公路隧道火灾探测器选型试验研究

为了更好地指导公路隧道的设计单位、建设单位科学合理地选用火灾探测器,组织开展了隧道实体点火试验,结合实际设计了明火、污染、移动火盆和烟火4组试验,对3种火灾探测器的报警时间和报警准确性进行了试验研究,并对试验结果进行了分析,认为火焰探测器适于在山西省公路特长隧道和长隧道中使用。     

Changing the paradigm: Simulation,now a method of first resort

Decades ago, simulation was famously characterized as a “method of last resort,” to which analysts should turn only “when all else fails.” In those intervening decades, the technologies supporting simulation—computing hardware, simulation‐modeling paradigms, simulation software, design‐and‐analysis methods—have all advanced dramatically. We offer an updated view that simulation is now a very appealing option for modeling and analysis. When applied properly, simulation can provide fully as much insight, with as much precision as desired, as can exact analytical methods that are based on more restrictive assumptions. The fundamental advantage of simulation is that it can tolerate far less restrictive modeling assumptions, leading to an underlying model that is more reflective of reality and thus more valid, leading to better decisions. Published 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 293–303, 2015     

多因素空间近距离巡查效能评估建模

空间近距离巡查可以开展对目标的近距离观测和监视,用于识别目标类型和工作状态等,对在轨服务、博弈对抗等军民领域均具有重要意义。分析了空间巡查任务的一般形式,并以近距离巡查最常用的光学观测为对象,构建了巡查观测的约束模型和相对距离因素评估模型、有效观测时间评估模型、目标观测角度评估模型等多因素的观测任务效能评估模型,解决了面向巡查任务全过程的综合效能评估问题,可以更好地支撑基于评估结果的巡查策略设计和巡查轨迹优化等。基于数值算例分析和半实物仿真实验,对提出的评估模型进行了仿真验证,结果显示实际观测效果和模型评估结果一致。     

Shock-induced reaction behaviors of functionally graded reactive material

In this paper, the ballistic impact experiments, including impact test chamber and impact double-spaced plates, were conducted to study the reaction behaviors of a novel functionally graded reactive material (FGRM), which was composed of polytetrafluoroethylene/aluminum (PTFE/Al) and PTFE/Al/bismuth trioxide (Bi₂O₃). The experiments showed that the impact direction of the FGRM had a significant effect on the reaction. With the same impact velocity, when the first impact material was PTFE/Al/Bi₂O₃, compared with first impact material PTFE/Al, the FGRM induced higher overpressure in the test chamber and larger damaged area of double-spaced plates. The theoretical model, which considered the shock wave generation and propagation, the effect of the shock wave on reaction efficiency, and penetration behaviors, was developed to analyze the reaction behaviors of the FGRM. The model predicted first impact material of the FGRM with a higher shock impedance was conducive to the reaction of reactive materials. The conclusion of this study provides significant information about the design and application of reactive materials.     

印度外空技术试验受到的压制、影响及其对策研究

印度开展外空技术试验遭受了来自国际舆论的谴责、强国遏制与外空法约束等多个方面的压力.当今世界航天大国都在竞相开展外空技术试验.当各国面临相似的问题时,应尽快开展研究,找出如何以合理的理由、灵活的手段开展试验,同时集结优势力量开展国际合作.本文深入分析主要航天国家对印度开展外空试验的主要压制手段,以此剖析印度外空技术试验...     

Efficient budget allocation strategies for elementary effects method in stochastic simulation

This paper focuses on extending the Morris' elementary effects method (MM) for sensitivity analysis/factor screening originated in the context of deterministic computer experiments to the stochastic simulation setting. Given a fixed simulation budget to expend, the main objective is to provide efficient and accurate estimates of main and interaction (or nonlinear) effects coined by the standard MM for characterizing the importance of each factor, despite the impact of simulation errors. Taking into account both the factor/input sampling uncertainty rooted in MM and the random errors inherent in a stochastic simulation, we develop efficient budget allocation strategies for implementing MM in this new context. Under each strategy proposed, we derive its corresponding optimal budget partition and optimal budget allocation rules. Numerical results corroborate the practical effectiveness of the proposed budget allocation strategies.     

可移植人体外耳支架的3D打印关键技术

探索使用医用硅胶制作患者个体外耳支架的关键技术,使用计算机断层扫描和逆向建模技术得到对应患者个体的外耳数字模型,利用3D打印技术制造人体外耳支架模具,并使用医用硅胶MED 4735完成人体外耳支架的制作成型。动物实验验证了其生物相容性,证明了方法的可行性。通过该技术制作的硅胶人体外耳支架可以高度模仿患者特定的耳廓形状,支架精度高、制造周期短、无生物排异,可为替代肋软骨雕刻人体外耳支架进行耳廓缺损治疗提供依据。     

基于计算实验的C4ISR能力分析系统架构研究*

面向C4ISR能力分析需求,借鉴计算实验的思想,从不确定性因子分析、想定空间规划、仿真实验、数据分析和不确定性因子调整五个活动论述了基于计算实验的C4ISR能力分析运行框架。以网络中心战为背景,以C4ISR体系对抗为中心,构建了一种基于计算实验的C4ISR能力分析系统架构,涉及高性能计算环境,军事想定系统、实验规划系统、可重用建模环境、仿真联邦和评估系统等六部分,并对各部分功能和系统总体流程进行了分析。     

如何在防化科研试验中加强安全保密工作

针对我院科研试验的特点和要求,分析了安全保密工作的艰巨性和重要性,明确了安全保密总要求,提出了把安全保密工作落到实处的具体措施。     

Designing rewards-based crowdfunding campaigns for strategic (but distracted) contributors

In rewards-based crowdfunding, entrepreneurs solicit donations from a large number of individual contributors. If total donations exceed a prespecified funding target, the entrepreneur distributes nonmonetary rewards to contributors; otherwise, their donations are refunded. We study how to design such campaigns when contributors choose not just whether to contribute, but also when to contribute. We show that strategic contribution behavior—when contributors intentionally delay until campaign success is likely—can arise from the combination of nonrefundable (potentially very small) hassle costs and the risk of campaign failure, and can explain pledging patterns commonly observed in crowdfunding. Furthermore, such delays do not hurt the entrepreneur if contributors are perfectly rational, but they do if contributors are distracted, that is, if they might fail to return to the campaign after an intentional delay. To mitigate this, we find that an entrepreneur can use a simple menu of rewards with a fixed number of units sold at a low price, and an unlimited number sold at a higher price; this segments contributors over time based on the information they observe upon arrival. We show that, despite its simplicity, such a menu performs well compared to a theoretically optimal menu consisting of an infinite number of different rewards and price levels under many conditions.