DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

The Towton Battle — A Reinterpretation

The paper re-interprets the implement known as the ‘Towton Battle Axe’ allegedly found in the river which borders the Towton Battlefield (1461), Yorkshire, England, and which now resides in Alnwick Castle, Northumberland. The paper provides parallels, in the form of comparisons with other weapons, in order that the Towton implement can be shown to be a modified former halberd dating from the early sixteenth century. It is, therefore, highly unlikely that the implement was used in the famous battle.     

关于实施2＋6工程推进防消结合的思考

从消防安全“两个能力”建设和灭火救援“六熟悉”工作入手,积极探索防火、灭火工作的互动、结合,形成建设“2 6”工程、推进防消结合的工作构想。着重就“2 6”工程的内涵、意义以及实施“2 6”工程的基本设想进行详细阐述,主要目的是通过分析实施“2 6”工程的必要性、可行性,评估工程效果,为实施“2 6”工程提供依据。     

The Race that wasn't

ABSTRACT

Graham Farmelo's new book on the early British nuclear weapon program assembles a fascinating cast of characters in a gripping narrative. It particularly succeeds at illustrating the importance of “atomic energy” imagery in the United Kingdom well before the discovery of fission, and provides nuanced insights into Churchill's handling of issues relating to the atomic bomb and scientific expertise. However, in arguing that the British had a “lead” on the manufacture of atomic bombs that was “lost” to the United States during the early Manhattan Project, the book overstates its case, and in the process misunderstands what it took to make the bomb.     

科研选题重复因素的分析与对策初探

科研选题中,周期短、见效快的课题重复率较高,其原因与科技人员晋级需求,社会集团易对“短、平、快”选题投资,科研管理人员的情报意识淡漠等因素有关。改变现状需要科技政策的制定者对基础科学研究和从事基础科学研究的人员给予更多的重视和政策的倾斜。科研管理部门应把握科研方向、人才培养、选题调整及发挥专家对审题的充分论证。采取各项综合措施,可望降低科研选题的重复。     

New terrorist threat to India's internal security: the danger from Pakistan's “Karachi Project”

The spectacular commando-style terrorist strike on Mumbai in November 2008 exposed India's lax internal security structure. As nearly all the security apparatus broke down during the long spell of attacks, massive public outrage flared up across the country calling for a firmer government response. Shockingly, India has done little to prevent a recurrence and a new security threat faces the country every single day not merely before but even after the Mumbai attacks. In contrast, Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence and the Lashkar-e-Taiba have successfully evaded pressures from both India and the international community and continue their terror campaign against India under the “Karachi Project” with the explicit intention to unsettle South Asia. Classified documents indicated that India is at the forefront of a cataclysmic “nuclear terrorism” threat from a “combination of Pakistan-based terrorists and homegrown radicals.” This article analyses the danger posed by the Indo-Pak radical groups targeting India and India's lack of preparedness to the new security threat from the “Karachi Project.”     

型号研制与产品数据管理

介绍了产品数据管理(PDM)的概念和基本功能,结合当前型号研制的特点和计算机信息技术应用的状况、发展,研究了型号研制产品数据管理的需求、功能及实施,为当前型号研制依靠CIMS技术实现产品数据管理提出了8条基本原则。