Deterrence Beyond Downunder: Australia and US Security Guarantees since 1955

ABSTRACT

From 1944 to 1973 Australia attempted to acquire atomic weaponry. This ambition was driven by the desire to contribute to defending British interests in Asia, fears of invasion by China, Indonesia, and Japan, great-power war, and the belief that nuclear weapons were merely bigger and better conventional weapons, that they would proliferate, and that US security assurances lacked credibility. Although the pursuit of the bomb was eventually abandoned, this was not the result of US assurances. Rather, geopolitical changes in Australia’s environment meant that a major attack on the continent was unlikely to occur outside the context of a confrontation between the US, China, and the Soviet Union. This article argues that Australia may soon have to rethink its policies towards US extended deterrence and instead focus on developing its own deterrent.     

Democratic control of Romanian intelligence after three decades: quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

ABSTRACT

Romania faced one of the most dramatic transitions from authoritarian communism to become a democracy and a member of the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). The backbone of building a democratic society has been civilian control of the military. This article briefly describes the norms and institutions of democratic control of the intelligence services in Romania and assesses how the mechanisms of democratic control have worked in practice after almost three decades of reform. We argue that many of the post-1989 reforms have been only superficial implemented and monitored, particularly after Romania joined NATO and the EU. The article concludes that the democratic control of intelligence in Romania is an unfinished business. There are structural shortcomings embedded in the process of democracy consolidation that need to be addressed.     

移动式C3I系统导航定位问题的建模和仿真

未来战争是高新技术的对抗,我们要立于不败,就必须积极主动,知己知彼,避免被动挨打。为此,发展移动式Ｃ３Ｉ系统势在必行。移动式Ｃ３Ｉ系统的一个关键问题就是系统的导航定位问题的处理。作者立足实际,为移动式Ｃ３Ｉ系统建立了系统的导航定位问题的模型。针对引起系统导航定位的各种误差原因予以分析,建立了误差模型并进行了仿真,最后给出仿真结果     

基于MGEKF的单站无源定位跟踪算法

单站无源定位跟踪技术具有隐蔽性强、设备简单,系统相对独立等优点,有着广阔的应用前景.为了提高定位精度和收敛速度以满足实时化需求,在现有的基于多普勒变化率的单站无源定位算法的基础上.详细推导了基于MGEKF的定位算法以解决EKF算法的不稳定性,并通过计算机仿真比较了两种算法的性能,结果表明MGEKF定位算法提高了定位精度、收敛速度和稳定度,定位结果能够满足实际需求.     

依据噪声能量变化提取目标运动信息的方法

在对被动噪声声纳接收的噪声能量随时间的变化规律分析的基础上,从理论上分析噪声能量的变化与目标运动参数关系,给出了其中所含目标运动信息的提取方法.     

一种多方位一距离目标定位的最小二乘伴随估计器

对纯方位最小二乘估计器,在已知某时刻一个观测距离的情况下,导出了一种伴随型的目标速度估计器．该算法嵌入原最小二乘估计器之中,计算简单且便于工程应用．     

动基站时差探测系统定位方法研究

针对传统长基线时差探测系统的缺点,提出了全新的动基站时差测量系统并给出了目标的定位原理。在典型布站、信息存在冗余的前提下,通过子集选优法确定了最佳定位算法,并根据工程应用的需要确定了更加合理简捷的定位算法,统计仿真表明了该算法的有效性。最后,计算了目标高度测量精度并归纳了其特点,给出了有益的结论。     

基于声检测的爆炸冲击场剖面可视化技术

阐述了声发射的检测原理,研究了冲击波作用下物体的声发射特性,并利用声发射的不可逆效应(Kaiser效应),提出了一种基于测试的冲击场层析技术.给出了实现流程图及其若干关键技术,如主副鉴别、前沿鉴别等.实验结果表明该技术有一定的实用性,为冲击波作用下物体内部的位错形成和滑移机制的研究提供了一种手段.最后对下一步要解决的问题进行了说明.     

Operational idealism: doctrine development of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army under Soviet threat, 1969–1989

This article analyses the doctrine development of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) coping with the Soviet military threat between 1969 and 1989. In the 1970s, the PLA applied a doctrine of ‘active defence and luring the enemy into depth’ based on its traditional operational art. In 1980, the PLA decided to focus its doctrine on positional defence. In 1986, the PLA introduced ‘integrated operations and prioritised strike’, a generalised doctrine that originated from its war history. Many organisational and intellectual challenges in peacetime doctrine development contributed to the PLA’s operational idealism, including its aging leadership, command structure, attitude towards its previous experience, limited analysis of contemporary military developments, and failure in test and validation of doctrines. In the post-Cold War decade, many of these challenges persisted in spite of military modernization efforts. The ongoing military reform has to address these challenges and improve the PLA doctrine development in peacetime.     

三机协同无源时差定位最优编队构型分析

针对未来空战中航空集群协同无源时差定位编队构型确定问题,提出了一种确定三机协同无源时差定位最优编队构型的方法。分析了确定集群编队构型的基本原理;归纳了4个三机编队构型决定因素:主辅机相对位置、基线夹角、基线距离以及主辅机高度差;将定位区域范围和定位距离作为衡量集群无源定位编队构型优劣的指标,并进行了仿真计算。仿真结果表明:在火控引导阶段,当采用主机在后、辅机在前,基线夹角为150°,基线距离为60 km~80 km,主机与目标同高度且主辅机之间高度差为±(1-2)km的编队构型时,三机协同无源时差定位编队构型为最优。