外军两栖车辆水上推进装置的分类及评价

给出了当今外军典型两栖车辆的主要性能指标,对水上推进装置进行了分类,定性分析了各种水上推进装置的工作原理及主要影响因素,给出了FT-C牵引车模型的试验结果.通过对水上推进装置产生的推力和两栖车辆水上行驶的阻力分析,得出了有价值的结论.最后根据实际需求对履带划水式、喷水式、螺旋桨式3种水上推进装置进行了综合评估,其结论对新型两栖车辆的论证、研究具有借鉴作用.     

目标区域局部特征和局部图像质量相结合的激光干扰效果评估

为客观描述光电成像系统激光干扰效果,提出目标区域局部特征和图像质量相结合的干扰效果评估算法。图像的局部特征用特征点描述,图像质量用结构相似度指数描述。该算法利用特征点匹配算法确定场景图像中的目标区域,计算干扰前后目标区域内特征点数量的变化、干扰后目标区域内未饱和面积所占的比重以及目标区域内图像的结构相似度指数,并将上述各参数相乘得到最终的评价指标。利用该方法对典型激光干扰图像进行评估,结果表明:在不同入射功率和不同光斑位置情况下,所提评估指标比单独使用结构相似度的评估指标具有更大的取值范围和更明显的非线性变化特征。这说明:该指标能够反映光电成像系统激光干扰过程的丰富细节,更加适合激光干扰效果的评估。     

Constant risk aversion in stochastic contests with exponential completion times

This article analyzes a class of stochastic contests among multiple players under risk‐averse exponential utility. In these contests, players compete over the completion of a task by simultaneously deciding on their investment, which determines how fast they complete the task. The completion time of the task for each player is assumed to be an exponentially distributed random variable with rate linear in the player's investment and the completion times of different players are assumed to be stochastically independent. The player that completes the task first earns a prize whereas the remaining players earn nothing. The article establishes a one‐to‐one correspondence between the Nash equilibrium of this contest with respect to risk‐averse exponential utilities and the nonnegative solution of a nonlinear equation. Using the properties of the latter, it proves the existence and the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, and provides an efficient method to compute it. It exploits the resulting representation of the equilibrium investments to determine the effects of risk aversion and the differences between the outcome of the Nash equilibrium and that of a centralized version.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:4–14, 2019     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

基于平均互信息熵的复杂系统可靠性评定方法

可靠性评定是定量评估系统可靠性水平的重要途径,是对其可靠性进行定量控制的必要手段.某些复杂系统由于研制时间和经费的限制,现场试验样本量极其有限,依赖传统的基于大样本的数理统计方法将难以获得客观结论,因此其可靠性评定一直是工程实践中的技术难题.针对复杂系统可靠性评估和寿命预测时现场样本量不足的问题,提出了一种基于多源信息融合的可靠性评定方法.该方法利用平均互信息熵来度量多源验前信息对可靠性评定不确定性减少所起的作用,以此为依据确定多源信息融合权重,并通过融合验前分布进行复杂系统的可靠性评定,从而减少了评定过程中的主观性,增强了评定结论的可信性.最后通过仿真实例验证了方法的有效性.     

防空导弹性能与效能模糊综合评定模型

提出了将武器系统自身固有的潜在效能与使命效能相结合的系统效能模糊综合评估方法,并建立了相应的防空导弹武器系统反TBM效能模糊综合评估模型;同时也提出了计算效能评估结果可信度高低的简捷的综合分析评价方法与数学模型;最后以方案A,B,C为评估对象进行了实例计算,并分析了评估结果,得出了结论。     

军事设施建设项目环境影响评价有关问题分析及建议

根据《中国人民解放军环境保护条例》,军事设施建设项目应进行环境影响评价。由于军事项目建设内容高度机密、国防需要迫切、建设时间紧迫等,再加上一些从事军事设施项目建设的管理人员对环境影响评价的理解还存在某些偏差,使许多军事设施建设项目未进行环境影响评价,影响了我军的环境保护工作。简要介绍了军事设施的范围及军事设施建设项目的环境影响评价概况,结合军事设施建设项目环境影响评价中出现的一些问题,提出了进行军事设施建设项目环境影响评价工作的几点建议。     

Capacity investment decisions under risk aversion

This article studies the optimal capacity investment problem for a risk‐averse decision maker. The capacity can be either purchased or salvaged, whereas both involve a fixed cost and a proportional cost/revenue. We incorporate risk preference and use a consumption model to capture the decision maker's risk sensitivity in a multiperiod capacity investment model. We show that, in each period, capacity and consumption decisions can be separately determined. In addition, we characterize the structure of the optimal capacity strategy. When the parameters are stationary, we present certain conditions under which the optimal capacity strategy could be easily characterized by a static two‐sided (s, S) policy, whereby, the capacity is determined only at the beginning of period one, and held constant during the entire planning horizon. It is purchased up to B when the initial capacity is below b, salvaged down to Σ when it is above σ, and remains constant otherwise. Numerical tests are presented to investigate the impact of demand volatility on the optimal capacity strategy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 218–235, 2016     

一种无人机侦察能力评估模型

在无人机执行侦察任务的过程中,需要对携带传感器的无人机能力进行评估。对此,从生存性能、侦察性能和稳定性能等3个方面建立无人机侦察能力的评估指标体系,并提出一种基于熵权的组合赋权方法,将主客观信息进行融合,确定各项指标的权重,建立无人机侦察能力的评估模型。最后通过实例对该模型进行了验证。     

停产雷达装备维修器材持续保障风险评估方法

针对停产雷达装备维修器材持续保障过程中存在的筹措断供问题,提出基于改进风险矩阵法和层次分析法相结合的风险评估方法。首先建立保障风险评估指标体系,然后采用改进的风险矩阵进行风险评估,利用采用层次分析法解决存在递归层次时风险因素的评估问题,最后得出装备器材持续保障风险的综合量化值,为提出保障风险规避策略提供数据依据。利用某型雷达器材保障风险评估案例进行数据分析,验证了该方法的有效性。