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101.
Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011 相似文献
102.
Johan Marklund 《海军后勤学研究》2011,58(1):59-71
This article analyses a divergent supply chain consisting of a central warehouse and N nonidentical retailers. The focus is on joint evaluation of inventory replenishment and shipment consolidation effects. A time‐based dispatching and shipment consolidation policy is used at the warehouse in conjunction with real‐time point‐of‐sale data and centralized inventory information. This represents a common situation, for example, in various types of vendor managed inventory systems. The main contribution is the derivation of an exact recursive procedure for determining the expected inventory holding and backorder costs for the system, under the assumption of Poisson demand. Two heuristics for determining near optimal shipment intervals are also presented. The results are applicable both for single‐item and multiitem systems. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 59–71, 2011 相似文献
103.
104.
In this study, we explore an inventory model for a wholesaler who sells a fashion product through two channels with asymmetric sales horizons. The wholesaler can improve profitability by employing joint procurement and inventory reallocation as a recourse action in response to the dynamics of sales. In this research, a simple stochastic programming model is analyzed to specify the properties of the optimal inventory decisions. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011 相似文献
105.
针对压力容器制造、使用过程中各种参数的不确定性,提出了一种基于响应平面的随机分析方法.根据某压力容器的结构特点,确定性有限元分析采用了接触有限元,结合中心组合抽样设计构建了容器最大应力的响应平面,以此为基础对压力容器应力分布进行了随机分析.可靠性分析中引入应力—强度干涉模型,并分别对容器壁面和接管处进行了可靠性评定.实... 相似文献
106.
This paper deals with an inspection game of customs and a smuggler. The customs can take two options of assigning a patrol or not. The smuggler has two strategies of shipping its cargo of contraband or not. Two players have several opportunities to take actions during a limited number of days. When both players do, there are some possibilities that the customs captures the smuggler and, simultaneously, the smuggler possibly makes a success of the smuggling. If the smuggler is captured or there remain no days for playing the game, the game ends. In this paper, we formulate the problem into a multi‐stage two‐person zero‐sum stochastic game and investigate some characteristics of the equilibrium solution, some of which are given in a closed form in a special case. There have been some studies so far on the inspection game. However, some consider the case that the smuggler has only one opportunity of smuggling or the perfect‐capture case that the customs can certainly arrest the smuggler on patrol, and others think of a recursive game without the probabilities of fulfilling the players' purposes. In this paper, we consider the inspection game taking account of the fulfillment probabilities of the players' aims. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006 相似文献
107.
提出了一种分析多自由度非线性系统在随机激励下响应的高效模拟方法。该方法以蒙特卡罗方法为基础,针对动态问题,建立了有效的重要性判别准则,采用俄罗斯轮盘赌与分裂方法来处理响应样本,增加了样本在低失效概率区域出现的几率,提高了模拟效率。通过两个算例表明,该方法操作简单,可以大大地减少计算量,能够适用于实际的工程问题。 相似文献
108.
针对基于卡尔曼滤波框架算法只能处理已知高斯噪声系统的局限性,设计能够同时处理含有异类噪声系统的改进算法。将不确定系统受到的干扰分成高斯噪声和未知有界噪声,对噪声特点进行分析,并将其加入状态方程和观测方程;在吸收集员滤波优点的基础上,对标准卡尔曼滤波进行改进,通过计算包含两种异类噪声系统状态的最小均方误差,得到该条件下滤波增益的调整值;将利用集员滤波得到的状态统计量以及两类噪声信息和调整后的滤波增益代入卡尔曼滤波体系,得到改进后的滤波算法。将提出的改进方法应用于不确定车辆导航系统中进行解算,仿真结果表明:改进滤波方法能够有效克服异类噪声的干扰,性能优于扩展卡尔曼滤波方法,对异类噪声具有较好的抵抗能力。 相似文献
109.
Chemotherapy appointment scheduling is a challenging problem due to the uncertainty in premedication and infusion durations. In this paper, we formulate a two‐stage stochastic mixed integer programming model for the chemotherapy appointment scheduling problem under limited availability of nurses and infusion chairs. The objective is to minimize the expected weighted sum of nurse overtime, chair idle time, and patient waiting time. The computational burden to solve real‐life instances of this problem to optimality is significantly high, even in the deterministic case. To overcome this burden, we incorporate valid bounds and symmetry breaking constraints. Progressive hedging algorithm is implemented in order to solve the improved formulation heuristically. We enhance the algorithm through a penalty update method, cycle detection and variable fixing mechanisms, and a linear approximation of the objective function. Using numerical experiments based on real data from a major oncology hospital, we compare our solution approach with several scheduling heuristics from the relevant literature, generate managerial insights related to the impact of the number of nurses and chairs on appointment schedules, and estimate the value of stochastic solution to assess the significance of considering uncertainty. 相似文献
110.
态势估计中统计时间推理在许多应用中非常重要。Kirilov的基于极大似然估计(MaximumLikelihoodEstimation,MLE)的推理方法将未知时间变量看作常数,忽略了它的先验信息,估计方差较大。针对这一问题,本文首先建立了已知时间信息和未知时间变量之间的关系模型,这一模型可用来解释Kirilov的方法;然后在这一模型下,将未知时间变量扩展为随机变量,采用基于最大后验概率估计(MaximumaPos-terioriEstimation,MAP)的方法进行统计时间推理。对两种推理算法的性能进行了分析和比较,发现在较宽的范围内,基于MAP的方法性能优于基于MLE的方法。 相似文献