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1.
不确定条件下的不完备信息分析是多属性决策中的主要内容之一,Yang提出的证据推理方法可以较好地处理这类信息。研究了证据推理方法中不完备信息的影响因素,包括规则中的不完备信息,规则的权重以及规则的一致性,并以此为基础分析了评估结果中不完备信息的取值范围,得出了初步结论:评估结果中不完备信息的信度必然小于作为输入的规则中不完备信息中的较大者,但不一定大于其中的较小者。进一步分析了规则一致性的逻辑意义和几何意义,指出规则的一致性实际描述了规则之间的冲突程度。  相似文献   
2.
针对准则权重信息不完全情况下的多属性决策问题,提出了一种新的证据推理多属性决策算法,它通过建立基于证据信息熵的决策模型来求解准则的最优权重系数,利用求解得到的权重系数和递归ER算法求出各方案的效用值,进而得到各方案的优劣次序。最后,通过算例分析验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。  相似文献   
3.
The purpose of the current paper is to examine the adoption and adaptation process of mission command (Auftragstaktik) in the US Army. This concept, developed by the Prussians, denotes a decentralized command approach wherein superiors dictate their intent and allow subordinates to formulate their operational plans independently and change it according to the emerging situation. The paper examines the US command approach prior to the adoption of mission command. It argues that it was heavily influenced by corporate management practices which inherently contradict mission command approach. It continues and investigates how the US Army endeavored to emulate the approach in its doctrine and in major operations.

While it has officially incorporated mission command into its doctrine, it has been less successful in utilizing it in operational situations. This state of affairs has to do with the cultural legacy of the managerial approach to command that still persist. Despite the partial success, the US Army has recently reaffirmed its commitment to this approach.  相似文献   
4.
基于多特征的图象目标识别分类   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4       下载免费PDF全文
文中研究将多特征信息融合技术用于图象目标识别分类的方法,利用图象灰度表面的分形特征与图象的摘特征(非分形特征)所提供的信息进行融合处理,在决策层中运用Dempster-Shafer证据推理理论,并使用决策规则对目标进行分类。在实验中,将经过信息融合分类的结果与单特征独自分类的结果进行比较。结果表明,多特征信息融合的目标识别方法具有良好的稳定性,准确性和可靠性,能够有效地提高图象分类识别系统的精确度与容错性。  相似文献   
5.
态势估计中基于假设检验的统计时间推理方法   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
在战场态势估计中,常常需要判断事件发生的时间顺序,而对事件发生时间的观测往往含有统计不确定性。这里将假设检验理论引入时间推理,建立了一种判别两个事件发生顺序的新方法,同时研究了在统计不确定性下时间顺序的传递性,从而有效增强了态势估计中对时间关系的描述和推理能力  相似文献   
6.
针对体系对抗条件下空袭目标选择缺乏不确定多要素分析能力和足够的自主推理能力,研究了空袭体系的基本作战样式,根据智能决策模拟系统需求,结合决策行为产生机理,建立基于区间数的综合推理模型,给出空袭目标优选规则,提出基于推理的体系对抗条件下空袭目标优选方法,最后给出一个仿真实例。实例结果表明,该方法可作为体系对抗条件下作战仿真系统的重要组成部分,为军事指挥员提供辅助决策支持。  相似文献   
7.
US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy may be moving, by design and by inadvertence, toward a posture of strategic “defensivism”. Strategic “defensivism” emphasizes the overlapping and reinforcing impact of: (1) reductions in US, Russian and possibly other strategic nuclear forces, possibly down to the level of “minimum deterrence,” (2) deployment of improved strategic and/or theater antimissile defenses for the US, NATO allies and other partners; and (3) additional reliance on conventional military forces for some missions hitherto preferentially assigned to nuclear weapons. This article deals with the first two of these aspects only: the interaction between missile defenses and offensive force reductions in US–Russian strategy and policy. The findings are that stable deterrence as between the USA and Russia is possible at lower than New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty levels, but reductions below 1000 deployed long-range weapons for each state, toward a true minimum deterrent posture, will require multilateral as opposed to bilateral coordination of arms limitations. Missile defenses might provide some denial capability against light attacks by states with small arsenals, but they still fall short of meaningful damage limitation as between powers capable of massive nuclear strikes.  相似文献   
8.
Professor Joseph Soeters shows admirable ambition in comparing national styles of conflict resolution and is extremely eager to draw historical lessons from such comparative exercises. However, he gets entangled in national mythmaking as he underestimates the complexity of comparative history of this kind. Particularly the establishment of true causal links between national (strategic) cultures and actual tactical behaviour on the ground is far more difficult than he suggests in his recent book chapter and his reply to my article in this journal.  相似文献   
9.
军用仿真系统中 ,专家系统作为一个决策软件包 ,满足整个软件系统运行的性能需要 ,因此研究专家系统的推理时间是必要的。专家系统的推理时间与其推理模式、知识库结构等因素有关。针对知识库结构 ,利用时间齐次马尔可夫链为专家系统知识库进行建模 ,并给出了相应的时间估计模型及其排列准则 ,从而可以研究专家系统的实时性。  相似文献   
10.
资源水平边界的估计是构建资源利用可行计划中的一个基础问题。通过分析航天器资源约束的共享与分离并存、累积与瞬时消耗并存、过度订阅与区间调度并存等特点,提出了资源时间网络、时间约束网络和约束网络相结合的资源约束描述方法;构建了增量式基于包络的资源约束算法和最早开始时间链展开资源约束算法,以快速获取资源一致的柔性解。实例证明,该方法较好地解决了航天器调度的资源约束推理问题。  相似文献   
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