Consumer drone evolutions: trends,spaces, temporalities,threats

ABSTRACT

While the drone has become synonymous with the War on Terror, the asymmetric iconography of the battlefield is shifting. Commercially available off-the-shelf (COTS) drones are increasingly prevalent features of global battlefields, employed by non-state actors in both visualising such spaces, and the directing and inflicting of harm. As such usage increases, so too do concerns around their evolving adoption, adaptation, and potential portability into homeland spheres. While cognizant of the range of positive drone applications, it is asserted that drones nonetheless remain simultaneously bound to an inverse potential for exploitation. In examining drone risk, this article approaches the consumer drone through a series of sites and spaces through which it is technically and socially constructed. Reflecting upon industry innovation, community-driven experimentation, and evolving airspace – it calls for greater attention to the drone’s malleability, arguing that understandings of COTS drones must remain attentive to both drone potential and potential drone threat.     

基于三角白化权函数的武器装备研制项目技术风险评估

针对武器装备研制项目技术风险评估问题,利用灰色理论中的三角白化权函数,建立了武器装备研制项目技术风险评估模型。最后,结合实例验证说明了该模型的可行性,在同类问题中亦具有一定的参考使用价值。     

养老院的火灾危险性及预防对策

随着养老院的数量不断增加，其火灾的起数也随之上升，造成人员伤亡的火灾事故也时有发生。分析了养老院的火灾危险性及火灾危害性，并针对性地给出了养老院消防安全管理要点和养老院建筑要遵守的设计防火要点。     

基于模糊层次分析法的面粉厂粉尘爆炸危险性评价

根据面粉企业生产特点，应用层次分析法的原理，建立了粉尘爆炸危险性评价的层次结构模型及判断矩阵，从而确定影响粉尘爆炸事故发生的相关因素重要性排序；然后再运用模糊综合评价方法对粉尘爆炸危险性进行评价，最终确定面粉厂的安全状况。实例研究表明：该方法具有较好的可操作性，对预防面粉企业发生粉尘爆炸事故提供了一种有益的思路。     

建筑火灾风险模糊综合评估方法研究

按照建筑火灾发展的不同时间阶段，建立了四阶段的模糊综合评估模型，用来评估财产损失和建筑损坏情况。根据专家意见和笔者研究，确定了建筑火灾风险评估指标体系，使用层次分析法得到各指标权重，并对某大厦进行了火灾风险评估。研究结果表明该方法具有较好的应用价值，实现了用模糊综合评估方法对建筑火灾分阶段的风险评估，反映出火灾发展各时间阶段的情况和影响火灾风险的主要因素。     

水电站消防设计常见问题及对策探讨

结合两个水电站的具体建筑工程审查，在分析水电站的火灾危险性特点的基础上，总结了水电站消防设计常见问题，讨论了水电站防火分区、安全疏散、火灾自动报警系统、自动喷水灭火系统和排烟系统的消防设计。对解决水电站消防设计中存在的问题具有一定的指导意义。     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

圣哥达隧道火灾疏散案例剖析及启示

公路隧道作为公路的衍生物，是重要的交通设施，由于特殊的空间局限，随着交通事业的发展，交通密度的增长．行车速度的提高，各种栽有可燃物质的车辆通过隧道数量和频率的增长，使得隧道火灾发生的频率呈上升趋势，一旦发生火灾，扑救和疏散都十分困难。圣哥达隧道火灾将会给我们一些疏散及安全方面的启示。     

Constant risk aversion in stochastic contests with exponential completion times

This article analyzes a class of stochastic contests among multiple players under risk‐averse exponential utility. In these contests, players compete over the completion of a task by simultaneously deciding on their investment, which determines how fast they complete the task. The completion time of the task for each player is assumed to be an exponentially distributed random variable with rate linear in the player's investment and the completion times of different players are assumed to be stochastically independent. The player that completes the task first earns a prize whereas the remaining players earn nothing. The article establishes a one‐to‐one correspondence between the Nash equilibrium of this contest with respect to risk‐averse exponential utilities and the nonnegative solution of a nonlinear equation. Using the properties of the latter, it proves the existence and the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, and provides an efficient method to compute it. It exploits the resulting representation of the equilibrium investments to determine the effects of risk aversion and the differences between the outcome of the Nash equilibrium and that of a centralized version.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:4–14, 2019     

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