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VANESSA FARR 《African Security Review》2013,22(1):116-119
Abstract There is an assumption that we can enhance peacebuilding by improving the tools that we use for assessments, planning and evaluation. However, the focus on tools creates the impression that peacebuilding challenges are technical. Improving tools is not meaningless, but our preoccupation with tools has a negative effect when it becomes a front for avoiding dealing with the deeper inherent contradictions in peacebuilding. There are limits to our knowledge and our ability to engineer specific outcomes in complex systems. There are unrealistically high expectations of coherence, unity of purpose and cooperation among peacebuilding actors. Peacebuilding agents are interconnected, but that does not imply that they have the same objectives, mandates, principles and values. Interconnected problems call for interconnected responses, not for one coherent response. Coherence should not be about negotiating a common position, and then promoting it regardless of changing dynamics. Coherence should be about continuously managing competing interests and interdependencies. The interaction between dissention, competition for resources, and the tension between different approaches and policy choices is not only normal but necessary to ensure the optimal functioning of the system. 相似文献
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以具有层次结构的局域网作为拓扑模型,考虑共因失效和关联失效这2类节点非独立失效事件发生的情况,建立了交换机节点失效模型来模拟交换机失效,利用Monte-Carlo仿真算法近似计算出网络的两端可靠性,研究2种共因失效事件和3种关联失效事件对网络端端可靠性的影响。结果表明:因资源节点出现故障和协议层出现错误而导致交换机失效的共因失效事件均会降低网络可靠性,且资源节点失效概率或协议层失效概率越大,网络可靠性越低;而由于使用了热备份技术、堆叠技术以及发生广播风暴导致的关联失效事件,即使节点独立失效概率很小,只要相关因数足够大,故障都会快速传播,导致网络可靠性迅速下降。 相似文献
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Matthew H. Wahlert 《Defense & Security Analysis》2012,28(3):247-259
The goal of this article is to challenge the assumption of rationality in the behavior of decision-making units involved in security, defense, intelligence and warfare and to consider the influence of “motivated bias” in such instances. A review of motivational literature within international politics and a discussion of literature applying “motivated biases” to warfare and strategic surprise will offer an alternative view of the primacy of rationality in such decisions. 相似文献
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在具有不确定样本下平均故障间隔时间的估计方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对武器系统和产品的可靠性试验中的不确定因素,对试验没有完成的情况,研究利用非传统的统计分析法估计武器装备平均故障间隔时间. 相似文献
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王才英 《兵团教育学院学报》2011,21(5):60-62
随着中外交流的日益频繁,双语公示语的作用日益突出。只有语用语言和社交语用都正确的双语公示语才能实现其应有的功能。本文主要分析双语公示语社交语用失误的成因及表现,并探讨公示语的翻译技巧。 相似文献
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对加速寿命试验设计优化的相关知识进行研究分析,确定以竞争失效产品恒应力加速寿命试验为应用背景。在对加速寿命试验统计分析深入研究的基础上,通过分析方案要素、约束条件等建立优化目标函数,提出基于模拟退火算法的优化方法和具体实现思路。最后通过实例验证方法的可行性和实用性。 相似文献
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A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013 相似文献