Compound poisson approximation in systems reliability

The compound Poisson “local” formulation of the Stein-Chen method is applied to problems in reliability theory. Bounds for the accuracy of the approximation of the reliability by an appropriate compound Poisson distribution are derived under fairly general conditions, and are applied to consecutive-2 and connected-s systems, and the 2-dimensional consecutive-k-out-ofn system, together with a pipeline model. The approximations are usually better than the Poisson “local” approach would give. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The creation of committed combatants

Theories on conflict behaviour regard armed groups as unitary actors whose members faithfully execute the orders of their leaders. Nevertheless, in reality mutinies, insubordination and fractionalisation occur. We argue that the faithful execution of orders depends on the level of organisational commitment of combatants. This level can be increased with the help of four management strategies. Using a dataset based on fieldwork in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we analyse the influence of each of these strategies. The Bayesian analyses show that recruitment, training and promotion has statistical reliable influence, but that providing rewards does not.     

Create compliance and cohesion: how rebel organizations manage to survive

Established conflict theories focus on the role of incentives in the decision to join, stay, or leave an insurgency. These theories, however, disregard the pressure that an organization can impose on its members. Similar to legal organizations, we assert that a rebel organization can sustain itself by effective human resource management. Using narratives resulting from psychological trauma therapy of former combatants of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), these management strategies are examined. The analysis shows that the LRA sustains itself in the first place by the use of brute force. However, they also manage themselves by a careful selection process of their fighters, by the conscious creation of social control, and by offering their members an alternative social network in which promotion and compensation play a role.