Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

要地反巡探测系统漏警率的建模及评估

要地反巡探测系统的设计需根据作战指标确定系统能力,此问题涉及到系统的建模及效能评估。应用随机服务理论,对要地反巡探测系统的搜索过程建立了M/D/C模型。根据M/D/C模型计算公式,以AR320地基监视雷达、地空联合探测的搜索过程为算例,验证了搜索模型的正确性,给出了目标漏警率、搜索波束数量与目标出动强度的关系。此模型扩展性良好,研究结果可对系统的设计和评价有所借鉴。     

基于GA-SVDD的轴承性能退化评估

为解决因机械设备轴承损伤导致机械故障而无法正常工作的问题,提出了一种基于GA-SVDD的轴承性能退化定量评估方法。该方法采用遗传算法优化选择特征参量,并建立SVDD超球体模型,运用SVDD距离评估轴承的性能退化程度。实验分析表明：该方法能够有效地对轴承性能退化过程的细节进行描述,实现对待测样本退化程度的定量评估。     

基于OPN的军事信息服务组合模型构建方法

介绍了军事信息服务的基本含义,给出了基于对象Petri网的军事信息服务组合模型的形式化描述方法,构建了军事信息服务组合模型的基本结构,并针对一个具体的防空反导作应用案例,使用国防科大对象Petri网建模仿真环境工具开发了相应的军事信息服务组合模型,并对组合服务进行了简要分析。实践表明,该方法能满足军事信息服务组合模型构建的需要,并具有良好的服务建模与仿真分析能力。     

Waiting time analysis for a queueing system with time‐limited service and exponential timer

We consider a single‐queue with exhaustive or gated time‐limited services and server vacations, in which the length of each service period at the queue is controlled by a timer, i.e., the server serves customers until the timer expires or the queue becomes empty, whichever occurs first, and then takes vacations. The customer whose service is interrupted due to the timer expiration may be attended according to nonpreemptive or preemptive service disciplines. For the M/G/1 exhaustive/gated time‐limited service queueing system with an exponential timer and four typical preemptive/nonpreemptive service disciplines, we derive the Laplace—Stieltjes transforms and the moment formulas for waiting times and sojourn times through a unified approach, and provide some new results for these time‐limited service disciplines. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 638–651, 2001.     

面向Agent的海军军械勤务辅助支持系统的逻辑构建

结合分布式人工智能中的Agent技术和军械勤务辅助支持系统的特点 ,研究了面向A gent的军械勤务辅助支持结构。结合该系统介绍了Agent和多Agent系统的概念 ,讨论了A gent的通信机制     

中锰铸钢坦克履带板连接筋的喷丸强化处理

针对新研制的中锰铸钢坦克履带板装车考核中的特点,提出了对连接筋实施喷丸强化处理的预强化方案.分析了喷丸强化层的组织和硬化特性;还通过连接筋的3点弯曲疲劳试验,探讨了喷丸强化对连接筋疲劳裂纹形成的影响.研究认为,对中锰铸钢坦克履带板连接筋进行喷丸强化预处理,是提高其整体使用寿命的重要途径.     

军事概念模型知识获取过程方法和工具

军事概念模型是独立于实现的真实世界的实体、任务等作战要素的表示.军事概念模型是军事建模仿真系统开发中非常重要的一步,对于仿真的可信度具有重要的影响.从知识系统开发的观点将军事概念模型开发分成知识获取和知识工程两个阶段.探讨了军事知识获取的过程,知识结构化描述的表示方法、语言和描述过程,在此基础上开发了支持军事概念模型知识获取的工具"兵书一号",并得到了广泛的推广和应用.     

信息时代战场兵力组织的运作分析与设计

信息化战场空间、扁平化和网络化的兵力组织形式是未来网络中心战中作战部队编成的主要样式。为建立这一编成样式的设计方法和思路,以战场环境中兵力组织为例,分析了PCANS模型对信息时代组织测度的缺陷,在PCANS模型中引入信息因素描述组织的运作,并提出信息时代战场空间兵力组织设计的实质和目标以及设计方法。     

空间信息栅格体系与服务聚合技术

空间信息应用中存在的数据海量、分布异构、处理复杂、计算密集等问题制约了空间数据和信息的广泛共享和应用。空间信息栅格(SIG)以Grid和WebServices技术为核心,共享并汇集地理上分布的海量空间信息资源,实现动态整合与集成。在构建开放性SIG七层应用体系的基础上,重点研究SIG服务聚合技术,基于Petri网和图论提出了一种新的服务聚合流程模型(服务/资源网),同时构建了可扩展的服务动态选择模型(SISM),实现服务聚合过程中的动态服务选择。结合国家地质调查业务应用,通过地下水资源评价应用实例对SIG的实用性和有效性进行了验证。