The capital supply curve in capacity expansion models: Some economic and algorithmic aspects

Capacity expansion models typically minimize the discounted cost of acquisition and operation over a given planning horizon. In this article we generalize this idea to one in which a capital supply curve replaces the usual discount rate. A capital supply curve is a means to model financial outlook, investment limits, and risk. We show that when such a curve is included in a capacity expansion model, it will, under certain conditions, provide a less capital intensive solution than one which incorporates a discount rate. In this article, we also provide an algorithm that solves capacity expansion models that incorporate a capital supply curve. The attractive feature of this algorithm is that it provides a means to utilize the “discount rate” models efficiently. Throughout, we give applications in power generation planning and computational experience for this application is also presented.     

Book reviews

War, Culture and the Media: Representations of the Military in 20th Century Britain. Edited by Ian Stewart and Susan L. Carruthers, Trowbridge: Flicks Books, (1996), ISBN 0-948911-86-7 (pbk), £14.95.

The Future of Europe. By Peter Coffey, Aldershot: Edward Elgar, (1995), ISBN 1-85278-586-1 (hardback), £39.95, ISBN 1-85278-587-X (pbk), £12.95.

Global Dangers: Changing Dimensions of International Security. Edited by Sean M. Lynn-Jones, Steven E. Miller, London: the MIT Press, (1996), ISBN O-262-62097-9 (pbk), £13.50;.

New Studies in Post-Cold War Security. Edited by K.R. Dark, Aldershot: Dartmouth Publishing Company, (1996), ISBN 1-85521-728-7 (hardback), £42.50.

Enlarging NATO - The Russian Factor. By Richard L. Kugler with Marianna V. Kozintseva, Santa Monica, CA: National Defense Research Institute and Rand Corporation, (1996), ISBN 0-8330-2357-8, $20.00.     

Renewal processes of phase type

This paper discusses a class of analytically and numerically tractable renewal processes, which generalize the Poisson process. When used to describe interarrival or service times in queues, these renewal processes lead to computationally explicit solutions which involve only real arithmetic. Previous modifications of the Poisson process, based on the Erlang or the hyperexponential distributions, appear as particular cases.     

Optimal dispatching strategies for vehicles having exponentially distributed trip times

A transportation system has N vehicles with no capacity constraint which take passengers from a depot to various destinations and return to the depot. The trip times are considered to be independent and identically distributed random variables. The dispatch strategy at the depot is to dispatch immediately, or to hold any returning vehicles with the objective of minimizing the average wait per passenger at the depot, if passengers arrive at a uniform rate. Optimal control strategies and resulting waits are determined in the special case of exponentially distributed trip time for various N up to N = 15. For N ? 1, the nature of the solution is always to keep a reservoir of vehicles in the depot, and to decrease (increase) the time headway between dispatches as the size of the reservoir gets larger (smaller). For sufficiently large N, one can approximate the number of vehicles in the reservoir by a continuum and obtain analytic experession for the optimal dispatch rate as a function of the number of vehicles in the reservoir. For the optimal strategy, it is shown that the average number of vehicles in the depot is of order N^1/3. These limit properties are expected to be quite insensitive to the actual trip time distribution, but the convergence of the exact properties to the continuum approximation as N → ∞ is very slow.     

Refined prediction for linear regression models

Adequate prediction of a response variable using a multiple linear regression model is shown in this article to be related to the presence of multicollinearities among the predictor variables. If strong multicollinearities are present in the data, this information can be used to determine when prediction is likely to be accurate. A region of prediction, R, is proposed as a guide for prediction purposes. This region is related to a prediction interval when the matrix of predictor variables is of full column rank, but it can also be used when the sample is undersized. The Gorman-Toman ten-variable data is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the region R.     

Shock models with phase type survival and shock resistance

New closure theorems for shock models in reliability theory are presented. If the number of shocks to failure and the times between the arrivals of shocks have probability distributions of phase type, then so has the time to failure. PH-distributions are highly versatile and may be used to model many qualitative features of practical interest. They are also well-suited for algorithmic implementation. The computational aspects of our results are discussed in some detail.