非对称相互依赖下的美日军事同盟机制分析——以奥巴马政府“重返亚太”为视角

2012年1月5日,美国国防部发表了《保持美国的全球领导地位:21世纪的防务重点计划报告》,在"重返亚太"战略的战略背景下,重点针对美国未来的军事力量结构、全球部署态势、军事战略目标等进行了重新规划。新军事战略调整对整个国际格局和地区性大国产生深远影响。随着美国重返亚太的战略调整,军事上的相互依赖程度体现在美日同盟之间尤为突出。本文仅从军事战略角度,运用《权力与相互依赖》中部分理论对其调整下的美日军事同盟机制进行分析。     

Reconciling strategic studies … with itself: a common framework for choosing among strategies

Three distinct, and seemingly irreconcilable, schools of thought are identified within the strategic studies literature. One which searches for “universal principles of war,” a second, “context-dependent,” approach that seeks to embed each instance of warfare within its concurrent social, political, technological milieu and, finally a “paradoxical logic” school, which equates strategy with the generation of uncertainty. The author offers some intuitive concepts from non-cooperative game theory to develop a “dominate-mix” approach to strategy choice. In doing so, he helps to reconcile these disparate approaches and provides a simple framework to assist researchers in framing military decisions as well as to assist planners in choosing among strategies.     

要地防空中的光电对抗战术

介绍了光电精确制导武器和光电对抗装备的特点,进而分析得出要地防空中要采用分层对抗战术,并分析了实施方法和运用方式,给出了战术配置原则,从技术、战术和地形气候方面分析了影响战术配置的因素,对部队开展基地训练中的光电对抗战术训练具有一定的参考价值。     

战略机遇期公共消防安全热点解析

在重要战略机遇期,消防工作保障和服务经济社会发展的作用更加凸显。在研判重要战略机遇期的消防安全形势任务的基础上,从解决制约消防工作的体制性、机制性和保障性问题入手,提出了加强和改革消防工作的对策措施。     

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON LOW NUCLEAR NUMBERS

President Barack Obama has outlined a course toward lower numbers of US nuclear weapons. Much attention has been paid to the US-Russian context, where deterrence is believed to be basically stable and conditions ripe for gradually reducing arsenals on both sides. But considerably less attention has been paid to the possible implications of lower nuclear numbers on other regions of the world and the reactions of both adversaries and US allies. If nuclear reductions are to be stabilizing and beneficial to security, reassurance and strengthened nonproliferation efforts in various regions need to accompany nuclear cuts. But the specific problems and remedies across regions vary. This article summarizes the results of a multi-author study. It concludes that regions with US allies and formal extended deterrence pledges may pose more vexing problems than those areas of the world without such close allies or commitments.     

NUCLEAR STABILITY AT LOW NUMBERS

Chinese writings on the workings of nuclear stability, deterrence, and coercion are thin and politicized. Nevertheless, it is possible to glean, from direct and inferential evidence, rather pessimistic conclusions regarding Chinese views of nuclear stability at low numbers. While China has been living with low numbers in its own arsenal for decades, today it views missile defense and advanced conventional weapons as the primary threat to nuclear stability. More generally, China views nuclear stability as wedded to political amity. Because none of these would be directly addressed through further US and Russian arsenal reductions, China is unlikely to view such reductions as particularly stabilizing. While there is little in Chinese writing to suggest lower US and Russian numbers would encourage a “race to parity,” there are grounds to worry about China becoming more assertive as it gains confidence in Beijing's own increasingly secure second-strike forces.     

“前进一步自然宽”——也谈军事战略思维“转型”

军事战略思维转型是推进中国特色军事变革的内在要求和重要组成部分,也是信息化条件下加强军队建设的一项重要内容。中国特色军事变革,不仅需要器物层面变革的支撑,更需要以军事战略思维转型为核心的精神层面变革的引领。     

熵、信息与战略欺骗

熵最初用于描述宏观物理系统的热力学状态,之后被广泛应用于控制论、概率论、数论、天体物理、生命科学等领域,但是在军事领域的应用研究还很少。以熵、信息等基本概念为基础探讨军事领域中在战略欺骗方面的应用,通过对战略欺骗的热力学分析,提出了负信息馈送原理,并给出了两种实施战略欺骗的操作技术。     

战略联盟中知识转移影响因素概念模型构建：网络角度的思考

根据知识转移的一般过程,从社会网络视角出发,不同于以往研究中二元维度的分析,从网络结点能力、网络关系和认知、网络结构三个维度提出了影响战略联盟网络组织中知识转移绩效的关键影响因素,并深入分析各个关键因素的细分变量对知识转移绩效的影响作用机理,最后提出战略联盟网络知识转移影响因素的相关假设和概念模型,为下一步对假设的验证做铺垫。