Grammar but No Logic: Technique is Not Enough – A Response to Nagl and Burton

Abstract

In issue 33/1 of The Journal of Strategic Studies, John Nagl and Brian Burton were provided with the opportunity to respond to the observations we made in our article, ‘Whose Hearts and Whose Minds? The Curious Case of Global Counter-Insurgency’, which appeared in the same issue. Nagl and Burton's reply, however, did not overtly address the points raised in our article, but instead offered a re-statement of the precepts of classical counter-insurgency (COIN). While we certainly recognise the value of counter-insurgency methods in conflicts such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan, Nagl and Burton's reply overlooks our original concerns about the limited utility of neo-counter-insurgency thinking outside these environments and the dangerous political implications it contains. They further ignore our core contention that a narrow preoccupation with theatre-specific technique has profound limitations when offered as a universal panacea to address complex transnational threats.     

有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估及保障方案优化

备件库存和站点维修能力是影响备件维修周转的重要因素,制约着装备的使用效果。针对备件需求随任务阶段动态变化时装备保障方案的评估和优化问题,考虑站点维修能力对备件维修过程的影响,结合METRIC建模方法和动态排队理论,建立了有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估模型。在评估模型基础之上,以保障费用为优化目标、装备可用度为约束条件,建立任务期内多级保障系统保障方案优化模型。以任务期内的最低可用度所对应的备件短缺数为观测值,分析各项资源的边际效益值,采用边际优化算法对各项资源进行优化计算。算例分析表明,评估模型能够计算多级保障系统任务期内各阶段装备可用度;保障方案优化模型和方法能够得到各项保障资源的优化配置方案。提出的模型和优化方法能够为装备保障人员制订合理的保障方案提供决策支持。     

复合战斗部爆炸成型弹丸结构参数影响分析

应用AUTODYN仿真软件,对一种复合战斗部方案的爆炸成型弹丸成型性能进行了分析,结果表明,相对于传统布局方案,破片方案更改后改变了药型罩的成型过程,导致爆炸成型弹丸形状变差从而降低了毁伤性能。通过对结构参数影响进行分析,提出了优化方案,解决了破片方案调整后爆炸成型弹丸的成型问题。     

A LONG‐RUN ANALYSIS OF DEFENCE SPENDING IN THE NATO COUNTRIES (1960–99)

This paper analyses the long‐run demand for defence output through a homogeneous treatment of 15 NATO member countries between 1960 and 1999. We carry out a progressive study of the interactions between either defence spending or defence burden and their main determinants: income, external threat and allied military spending. To that end, we use time‐series analysis with endogenously determined structural breaks. We further consider individual country functions related to one another through a common correlated effects method, in order to take into account explicitly the connections between members of an alliance.     

Evasion costs and the theory Of conscription

This paper examines the trade and military relationship between two countries which have a common military enemy. The paper explains how the former two countries, which are military allies and trading partners, share the burden of defence against the third country. It demonstrates how the defence production of a country may hurt its ally because the latter country's terms of trade can be deteriorated. Whether or not a smaller ally spends less on defence is analyzed. Also analyzed is the effects of the reactions of the enemy country on the trade between the two allies and their welfare.     

Combating nuclear smuggling? Exploring drivers and challenges to detecting nuclear and radiological materials at maritime facilities

International concern over nuclear terrorism has grown during the past few decades. This has driven a broad spectrum of efforts to strengthen nuclear security globally, including the widespread adoption of radiation-detection technology for border monitoring. Detection systems are now deployed at strategic locations for the purported purpose of detecting and deterring the smuggling of nuclear and radioactive materials. However, despite considerable investment in this area, few studies have examined how these programs are implemented or the operational challenges they face on a day-to-day basis. This article seeks to address this with a focus on radiation-detection efforts at maritime facilities. Utilizing practitioner interviews and a survey, this article identifies the factors that influence the planning and use of these systems in this fast-moving environment. The results clearly demonstrate that the implementation of these systems varies significantly across different national and organizational contexts, resulting in a fragmented global nuclear-detection architecture, which arguably undermines efforts to detect trafficked nuclear-threat materials. Greater consideration should therefore be given to developing international standards and guidance, designing and adopting tools to support key parts of the alarm assessment process, and broader sharing of good practice.