基于贝叶斯模型的装备剩余寿命预测研究

为了解决武器装备日益复杂及维修工作日趋繁重的问题,运用贝叶斯模型预测装备修理后的剩余寿命,为合理安排其修理计划提供依据。替代传统的指数分布,用威布尔分布描述系统寿命特征,并运用极大似然方法和贝叶斯方法估计威布尔分布的两个未知参数,给出其置信区间。在此基础上,对先验样本和后验样本两种不同情况,分别运用贝叶斯模型预测装备修理后的剩余寿命,并给出实例。结果表明了该方法的有效性。     

三轴磁强计晃动对测量结果的影响分析及校正

三轴磁强计的主要误差有零偏误差、灵敏度误差以及三轴非正交误差。通过在三轴正交坐标体系下对传感器的三轴非正交误差进行分析,建立了传感器误差模型,分析了误差对传感器晃动所产生的影响。晃动1°产生的误差最大可达109.5 nT,晃动误差随着晃动角度的增加而增加。为控制晃动误差,通过对误差模型分析建立误差校正模型,并通过非线性曲线拟合对校正模型参数准确估计,将估计参数代入校正模型,可以实现对传感器输出校正,使其输出误差大大减小,晃动1°产生的误差范围可控制在0.03 nT以内。这表明该校正方法有效地降低了晃动对传感器输出产生的影响。     

Analysis of a machine repair problem with an unreliable server and phase type repairs and services

In this paper we study a machine repair problem in which a single unreliable server maintains N identical machines. The breakdown times of the machines are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. The server is subject to failure and the failure times are exponentially distributed. The repair times of the machine and the service times of the repairman are assumed to be of phase type. Using matrix‐analytic methods, we perform steady state analysis of this model. The time spent by a failed machine in service and the total time in the repair facility are shown to be of phase type. Several performance measures are evaluated. An optimization problem to determine the number of machines to be assigned to the server that will maximize the expected total profit per unit time is discussed. An illustrative numerical example is presented. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 462–480, 2003     

浅析小型史馆建筑内部展示造型与多媒体表现

作为现代展览展示建筑的一个发展分支，小型史馆就是一部精练的“物化”历史，表达出一个丰富而统一的信息传播展示空间。小型史馆的设计往往在有限的空间内，充分体现出观演类建筑的主要特点，其内部的展示造型设计和多媒体表现手段起到了重要的作用。主要从小型史馆建设出发，对其内部展示造型设计与多媒体表现手段进行分析与探讨，阐述了它们的设计手法及达到的视觉创意效果。     

基于复杂网络理论的C2组织网络拓扑结构研究

根据C 2组织结构的特点,基于复杂网络理论和网络中心战思想,将C 2组织中的各作战单元、指控节点等作为节点,它们之间的信息流动作为边,构建C 2组织的网络拓扑结构。经过仿真分析,推出其内部具有无标度性、小世界性等复杂网络特性,这对于进一步将复杂网络理论应用于C 2组织的研究提供了理论依据并具有积极的意义。     

A bidirectional heuristic for maximizing the net present value of large‐scale projects subject to limited resources

We consider the scheduling of large‐scale projects to maximize the project net present value given temporal and resource constraints. The net present value objective emphasizes the financial aspects of project management. Temporal constraints between the start times of activities make it possible to handle practical problem assumptions. Scarce resources are an expression of rising cost. Since optimization techniques are not expedient to solve such problems and most heuristic methods known from literature cannot deal with general temporal constraints, we propose a new bidirectional priority‐rule based method. Scheduling activities with positive cash flows as early and activities with negative cash flows as late as possible results in a method which is completed by unscheduling techniques to cope with scarce resources. In a computational experiment, we compare the well‐known serial generation scheme where all activities are scheduled as early as possible with the proposed bidirectional approach. On the basis of a comprehensive data set known from literature containing instances with up to 1002 activities, the efficiency of the new approach is demonstrated. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Weibull型产品的可靠性验证

讨论了Weibull型产品的可靠性验证问题 ,首先分析了Weibull型产品分布参数的无信息验前分布问题 ,利用验前信息可以得到分布参数的验前概率密度函数 ,进而分析了产品的可靠性验证问题 ,顾及了使用方利益和生产方利益。仿真算例表明 ,使用方利益和生产方利益是相互折衷的。     

关于小高炮对空连发射击精度指标与命中概率的探讨

就小高炮连发射击所给出脱靶量的两种战技指标进行了分析。并给出了连发射击命中概率的计算方法,且建立了预测模型。计算结果表明,建模与思想对对空射击有一定的参考价值。     

面向 MPP Fortran 的程序自动并行化初探

ＭＰＰＦｏｒｔｒａｎ是由Ｃｒａｙ公司推出的一种较有代表性的数据并行语言,本文首先介绍了ＭＰＰＦｏｒｔｒａｎ的主要特点,然后,以该语言为例,对面向ＭＰＰ系统程序自动并行化的主要内容进行了初步的探讨。     

汽车空调制冷系统的优化分布原则研究

本文结合汽车空调系统的装修实践,以热舒适条件为评判标准,根据空调制冷系统的性能计算和车箱热载荷计算,提出了汽车空调制冷系统的选用依据及其优化分布的若干基本原则。