An integrated electric power supply chain and fuel market network framework: Theoretical modeling with empirical analysis for New England

In this article, we develop a novel electric power supply chain network model with fuel supply markets that captures both the economic network transactions in energy supply markets and the physical network transmission constraints in the electric power network. The theoretical derivation and analysis are done using the theory of variational inequalities. We then apply the model to a specific case, the New England electric power supply chain, consisting of six states, five fuel types, 82 power generators, with a total of 573 generating units, and 10 demand market regions. The empirical case study demonstrates that the regional electric power prices simulated by our model match the actual electricity prices in New England very well. We also compute the electric power prices and the spark spread, an important measure of the power plant profitability, under natural gas and oil price variations. The empirical examples illustrate that in New England, the market/grid‐level fuel competition has become the major factor that affects the influence of the oil price on the natural gas price. Finally, we utilize the model to quantitatively investigate how changes in the demand for electricity influence the electric power and the fuel markets from a regional perspective. The theoretical model can be applied to other regions and multiple electricity markets under deregulation to quantify the interactions in electric power/energy supply chains and their effects on flows and prices. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

基于CAS/Agent的装甲装备战损模型仿真

针对传统战损模型研究方法存在的不足,提出用人工神经网络的学习能力模拟Agent的适应性。借鉴CAS(Complex Adaptive System)理论的建模思想,引入ERA(Environment-Rules-Agents)方案建立战损模型。在外部干预Agent作用下,运用BP算法并结合CT(Cross Target)算法对红蓝双方对抗战斗进行仿真,模拟动态战场环境下装备损伤的演化过程。该模型可更好地理解装备损伤的动力学特性。     

基于EMD、遗传算法及神经网络的柴油机故障诊断

研究了将经验模式分解(Empirical Mode Decom position,EMD)、遗传算法及BP神经网络相结合对柴油机振动信号进行故障诊断的方法。首先运用经验模式分解方法对柴油机缸盖表面振动信号进行分解并提取特征参数;然后利用遗传算法对得到的特征参数进行选择,找到对于故障诊断最为敏感的参数;最后建立了BP神经网络模型对柴油机典型故障进行诊断。通过对某型柴油机的验证,表明该方法能够准确识别柴油机供油系统的典型故障。     

谈高校校报思想政治教育的作用

高校校报既是高校思想宣传工作的重要阵地,又是高校进行思想政治教育的重要平台。深入分析、挖掘校报的思想政治教育作用,对校报提高办报质量,有针对性地为高校发展提供舆论支持具有深远意义。只有充分发挥高校校报在思想政治工作中的作用,才能稳固校园主流媒体的地位。     

线性相依风险下的超额赔款再保险

本文从保险人的角度研究对两类相依风险的超额赔款再保险的最优自留额问题。考虑指数效用函数的货币期望效用原则和自留累积损失的调节系数原则,得到关于这两个问题的最优解的方程。     

面向数据库服务的网络流量模拟方法

针对离线网络安全实验环境缺少真实网络环境的背景流量,以及实验环境中数据库服务器缺少资源争用的现象,提出了面向数据库服务器的网络流量模拟方法,设计了用户访问数据库的操作模型,实现了面向数据库服务且独立于其客户端的网络流量模拟系统。     

知识图谱的预警探测体系探测效能贝叶斯评估方法

战争中,预警探测体系作为典型的复杂系统,其探测效能发挥情况的有效评估一直是亟需人们研究解决的重要现实问题。突破了传统效能评估方法的局限,在分析了知识图谱技术、贝叶斯评估方法基本原理的基础上,提出了基于两者综合运用的预警探测体系探测效能评估新方法,利用专家知识和实验数据构建知识图谱,并进一步使用贝叶斯网络方法实施知识推理,从而实现了体系探测效能评估。通过构建具体作战场景,验证了所提方法的有效性,并基于推演数据分析了所提方法的评估情况。     

软件定义的航天器测试网络技术

航天器测试网络是航天器自动化测试运行、测试数据监测分析等测试业务运行的信息通道,它的性能将极大影响航天器试验测试效率与试验数据的应用效能。针对传统航天器测试网络存在的物理独立部署、人工迁移、存在数据孤岛以及无法高效交换共享的不足,本文参考借鉴软件定义网络技术,设计了基于虚拟局域网及软件定义网络技术的软件定义航天器测试网络。该测试网络技术具备良好的软件重构、区域隔离、测试信息汇聚共享性能,能够通过软件重构,自动化迁移部署航天器测试网络;通过网络区域逻辑隔离,确保各航天器测试指令运行区域受控、安全;通过全局测试数据汇聚实现多航天器测试数据的交换共享,从而有效解决了航天器测试网络快速部署、测试指令安全运行与测试数据交换共享的问题,有力推动了装备试验数据工程的建设工作。     

Weapon effectiveness and the shapes of damage functions

This paper provides a review of methods of assessing a fragmentation weapon's effectiveness against a point target or an area target with keeping the focus on the necessity of using the Carleton damage function with the correct shape factor.First,cookie-cutter damage functions are redefined to preserve the shape factor of and to have the same lethal area as the corresponding Carleton damage function.Then,closed-form solutions of the effectiveness methods are obtained by using those cookie-cutter damage functions and the Carleton damage function.Finally,the closed-form solutions are applied to calculate the probability of damaging a point target and the expected fractional damage to an area target for several attack scenarios by using cookie-cutter damage functions and the Carleton damage functions with different shape factors.The comparison of the calculation results shows that using cookie-cutter damage functions or the Carleton damage function with a wrong shape factor results in quite signifi-cant differences from using the original Carleton damage function with a correct shape factor when weapon's delivery error deviations are less than or comparable to the lengths of the lethal area and the aim point is far from a target.The effectiveness methods improved in this paper will be useful for mission planning utilizing the precision-guided munitions in circumstances where the collateral damage should be reduced.     

基于大数据分析的网络管理智能化

军事通信网综合管理系统中,各专业网络运行情况的主要数据都可汇总到综合网管数据库中。这些网管数据中隐含了网络运行的几乎全部信息,但即使是最有经验的网络管理专家面对这些繁杂的数据也只能望洋兴叹。面对大数据的智能分析技术则有可能实现网络运行态势的高度可视化,充分理解和详细把握全网运行状态,像知识、经验、联想丰富的专家一样不知疲倦地对网络运行状况进行全面细致地分析,从海量的网管数据中发现网络故障的蛛丝马迹,发现隐含的问题,预知网络变化。论文介绍了利用大数据分析技术实现网络管理智能化的现实目标,基于性能的网络异常预测预报、基于性能和事件的故障分析诊断、网络运行知识的挖掘利用等方面的功能和技术途径。