导弹主/被动雷达复合制导中的目标状态估计

针对主 /被动雷达复合制导中的被动雷达只有角度信息而无径向距离信息 ,当被动雷达与目标间的相对加速度为零时 ,目标的距离状态是不可观的特点 ,提出了一种旨在获取被动雷达径向距离信息的方法 ,从而可利用主动雷达和被动雷达的角度和径向距离信息进行数据融合。仿真结果表明 ,利用此方法可得到较好的数据融合效果。     

生气贯注 气韵天成——艺术创作新论：气化论

气化论哲学认为,天地万物都处于一气运化之中,是气之阴阳交感化生的结果。艺术创作过程,是宇宙之气在主体内部积淀,与主体之气相应同,化生为作品之气的过程。具体说来,包括这样几个阶段：艺术创作的契机：气感;创作前审关心境：虚静与养气;神与物游,以天合天;生气贯注,气韵天成。     

海洋移动目标多模型运动预测方法

分析海洋移动目标的运动特征,提出了预测前插值的灰色预测方法,改进了航迹变更预测和潜在区域预测模型。通过集成匀速运动预测、航迹变更预测、基于航迹的预测和潜在区域预测,提出多模型运动预测方法及其模型参数配置依据,根据滑动时间窗口中的观测数据与预测值的统计比较,评价不同预测方法的近期预测效果,决策下阶段适宜选择的预测方法。仿真实验表明多模型运动预测比使用单一运动预测方法降低预测风险,提高了预测精度。     

基于依赖矩阵的Web服务组合故障诊断

为了保证指挥信息系统在动态环境下能够提供持续可靠的组合服务,提出一种利用依赖矩阵对Web服务组合故障原因进行诊断的模型,对依赖矩阵的建立进行了详细说明。然后,基于构造的依赖矩阵,提出改进的贪心算法对失效情况进行探测,并设计了基于二分查找的故障定位算法。实验模拟表明,提出的模型能够利用少量探测就能监测整个服务组合流程的运行情况,并定位找到错误源。     

Locating a target from directional data

Statistical estimation plays an important role in locating a target in space, a task that has important applications in many areas. However, theoretical measures on the quality of various estimators reported in the literature have been difficult to obtain because of mathematical complications. As a result, choice of estimator in practice has been largely arbitrary. In this paper, we present a systematic study on major target estimators reported in the literature. Focus is on comparisons between the traditional angle method, the line method, and a recently developed line-to-point transformation method. Insights gained from the study directly lead to the development of a novel two-stage angle method that not only produces highly accurate target estimation among all known estimators but is also computationally efficient. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 353–364, 1998     

消防技术服务中介机构的发展与管理

分析了当前消防技术服务中介机构存在的问题与发展制约因素,提出了发展与规范消防技术服务中介机构的对策。     

混合排队规则的战术装备维修保障系统分析

首先将战术装备维修保障过程描述为M/M/c/k混合规则的排队过程,其损坏装备到达服从相互独立的泊松分布,维修时间服从相互独立的指数分布。同时考虑系统的到达率和维修率随系统中装备数量的变化,重要战损装备等待维修时的不耐烦性以及重要装备对一般装备的强占性优先权情况,结合战术装备维修保障系统的结构和规模,建立战术装备维修保障M/M/3/12排队模型。列出模型的平衡方程,采用矩阵的分析方法得到重要装备和一般装备的稳态分布表达式,并以队长为指标进行了系统性能的计算。     

混合对策无人战机空战决策

在混合对策理论的基础上,将空战过程看作是由一系列离散的状态组成的离散事件动态系统,建立了空战过程的离散状态子模型,利用空战态势指数和战机空战能力指数构造了战术评估函数,以完成对战术动作的筛选工作,并结合3DOF质点模型设计了机动指令生成器,实现对无人机运动状态的控制,并在Matlab环境下对机动实例进行了仿真.     

Call center arrival modeling: A Bayesian state‐space approach

In this article, we introduce three discrete time Bayesian state‐space models with Poisson measurements, each aiming to address different issues in call center arrival modeling. We present the properties of the models and develop their Bayesian inference. In so doing, we provide sequential updating and smoothing for call arrival rates and discuss how the models can be used for intra‐day, inter‐day, and inter‐week forecasts. We illustrate the implementation of the models by using actual arrival data from a US commercial bank's call center and provide forecasting comparisons. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 28–42, 2011     

Exponential size neighborhoods for makespan minimization scheduling

We investigate the quality of local search heuristics for the scheduling problem of minimizing the makespan on identical parallel machines. We study exponential size neighborhoods (whose size grows exponentially with the input length) that can be searched in polynomial time, and we derive worst‐case approximation guarantees for the local optima of such neighborhoods. The so‐called split neighborhood splits a feasible schedule into two layers, and then recombines the two layers by finding a perfect matching. We show that the makespan of every local optimum for split is at most a factor of 2 away from the globally optimal makespan. We then combine the split neighborhood with two neighborhoods from the literature. The combination of split with the jump neighborhood only marginally improves the approximation guarantee, whereas the combination with the lexicographic‐jump neighborhood decreases the approximation guarantee from 2 to 3/2. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011