulated,LFM)信号,提出一种脉冲分段排序转发干扰方法。结合散射波信号模型,推导了合成干扰信号二维成像输出形式,讨论了假目标图像个数、分辨率与分段数以及转发次序之间的关系,并进行了仿真实验。结果表明该干扰方法可较便捷地产生多个沿距离向分布的假目标图像。结果对于成像雷达图像欺骗干扰具有理论指导意义。     

远程火炮密集度试验多组数据的处理方法

远程火炮密集度试验需要进行多次射击,同一试验条件下的多组数据通常认为来源于同一分布,但却未见于证明。利用统计检验方法,给出了对试验数据方差齐性及均值相等性的检验方法,并在多组试验数据一致性的基础上给出了试验数据均值、方差的无偏估计,同时在既定置信度下给出了其置信区间,为远程火炮精度检测提供了工具。     

基于脉冲控制的末修弹飞行稳定性研究

脉冲力的瞬间作用会引起攻角和侧滑角的急剧变化,对末修弹飞行稳定性产生较大的影响.以线性化运动微分方程组为数学解析手段,对末修弹脉冲作用稳定性进行深入分析研究.数值仿真表明,采用小扰动法分析弹丸脉冲控制弹丸飞行稳定性是可行的.     

New results on rendezvous search on the interval

In a rendezvous search problem, two players are placed in a network and must try to meet each other in the least possible expected time. We look at rendezvous search on a discrete interval in which the players are initially placed using independent draws (usually assumed to be from the same distribution). Some optimal solutions are known if this distribution is uniform, and also for certain other special types of distribution. In this article, we present two new results. First, we characterize the complete set of solutions for the uniform case, showing that all optimal strategies must have two specific properties (namely, of being swept and strictly geodesic). Second, we relate search strategies on the interval to proper binary trees, and use this correspondence to derive a recurrence relation for solutions to the symmetric rendezvous problem for any initial distribution. This relation allows us to solve any such problem computationally by dynamic programming. Finally, some ideas for future research are discussed. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 454–467, 2013     

Inequality‐based reliability estimates for complex systems

Full‐system testing for large‐scale systems is often infeasible or very costly. Thus, when estimating system reliability, it is desirable to use a method that uses subsystem tests, which are often less expensive and more feasible. This article presents a method for bounding full‐system reliabilities based on subsystem tests and, if available, full‐system tests. The method does not require that subsystems be independent. It accounts for dependencies through the use of certain probability inequalities. The inequalities provide the basis for valid reliability calculations while not requiring independent subsystems or full‐system tests. The inequalities allow for test information on pairwise subsystem failure modes to be incorporated, thereby improving the bound on system reliability. We illustrate some of the properties of the estimates via an example application. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

战时装备保障阵地选址不确定决策方法

针对战时选址属性信息为区间数的情形,提出了一种基于模糊偏序关系的装备保障阵地选址决策方法.首先,建立战时装备保障点选址的评估值模型,并对其进行预处理;然后建立了模糊偏序关系模型,将混合型评估值模型转化为评估关系模型,得到各备选点之间的偏序关系;最后,对偏序关系进行集结,得到全序关系,从而获取方案的优劣排序.这为战时装备保障阵地选址提供了一种新的有效途径.