弹体压心位置变化对末制导炮弹弹道的影响

首先对比弹体压心位置变化对火箭增程弹道和末制导炮弹名义弹道的不同影响，重点分析弹体压心位置变化对末制导炮弹末导段弹道的影响特点，得出弹体压心位置变化对末导段弹道的捕获域和有效攻击区有着重要影响的结论。该结论对末制导炮弹的射表编拟以及新型末制导炮弹的设计都具有重要指导意义。     

公共场所人员安全疏散评价方法探讨

公共场所安全疏散评价对于确保火灾中人员的生命安全具有重要意义。基于“性能化”防火设计的思想，对影响公共场所安全疏散的因素进行了分析，并对安全疏散的必要性能和评价程序进行了较为全面的探讨，其中包括烟气的评价、人员疏散能力的评价、疏散路线合理性的评价、疏散对策的评价等，目的在于通过合理的评价方法得出合理的疏散性能，为减少公共场所火灾造成的人员伤亡和财产损失提供帮助。     

新形势下关于高校学生管理模式改革的思考

在新形势下,我国高校发生了一系列重大变化,学生管理模式必须进行相应的改革,其主要表现在以下三个方面:树立“以学生为本”的理念,强化服务意识;搜索管理盲点,改革管理体制;注重管理人员的素质,加强学生管理队伍的建设。     

高校现代教育技术应用现状及发展趋势

通过对高校现代教育技术应用现状的分析,阐述了高校现代教育技术应用的发展趋势。     

Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

基于油液分析的装备状态多阶段组合预测模型

状态预测是状态维修的关键步骤之一。针对装备状态变化规律复杂、特点难易准确掌握的关键问题,以延时时间概念和两阶段预知模型为基础,提出了根据不同阶段特点采用不同预测方法的多阶段组合预测模型。通过油液分析及其相关规定,对装备运行阶段进行了具体划分,给出了适应各阶段特点的预测方法。最后,通过实例验证了该模型的有效性。     

基于神经网络的模糊理论在桥梁状态评估中的应用

探讨了模糊数学中的隶属函数在桥梁技术等级状态评估中的应用.在研究现有桥梁状态评估方法的基础上,把人工神经网络和模糊数学理论结合起来应用于大跨度预应力斜拉桥的等级状态评估,建立了基于三层神经元的模糊神经网络模型,并建立结构损伤度函数及等级隶属度模型,通过样本学习训练,获取评估专家的知识及直觉思维,最终确定桥梁所对应的技术状态等级.以检测的480组索力数据作为学习样本,另外4组作为验证样本进行了索力状态评估预测.计算结果表明,网络预测值与期望值吻合良好.     

存在自干扰码时的短周期伪码截获技术

针对伪码截获这一无线电侦察和导航战中的难题,从模式识别的角度研究存在自干扰码时的伪码截获问题。通过对干扰码的载波频率、相位等参数的估计和补偿,将自干扰码下的伪码截获问题转换为模式识别问题。结合伪码的周期性,采用二进制积累的方法大大降低了判决前所要求的信噪比,使得对扩频信号直接解调以截获伪码成为可能,改变了过去依靠大口径天线提高信噪比的方法。     

舰载武器作战使用条件仿真量化分析

运用层次分析法、本征向量法和多属性决策问题的数据处理等方法,对舰载武器作战使用的约束条件进行了量化分析和数据处理,系统地描述了单一约束条件和多个约束条件对武器有效使用的概率问题,建立了约束条件下,舰载武器作战使用仿真流程。研究结果对舰载武器作战使用具有一定的指导作用。     

A model to predict the residual life of aircraft engines based upon oil analysis data

This paper reports on a study using the available oil monitoring information, such as the data obtained using the Spectrometric Oil Analysis Programme (SOAP), to predict the residual life of a set of aircraft engines. The relationship between oil monitoring information and the residual life is established using the concept of the proportional residual, which states that the predicted residual life may be proportional to the wear increment measured by the oil analysis programmes. Assuming such a relationship between wear and the residual life exists, we formulated a recursive prediction model for the item's residual life given measured oil monitoring information to date. A set of censored life data of 30 aircraft engines (right censored due to preventive overhaul) along with the history of their monitored metal concentration information are available to us. The metal concentration information includes many variables, such as Fe, Cu, Al, etc.; not all of them are useful, and some of them may be correlated. The principal component analysis (PCA) has been adopted to reduce the dimension of the original data set and to produce a new set of uncorrelated variables, which we shall use in the prediction model. The procedure associated with estimating model parameters is discussed. The model is fitted to the actual SOAP data from the aircraft engines, and the goodness‐of‐fit test has been carried out. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.