The ‘first’ surge: the repulse of the Easter Invasion in South Vietnam, 1972 – implications for Iraq and Afghanistan

In a military intervention, do surges work? I compare the failed ‘surge’ in Vietnam, the repulse of the Easter Invasion in 1972, as a means of assessing the more ambiguous surges in Iraq and Afghanistan. I identify four features of a surge for this analysis: the military dimensions and strategy of the surging forces, the military capabilities of the host forces, the political vitality and will of the host country, and the political commitment in the domestic politics of the intervener. I find that the last feature is the most critical; and, in all three surges, the American political commitment was lacking.     

小散远部队单位疫情防控工作思考【专题】

重大疫情具有突发性强、危害性大等特点，一旦发生，极易在防疫准备不充足的小散远部队单位造成爆发。加强基层疫情防控基础建设贵在平时，势在必行。本文首先对重大疫情的特点和小散远部队单位防疫工作面临的现实困难进行了分析，并对开展新时代基层单位疫情防控工作进行了思考，最后提出了应在思想政治教育、军地联动、心理辅导和防疫效果评估等方面予以加强的小散远部队单位疫情防控工作系统框架，以期为提高部队基层防疫效率提供参考。     

小子样多失效模式系统可靠性竞争模型

为解决小子样多失效模式系统可靠性模型参数的估计问题,首先应用支持向量积建立小子样条件下各故障模式的规律模型,其次利用模型将各故障模式的故障数据由小子样扩充成大样本,再次采用常规的参数估算方法估算各故障模式的分布参数,最后建立多失效模式系统的可靠性竞争模型。利用所提方法,建立了小子样条件下具有两种失效模式的柴油机汽缸套可靠性竞争模型,计算结果与大样本条件下的故障预测数据吻合度较高,说明了方法的有效性。     

Between the Cracks: Actor Fragmentation and Local Conflict Systems in the Libyan Civil War

Abstract

After nearly four years of civil war, Libya continues to be described as an ‘ungoverned space’ where the collapse of state institutions reignited tribal, political, religious and ideological tensions. These accounts, however, obscure Libya’s complex subnational governance, and the role of non-state armed groups in shaping the emerging political orders. By contrast, we contend that distinct subnational political orders have emerged in Libya since 2014 in which actors engage in state-making practices driven by local interests. Using empirical evidence to explore the activity of non-state armed groups during the Libyan civil conflict, we highlight that the local conflict environments in eastern, western and southern Libya provide specific incentives that shape the process of armed group splintering and patterns of violence. The findings demonstrate that claims to authority and notions of statehood extend far beyond the state whereby governance relations are negotiated between state and non-state actors. Conflict patterns, (in)stability and the prevailing political order are therefore conditional on the nature of the dominant actor, their strategies and modes of violence within their areas of influence. Through this analysis, the paper provides a more granular understanding of the local political dynamics that drive violence in Libya and civil wars more generally.     

The Environment as a Factor in Small Wars*

This research paper analyzes the relationship between small wars, insurgency, and the natural environment. Existing literature and data are organized into four behavioral patterns: the resource-based wars accounts for the fight over natural resources; the warfare ecology paradigm refers to non-premeditated damage in preparation for as well as during and after conflicts; the environment as a target discusses intended attacks on the ecosystem; and the insurgency–climate intersection pattern denotes a deviation in climate change that increases the frequency of intergroup violence. The main premise is that small wars emerge when the ecosystem becomes a political asset.     

群体决策与个人决策的选择

决策对于管理者来说至关重要,因为它关系到人们能否顺利实现目标.何时采用群体决策或个人决策,取决于三个方面的问题:群体决策和个人决策的效率,群体决策和个人决策的冒险倾向,以及小团体意识.