反舰导弹纯方位发射捕捉概率计算方法

反舰导弹的纯方位发射对目标信息要求不高,在目标信息的探测越来越艰难的今天,是反舰导弹较为重要的一种发射方式,也将会成为未来海战场上常用的作战方式.介绍了反舰导弹捕捉概率的计算方法和传统纯方位发射的捕捉概率的计算方法,并从分析反舰导弹捕捉概率的计算模型和影响因素出发,指出传统的反舰导弹纯方位发射的捕捉概率计算模型存在不足,并给出了修正后的计算模型.     

An attacker‐defender model for analyzing the vulnerability of initial attack in wildfire suppression

Wildfire managers use initial attack (IA) to control wildfires before they grow large and become difficult to suppress. Although the majority of wildfire incidents are contained by IA, the small percentage of fires that escape IA causes most of the damage. Therefore, planning a successful IA is very important. In this article, we study the vulnerability of IA in wildfire suppression using an attacker‐defender Stackelberg model. The attacker's objective is to coordinate the simultaneous ignition of fires at various points in a landscape to maximize the number of fires that cannot be contained by IA. The defender's objective is to optimally dispatch suppression resources from multiple fire stations located across the landscape to minimize the number of wildfires not contained by IA. We use a decomposition algorithm to solve the model and apply the model on a test case landscape. We also investigate the impact of delay in the response, the fire growth rate, the amount of suppression resources, and the locations of fire stations on the success of IA.     

柔软物体力触觉形变模型验证系统

为了验证柔性物体力-形变模型的合理性,构建了基于CC2531芯片的无线数据收发平台、力传感器测量平台和FALCON手控器位移测量平台的力-形变模型验证系统。以新鲜猪肝脏为实验对象,研究了弹性形变实验和穿刺实验的作用力与位移之间的关系;以力-形变测量数据为基础,进行了参数验证校调。仿真实验结果表明:模型中力-形变特性与实际测量值保持一致。该系统能广泛应用于柔性物体力-形变模型验证,对于促进力触觉虚拟医学仿真系统的发展具有重要意义。     

船舶静态电场跟踪的渐进更新扩展卡尔曼滤波器

为了实现利用船舶静态电场对船舶进行跟踪的目的,针对传统卡尔曼滤波算法中存在的问题,设计一种新的非线性滤波器。建立船舶的状态空间模型,分析传统卡尔曼滤波算法在船舶跟踪中存在的问题;依据渐进贝叶斯思想,利用连续白噪声与离散白噪声序列噪声协方差之间的关系,设计一种新的渐进更新扩展卡尔曼滤波器。仿真结果表明,该滤波器能有效地抑制由于初始误差较大而造成的滤波性能下降和滤波发散,能够有效地跟踪船舶,具有较高的实用价值。     

C~4ISR系统仿真测试研究

针对一种C4ISR系统在测试时的特点,提出了模拟仿真测试的方案,建立了仿真装备与指挥系统的交互模型,设计了交互对象的自动匹配算法,并在实际系统的仿真测试中得到应用和验证。     

Optimal switchover times between two activities utilizing the same resource

The “gold‐mining” decision problem is concerned with the efficient utilization of a delicate mining equipment working in a number of different mines. Richard Bellman was the first to consider this type of a problem. The solution found by Bellman for the finite‐horizon, continuous‐time version of the problem with two mines is not overly realistic since he assumed that fractional parts of the same mining equipment could be used in different mines and this fraction could change instantaneously. In this paper, we provide some extensions to this model in order to produce more operational and realistic solutions. Our first model is concerned with developing an operational policy where the equipment may be switched from one mine to the other at most once during a finite horizon. In the next extension we incorporate a cost component in the objective function and assume that the horizon length is not fixed but it is the second decision variable. Structural properties of the optimal solutions are obtained using nonlinear programming. Each model and its solution is illustrated with a numerical example. The models developed here may have potential applications in other areas including production of items requiring the same machine or choosing a sequence of activities requiring the same resource. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 186–203, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10008     

论消防工作与政府投入的数学原理

近年来,政府对消防投入水平较低。通过建立数学模型,从消防部门与政府的相互关系进行理论论证,抛砖引玉,提出消防工作的建议。     

A general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes and conditions for system burn‐in

Burn‐in is a technique to enhance reliability by eliminating weak items from a population of items having heterogeneous lifetimes. System burn‐in can improve system reliability, but the conditions for system burn‐in to be performed after component burn‐in remain a little understood mathematical challenge. To derive such conditions, we first introduce a general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes, in which the component burn‐in information and assembly problems are related to the prediction of system burn‐in. Many existing system burn‐in models become special cases and two important results are identified. First, heterogeneous system lifetimes can be understood naturally as a consequence of heterogeneous component lifetimes and heterogeneous assembly quality. Second, system burn‐in is effective if assembly quality variation in the components and connections which are arranged in series is greater than a threshold, where the threshold depends on the system structure and component failure rates. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 364–380, 2003.     

动态飞行仿真中人体六自由度模型研究

应用多体系动力学方法,结合飞行力学,给出了动态飞行仿真中飞行员的六自由度数学模型,并将其应用在动态飞行仿真建模中,分析结果表明这种数学模型是可行的。     

一种BP神经网络算法的改进模型

首先对BP网络的结构和算法进行了分析,针对BP网络收敛速度慢,容易陷入局部极小等问题,提出了一种改进的BP网络模型,并对该模型算法进行了改进,通过激活函数的选择,网络的初始化,学习率的调整和训练样本数据的处理等方法,可实现加快网络的收敛速度,并且较好的解决局部最优问题.