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曹文娟 《中国人民武装警察部队学院学报》2006,22(2):23-25
通过分析已有的火灾统计数据,建立了简单的二元线性回归模型,并对此模型进行了显著性检验。分析表明违规操作和电气故障是群死群伤火灾的主要因素。可以利用此模型分析火灾统计中不同形式的数据,并进一步说明统计模型在火灾统计中的作用。 相似文献
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为掌握带内双频电磁辐射对雷达的虚警干扰规律,以频率步进连续波雷达为研究对象,基于理论分析与效应试验,研究了虚警目标的电平变化规律、波形特征以及出现位置规律。结果表明:受试雷达在带内双频电磁辐射作用下,不考虑互调干扰时,至多产生两个位置随机的“山丘型”虚警目标,两者距离差与双频干扰频差有关。双频干扰中两分量互相压制,即当任一干扰分量强度恒定时,随着另一个分量的增强,前者形成的虚警目标电平缓慢下降,最终降速基本恒定,而后者形成虚警目标电平逐渐升高,直至电平恒定;若双频干扰信号两分量同比例增强,则两个虚警目标电平均在初期近似线性上升,而后增速逐渐降低至零。 相似文献
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机内测试虚警问题是影响系统完好性和使用保障费用的重要因素。针对环境因素导致的虚警问题,设计了时间环境应力测量装置,应用支持向量机的小样本学习优点,建立虚警与环境因素的关联关系,应用隐马尔可夫模型的连续动态信号处理能力,描述系统长期工作历程中虚警的发生规律,提出了基于时间环境应力测量装置-支持向量机-隐马尔可夫模型的机内测试智能降虚警方法。最后,在某型直升机航向姿态系统上进行了应用与验证,试验结果表明:该方法有效识别出了机内测试的虚警。 相似文献
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《Arms and Armour》2013,10(2):75-97
The restoration of Westminster Hall in the 1830s revealed a number of eleventh-century carved capitals, one depicting, as then described, ‘an armed man assailing a castle’. Aided by archaeological evidence from Abinger (Surrey), the ‘castle’ can be convincingly interpreted as a motte-top tower, carried by earth-fast posts, open-sided below and faced above with boards painted to resemble masonry. It is the only known depiction in elevation of a type of tower that is likely, given its simplicity, to have been widely used in the eleventh and twelfth centuries. The assailant, armed with an axe, carrying a round shield and wearing a helmet with nasal, is shown climbing the tower’s external stair at the moment of being despatched or wounded by the defender’s spear. The incident, an individual action rather than a ‘siege’ as such, has many oddities, and may represent a topical event or scene from history or mythology. The story of the Trojan War is suggested as a possible source. 相似文献
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We consider a stochastic partially observable system that can switch between a normal state and a transient abnormal state before entering a persistent abnormal state. Only the persistent abnormal state requires alarms. The transient and persistent abnormal states may be similar in appearance, which can result in excess false alarms. We propose a partially observable Markov decision process model to minimize the false alarm rate, subject to a given upper bound on the expected alarm delay time. The cost parameter is treated as the Lagrange multiplier, which can be estimated from the bound of the alarm delay. We show that the optimal policy has a control‐limit structure on the probability of persistent abnormality, and derive closed‐form bounds for the control limit and present an algorithm to specify the Lagrange multiplier. We also study a specialized model where the transient and persistent abnormal states have the same observation distribution, in which case an intuitive “watchful‐waiting” policy is optimal. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 320–334, 2016 相似文献
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分析间歇采样转发形成的假目标干扰对雷达CFAR检测的影响和间歇采样转发假目标生成机理,给出间歇采样转发假目标产生方法。在此基础上,以雷达一次搜索周期内虚警、漏警造成的检测代价作为检测性能指标,分别分析单元平均恒虚警检测器、有序恒虚警检测器、剔除和平均恒虚警检测器在间歇采样转发假目标干扰下的检测代价。着重分析间歇采样转发干扰关键参数对检测代价的影响。仿真结果表明,间歇采样转发产生的多个假目标显著提高了雷达的检测代价,检测代价受转发占空比、转发功率的影响较大,而受转发频率影响较小。在三种恒虚警检测器的对比中,剔除和平均恒虚警检测器相对于另两种检测器的检测代价更大些。 相似文献
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A novel gradient approach for optimal design and sensitivity analysis of EWMA control charts 下载免费PDF全文
Conventional control charts are often designed to optimize out‐of‐control average run length (ARL), while constraining in‐control ARL to a desired value. The widely employed grid search approach in statistical process control (SPC) is time‐consuming with unsatisfactory accuracy. Although the simulation‐based ARL gradient estimators proposed by Fu and Hu [Manag Sci 45 (1999), 395–413] can alleviate this issue, it still requires a large number of simulation runs to significantly reduce the variance of gradient estimators. This article proposes a novel ARL gradient estimation approach based on integral equation for efficient analysis and design of control charts. Although this article compares with the results of Fu and Hu [Manag Sci 45 (1999), 395–413] based on the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart, the proposed approach has wide applicability as it can generally fit into any control chart with Markovian property under any distributions. It is shown that the proposed method is able to provide a fast, accurate, and easy‐to‐implement algorithm for the design and analysis of EWMA charts, as compared to the simulation‐based gradient estimation method. Moreover, the proposed gradient estimation method facilitates the computation of high‐order derivatives that are valuable in sensitivity analysis. The code is written in Matlab, which is available on request. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 223–237, 2014 相似文献